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Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:00) Girls Day Out Handicap 1200m

Back Me

Hard to knock a youngster that is unbeaten and that is what 1 Sebrakate (Bet Now: $2.60) is for the Hayes/Dabernig team, winning 2/2 to start his career, both in Adelaide. The second win saw him beat two rivals, but the debut win was the one that was impressive. Cuddled and when clear, showed a lovely turn of foot. Is that good enough? I’ll back the judgement of the stable.

Danger

3 Exhilarates (Bet Now: $2.15) is a daughter of Snitzel on debut for the James Cummings stable. Regally bred out of the Blue Diamond winner Samaready, so she’s bred to be a good one. The trial was just okay I thought. Ridden out, but did respond when second to Crystal Falls over 745m. Sure to be well educated.

Long Shot

2 Chia (Bet Now: $11.00) is a daughter of Rubick for Brad Widdup who was unwanted in betting when debuting under the lights at Canterbury but despite being well held, I thought she was far from disgraced when third to Intrepidacious. Not sure she can beat these, but she does have race experience on her side.

Race 2. (12:35) 2019 Membership Handicap (76) 1400m

Back Me

3 Coterie (Bet Now: $5.00) for me. Really like this three year old for Gerald Ryan, who is 2/2 this time in. Massive win first up at Wyong before going to Gosford where he was on speed and proved too good. Has really good form around him and continues to step up to the plate. I think he can measure up here on his home track.

Danger

1 Royal Celebration (Bet Now: $1.90) was touted as a possible horse to head to Flemington for the 1400m race on Saturday but instead runs here. He got a well deserved win a fortnight back at Randwick and the key to him was finding a race with less depth and getting back on top of the ground. Won well and he can go right on with it now.

Long Shot

4 Singing Sand (Bet Now: $9.00) is a James Cummings trained filly who had trialled up well prior to resuming over 1300m at Warwick Farm on a sticky track. Wasn’t the best of set ups, but she was too good and I think the horses she beat were above average, so I’m respecting that form and giving her a chance here.

Race 3. (13:10) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m

Back Me

Really keen to play on 2 Lawan (Bet Now: $9.50). This bloke ran in a 1400m Highway at Randwick a month ago and ran a beauty in defeat I thought when second to Tristan De Angel. Stable has had a really good record in the Highway in recent times and third up, he should just about be ready to show his best.

Danger

3 Seeblume (Bet Now: $10.00) a definite threat for me. Joseph Ible trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since September 22 when winning a Highway over 1500m here under a lovely steer from Hugh Bowman. Break between runs looks no issue for mine and her tick over trial at Canberra over 900m was very good. Happy to give her a look.

Long Shot

11 The Debater (Bet Now: $51.00) should be respected for Rod Northam. Five year old who ran over 1400m on Coonabarabran Cup Day and had to like the way the way he savaged the line from the back, rounding them up out wide to get the win. Harder here, but he’s in the right stable, has upside and will be strong late.

Race 4. (13:50) Schweppes Handicap (88) 1500m

Back Me

Looks a good race for the Kris Lees trained 1 Karavali (Bet Now: $14.00). Was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1400m at Randwick on a very testing surface but I thought she did a good job in defeat behind Mahalangur. Won a Group lll second up last prep in a race that has produced five winners. Just hoping she gets cover, a cold steer and last look.

Danger

There was a query on 2 Sexy Eyes (Bet Now: $1.50) running a strong 1400m when racing at Randwick two weeks ago but she absolutely bolted in and ran the trip right out with purpose. Off that, she should have no issue with 1500m and I think she’ll be much better on firmer footing, and this isn’t the strongest of races going around.

Long Shot

4 Velocita (Bet Now: $5.00) comes back to 1500m after racing over the mile at Warwick Farm last time out where she had to lump 59.5kg and did a really good job in defeat I thought when beaten under a length by Kaapfever in fourth. Better on top of the ground, really good weight relief and certainly appeals here.

Race 5. (14:30) Eden Brae Homes Handicap (78) 1400m

Back Me

Really like 7 Chaussure (Bet Now: $2.90) as a horse and the only reason he isn’t on top is the potential second up syndrome off a long break. Really liked his resumption at Randwick when working home strongly to run a close up fourth to Gitan. If he improves off that, he’ll win. Just think second up off a near two year break, I’m on guard.

Danger

4 Reflectivity (Bet Now: $5.50) is an All Too Hard gelding first up for the Hawkes camp. He has shown pretty good promise right throughout his career but hasn’t quite delivered on his potential. At his best, he can certainly beat these, and I thought the trial behind Legerity was pretty good to the eye. Can win with luck.

Long Shot

1 Gambler’s Blues (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Shamardal gelding resuming for the Tim Martin stable. This eight year old hasn’t raced for just over 10 months since running midfield over 1800m at Randwick. Been given a really good break and I thought his trial last week was pretty good behind Sea The Master. One to watch in the yard.

Race 6. (15:10) ATC Handicap (78) 2000m

Back Me

He’s the obvious way is 1 Sky Boy (Bet Now: $1.85) and now with Gamblestown out, I’ll default to the fav. Must say though he’s well found in the markets. Perhaps rightfully so? Impressive win at Randwick two weeks ago when on speed and dashing clear late. Form franked via Savacool. I think he’ll win but couldn’t back at the odds. Perhaps take him in multis.

Danger

11 Miss Shanti (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Chris Waller mare who is starting to find some form. Loved the way she toughed it out to win over 1800m on the Kensington track at Randwick last Wednesday under a confident steer from Angland, with the mare finishing best, and racing as if the extra trip will suit. This race isn’t strong.

Long Shot

2 Solo Mission (Bet Now: $16.00) gets a throw at the stumps for me. Chris Waller trains this stayer, who comes through the Sky Boy race at Randwick from two weeks ago and I thought his effort wasn’t too bad given the slow midrace fractions, which clearly didn’t suit him. Hopefully gets a rolling tempo this time around and be strong late.

Race 7. (15:50) The Agency Real Estate Handicap (88) 1300m

Back Me

Looks a lovely race for 6 Dyslexic (Bet Now: $2.60). This mare was well backed when resuming in the Nivison at Randwick three weeks ago and I thought she was very good in seemingly the quicksand behind Resin. Second up stats a tad misleading given second up last prep she ran a beauty behind Houtzen. That reads well for this.

Danger

4 Coruscate (Bet Now: $3.10) is a talented galloper for James Cummings who looked a good thing when racing at Randwick a fortnight ago and under a confident steer from Brenton Avdulla, he proved far too good for them, albeit he beat scrubs. Much more depth here, but is in winning form and should be respected.

Long Shot

1 Gaulois (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Street Cry first up for James Cummings. He had a pretty hectic Autumn/Winter prep but for the most part ran really well, ending the prep with a mile win at Randwick under a lovely rail hugging steer from Jason Collett and keep in mind the prep also saw him beat a Group l performer in Iconoclasm. Two trials have been encouraging and can sprint well fresh. Watch the market.

Race 8. (16:30) Oh No Darren The Big Five Oh Sprint (78) 1100m

Back Me

I’m anticipating the track to be somewhat on speed so I’ll have a throw at the stumps via the Queenslander 5 I’ve Gotta Nel (Bet Now: $6.50), who has had two runs for the Barry Lockwood team. Just missed first up when beaten on the peg by Bold Chance before being given a three week let up and turning the tables on Bold Chance. 1100m is the little niggle but if the track plays towards those on pace, he’ll take beating.

Danger

3 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $3.30) is a talented son of Bon Hoffa resuming for the Jason Deamer team. This bloke is blessed with so much talent but I think perhaps he has been aimed a touch high. He’s contested Provincial Championship Qualifiers and Final before some city runs where he looked to race like a tired horse. Looked sharp in a recent Newcastle trial and is a bomb when produced fresh.

Long Shot

11 Rockin’ Ruga (Bet Now: $16.00) is a WaterBott trained gelding that resumes. This bloke kicked off his career in the Summer with four runs, the highlight being a narrow but decent enough maiden win at Warwick Farm. Went like a jet in a recent Randwick trial and off that, he definitely has the gate speed to cross these.

Race 9. (17:20) Rosehill Bowling Club After Party Sprint (78) 1100m

Back Me

13 Falerina (Bet Now: $6.50) just has to stretch her speed to 1100m. She was heavily backed when resuming over 900m at Newcastle and despite a few nervous moments, her class kicked in and she proved too good. No doubt she’ll be near the lead and look the winner. Last 100m will be the test for her but she’ll give a sight.

Danger

7 Regimen (Bet Now: $6.50) is a James Cummings trained mare who has shown good ability throughout her career. She resumed at the midweeks on the Kensington track where she was good in defeat when a close up fourth to Fox Swift. Tick over trial at Rosehill looked encouraging and she has a decent second up record.

Long Shot

1 Smart Amelia (Bet Now: $11.00) could blouse these with the right run off a fast speed. Quality mare resuming for the Bjorn Baker who hasn’t raced since the Mona Lisa at Wyong when down the track behind Savatiano. Interesting she resumes without a trial, but has a touch of class about her and the speed will be on, so she’ll get her chance.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Lawan

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Sebrakate

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 1 Karavali

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11, 15

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 11

Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 10, 13

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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