Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Idyllic Prince Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:16) D'Orsogna Plate 1200m
4 Pablo’s Poem (Bet Now: $3.60) for me. Son of Lope De Vega who resumes for Sean Casey and his stable is just starting to simmer along nicely as we get closer to the Ascot Carnival. This bloke debuted over 1000m at Ascot back in May where he ran a most encouraging second to impressive juvenile Market Ruler. Been given a good break and trialled well here recently, winning his trial.
2 Classic Pro (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven day back up for Mike Santich after racing over 1300m here last Saturday where she got well back in the run but she saved ground near the inside and once he got clear air, she charged to the line and nabbed Double Bubble on the line. Back to 1200m the query, but she will be strong late.
1 Fire And Rain (Bet Now: $7.50) is a speed conveyance for Paul Jordan who should be given serious respect. Was six weeks between runs when racing over 1000m here a fortnight back where he sat outside the speed and looked to travel well until the home turn when under pressure and was seemingly going nowhere but picked up late when second to Flirtini. Up to 1200m the question mark, but will be out of trouble on speed.
Race 2. (13:51) Tabtouch Maiden 1650m
3 Kelly’s Secret (Bet Now: $1.95) should be winning this. Third up now for Adam Durrant, he should be ready to show his best. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where Smith gave the horse every chance to win but the class of Patrocity was a bit much. Like him up to the mile and the depth is nowhere near as strong.
12 Oriental Rose (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Dan Morton trained mare who is just over two weeks between runs since racing over 1300m at Northam where she got well back in the ruck and worked home okay late but didn’t really have a turn of foot when fourth to Monsoon. Like her up to the mile and Pike on a good lead.
6 Arnie’s Pride (Bet Now: $13.00) should be suited by the rise to the mile. Ran in a 1400m maiden here a couple of Wednesdays back where he got back to last in the run before peeling to the outside on the turn and finishing off nicely behind Pagan Image, who ran well last Saturday. Blinkers FT and is another that is third up.
Race 3. (14:26) Apprentices Cup (66+) 2200m
5 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $9.50) on top but it’s a race I’m not enthused about. Michael Lane trains this seven year old, who is fourth up here, so he should just about be at peak fitness. Ran over 2100m here last time where he got well back on the rail and did make ground late without threatening behind Kensington Abbey. Claim for Fiona Bell helps and he does have upside.
4 Taxadermy (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained gelding who probably has the class to beat these. Just needs to tick the 2200m box. Ran over the mile a fortnight back here and he looked to have his chance but was beaten by a pretty good one I think in the shape of Sense Of Power. Query at the trip, but should get every chance from the draw.
11 Young Thor (Bet Now: $6.50) is a stablemate of Taxadermy who is probably in the same boat. Has the ability to beat these but a question mark on the staying prowess. Was a heavily backed fav when racing over the mile here a couple of Wednesdays back but seemingly had his chance I thought when down the track behind Fair Sonari. Really decent weight relief and has upside also.
Race 4. (15:01) Jockey Celebration Day Handicap (72+) 1000m
Hoping that 8 How To Fly (Bet Now: $3.50) gets the suck run behind the hot speed and has last say. This mare produced quite a consistent prep during the Summer/Autumn, always around the mark against her own age. Resumes as an older mare but looked sharp enough in a recent trial to suggest she’s forward enough to win first up.
5 Night Voyage (Bet Now: $4.60) is on the seven day back up for Martin Allan after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he loomed large to win the race but just missed out at the hands of Khan, even throwing in an unsuccessful protest. Hard fit, in form, down in the weights and a wet track certainly no issue.
3 Tenterden (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Danehill Express resuming for the Pearce team. This gelding hasn’t raced since late February when finishing midfield down the Pinjarra straight behind One Short. Resumes with no trials but can sprint well fresh and if he’s right to go, the speed engaged here will suit his pattern.
Race 5. (15:41) Di Florio Handicap (1MW) 1200m
The give in the track just leans me the way of 5 Electric Light (Bet Now: $2.10), a proven wet track who has done a fab job in her first prep for the Adam Durrant team. Ran over this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back where she started near odds and won like a good horse in spacing her rivals without being fully extended. Wet track a big tick, so I’ll go with her.
The weather will decide how strong the winning chances are of 1 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $2.70) because I think he’ll need a dry track to get his best chance of success. He got that a fortnight back here and gee he was dominant, the way he put them away was that of a horse who could easily measure up at blacktype level. Wet track the only concern.
9 Lady Le Jean (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Justin Warwick trained mare on the quick turnaround after racing last Saturday over 1000m here where she was run off her legs early but once she balanced up, she attacked the line strongly late to run third to Khan. Up to 1200m will suit her and she’s getting fitter. Knockout chance. Just has to overcome the barrier.
Race 6. (16:21) Russell/Taylor Owners Day Handicap (72+) 1400m
Giving the nod 4 General Husson (Bet Now: $5.00). Has been racing so well in recent times for the Adam Durrant team but can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran over 1200m here last Wednesday where he looked as if he was going to win but he wanted to lay in and Mollie Clark didn’t seem that strong with the whip in her left hand. Pike now on. Big tick.
1 Get Over It (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Jim Taylor trained son of Saxon who resumed over 1200m here a fortnight ago where Witten gave the gelding a beaut run in transit, landing the 1/1 and poised to win. Looked the winner when he presented but Great Again just had a touch too much close and got the job done. Fitter and the wet track certainly no disadvantage.
2 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $21.00) looks to be going well for Colin Webster but not sure if he’s waiting to get back onto Ascot. In saying that, his run here last Saturday over 1200m was more than encouraging, working home well when eventually clear behind impressive Crystal Spirit. 1400m a big tick and like he is on the quick back up.
Race 7. (17:01) Idyllic Prince Stakes 1300m
It’s short of his best distance but the class here is 1 Pounamu (Bet Now: $3.40). Had three runs in the early part of the Winter and each time he ran so bravely behind Material Man. Didn’t trial as well as Man Booker but draws better and does have the class factor, which will take him a long way towards victory for mine.
2 Man Booker (Bet Now: $2.60) is the clear watch horse. Dan Morton trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since the Northerly last year where he finished down the track behind Silverstream. Has been kept on ice with the Carnival in mind and he looked outstanding in the trial win mentioned above. Pike booked a good lead also.
10 By Decree (Bet Now: $21.00) is one horse who certainly won’t mind the track having give in it. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight back where she got off the pace and never really looked likely but worked home late behind Great Again. Not sure she has the class to beat these, but gets a soft run from the gate and has fitness.
Race 8. (17:40) Amelia Park Handicap (1MW) 1650m
8 Rose’s Shadow (Bet Now: $9.00) for me in the get out. This gelding was pretty poor first up, admittedly over an unsuitable trip on a bog. Was much better last time over this track/distance when third to Sense Of Power. Won his lone third up start…don’t think he wants a genuine bog, but has trialled well on soft ground.
1 Sense Of Power (Bet Now: $4.50) is the best horse in the race but it’ll be a huge effort to win from the gate and conceding weight to the boys. She did the latter component a fortnight ago in the race mentioned above and led all the way for a dominant win. Will have to do more work this time around, but have to like the way she’s going about it.
3 Capricorn Dancer (Bet Now: $8.00) is on the seven day back up for Colin Webster after racing over 1400m here last Saturday where she didn’t get the best of luck in the straight when appearing to have something to offer to my eye behind Reykjavik. I think up to the mile will suit and has clearly pleased the stable given she’s racing again immediately.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Electric Light
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Kelly’s Secret
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Rose’s Shadow
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 5
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 10
Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 10, 12
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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