1/8/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Darwin, Darwin Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Darwin on Monday, where it is Darwin Cup Day. The weather is fine and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I’ll start this preview by saying there are a stack of runners also accepted and likely to run on Saturday, so these tips could change. Opening race of the day but I think 2 Global Wonder (Bet Now: $3.40) is one of the better bets on the program. I don’t religiously watch Darwin races, but I’ve watched enough to know that the get back/run on set up is ideal for this track and Global Wonder loves that. 2/3 this time in, the two wins seeing him sit off the speed and launch late. Might need luck from the gate, but if he gets it, I think he’ll be too good.

3 Patria (Bet Now: $3.60) is a key threat. He ran in a WFA contest just over two weeks ago where he was trying to force his way into the Palmerston Sprint but could only manage a third to Devil’s Temptation after seemingly getting every chance. Back to this grade, he appeals for sure.

6 Halgard (Bet Now: $10.00) will also sit off the genuine tempo and be strong at the end. He ran over 1300m here on Wednesday when wide no cover for the trip but despite that, he tried his guts out when third to Autocratic. He draws to get a soft run in transit and Sairyn Fawke, his riding style and the way he lifts them, is very much suited for Darwin.

Bar Plates first time terrifies me with 1 Akoni (Bet Now: $2.15), but he does look the most likely of this bunch. He’s had two runs in Darwin, catching the eye fresh when second, a closing second. He broke the maiden tag last time out with sustained speed coming to the fore. As I said, the Bar Plates worry me, but I think he has a bit on these.

6 Real Valentia (Bet Now: $4.60) has been pretty good in three runs this time in, all coming on this track. He ran over this track/distance on Wednesday where they rode him positively and battled away really well in defeat when second. I reckon if they ride him with a sit, you’ll see a much better effort.

3 Fraction Late (Bet Now: $9.00) will be warming to the task late. He’s had two career outings and was okay on debut. He then was ridden negatively last time out and the end result was a strong finale to wear them down and win nicely. Likely gets dragged back from the gate, but will be strong at the end.

I like 1 Rising Sphere (Bet Now: $1.65) for Gary Clarke. He’s had two runs for the stable. Clear forgive fresh after copping a nasty check at the start. He made amends last start, leading throughout and spanking them by over six lengths. He’s a short course horse so 1100m here suits and the depth is a touch on the thin side. Keen.

2 Isola Bay (Bet Now: $SP.00) is the key threat. He has the Rob Gulberti polish and this stable rarely misfires when it comes to Darwin. He ran over 1200m here last time out and I thought was given a peach by Rawiller. He had a suck run and railed up nicely before angling clear and launching late to run second. Fast run 1100m suits. Just depends where he gets to in the run and how far back he gets.

7 Madam Mischief (Bet Now: $9.00) is a must for exotics. This mare ran second to Rising Sphere in that race mentioned above where she was near the speed throughout and tried hard, but was simply no match for the dominant winner. I doubt she turns the stables, but runs well regardless.

2 Ideas Man (Bet Now: $2.15) is down to run in the Palmerston on Saturday, so I am looking at him prior to that run. He has been a revelation since heading to Darwin and his jump/run style is ideal for the short course here, and at WFA, he just looks so well in. He’s the one they have to beat.

7 Mini Boom (Bet Now: $4.60) saves her best for Darwin and with gate one, she’s the one to beat if Ideas Man doesn’t turn up. Shared the spoils with Global Wonder two back before sitting wide no cover last time, doing work, and that early burn just told. Gate one, she’ll hold a forward spot and be around the mark.

Best version of 5 Belmont Day (Bet Now: $4.50) is quite capable. Got back and didn’t fire fresh behind Niewand before going to 1100m here where they rode him with intent and it somewhat backfired, just feeling the pinch late when fourth to Our Luca. Third up, hard fit, he gets a look.

10 Southern Bolt (Bet Now: $7.00) is definitely worth an each way speck. He has a fab record at Darwin and will be strong late. He ran over this track/distance on Wednesday where he got a fair way out of his ground and worked to the line pretty well late in the piece when second to dominant winner We Will Remember. Gets a significant jockey upgrade and the tempo will be genuine, so he’ll get his chance.

1 We Will Remember (Bet Now: $3.00) has a tricky gate to overcome, but he’s progressive and heading in the right direction. He won the race mentioned above from Wednesday when sitting near the speed throughout before being clicked up by Todd and he went through his gears nicely to win impressively. Hard to beat with luck from the draw.

12 Lady Tucan (Bet Now: $9.00) is a knockout chance. She’s still a maiden after three runs, but she is showing promise. Several weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she got back in the run and while she was never a threat, I liked the way she finished her race off. Dangerous if the inside gate is used to advantage.

3 Wolfburn (Bet Now: $1.85) is the one they have to beat. He comes back to the mile from 2050m after contesting the NT Derby. He looked to have every chance in the run but IMO, he just didn’t run the trip out when second to Venting. Back to the mile is a big tick and this looks a serious drop in depth.

2 Dataset (Bet Now: $3.80) is racing in really good form at the moment, being 2/2 at the track, both wins at this trip. Latest win came last Saturday where he led throughout and was dominant. He got the staggers late but had a big enough break. He’ll land in front and give them something to chase.

5 Lunch Session (Bet Now: $11.00) can fill a first four spot. He was near the speed in the Dataset race mentioned above from last Saturday and tried hard, but he did the donkey work in chasing and that effort just told late. I doubt he wins, but is a must for wider multiples I’d suggest.

3 The Mistral (Bet Now: $2.30) needs luck from the tricky gate, but if he gets it, good luck beating him. Former NSW galloper that has had a couple of runs for Gary Clarke, both here. Was a real eye catcher first up when second. Last start they rode him quiet, sitting off the speed, before finding clear air and away he went, spanking them. He’s got more to come, you’d assume, and with that in mind, he should be winning.

4 Brimarvi Rooboy (Bet Now: $4.20) is the only horse I can see beating The Mistral. Strong on speed win two back before he was ridden with a sit last start and worked to the line well without threatening. I think gate one has to be used and try to get a head start on The Mistral. Dangerous, to an extent, if that eventuates.

11 Tony’s Reward (Bet Now: $16.00) will be one warming to the task at the end. He ran on Wednesday here and bombed the start, which sealed his fate when beating one runner home in a field of six. Hopefully can jump clean, find his feet, track up and be strong late. First four contender.

Back to 1300m I really like for 6 Write Your Name (Bet Now: $12.00). Another stride and he wins first up when a closing second to Mighty Murt. He then went to the Metric Mile on a potential Darwin Cup path but he didn’t quite fire behind Living The Dream. Back to this level and back in trip, he’ll sit back and launch late.

3 Autocratic (Bet Now: $3.00) has been a ripper for Gary Clarke and will give a bold sight from the front. Dominant win on Wednesday at this track/distance, leading throughout with sustained speed coming to the fore. Last bit will test, but he’ll look the winner for a fair chunk.

7 Don’t Wait (Bet Now: $19.00) should be suited up in trip. Just over two weeks between runs since resuming over 1100m here where they rode him forward and he gave a sight for a brief period, but just knocked up late. Good track/distance record and has more upside than most.

I am really surprised that 8 Lady Whistledown (Bet Now: $3.30) isn’t favourite. This filly has been excellent in two runs on this track, each time getting a fair way out of her ground but has attacked the line on both occasions, the latest start seeing her bolt up over the mile back on July 13. She seems to be thriving both on the dirt and with conservative tactics, so with that in mind, I am keen on her taking this out.

6 Jet Jackson (Bet Now: $5.00) has placed at the trip previously and I think will be suited up to it again. Ran over the mile here last Saturday and I thought closed off his race really well behind tearaway dominant winner Dataset. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

4 Holster (Bet Now: $8.00) is a definite winning chance for Team Yargi. He’s had two runs on the track. First run saw him pull up with an elevated heart rate in a total forgive. Last start he was wide throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Dataset. A win wouldn’t shock at all, especially with a rise in trip.

It’s hard to get away from 1 Living The Dream (Bet Now: $2.50). First run for Rob Gulberti came in the Metric Mile where he was given a peach by Rawiller and as the race went further, he got better and was dominant. He’ll only be better up to 2000m, fitter, maps ideally, Rawiller sticks…normally I like finding one at a price in the Cup, but this year, it looks straight forward.

3 Playoffs (Bet Now: $4.20) has home track advantage and has been set for the race. Loved the ticker he showed to win the Chief Minister’s first up. He had to take a narrow gap and was there to be beaten, but he found and on the line was edging clear. If he can overcome the gate, he has the class edge.

4 Trident (Bet Now: $20.00) is the one at odds I could entertain. He was very good in the Alice Springs Cup and has had two prep runs for the Darwin Cup, the latest a closing fourth in the Chief Minister’s. I’d love to see him settle closer from the good draw. At the odds, he’s the saver bet.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 The Mistral

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Global Wonder

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Southern Bolt

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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