Eight races will be run and won at Moonee Valley this Friday night. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (18:00) Quest Moonee Valley Handicap (64) 1600m
Just how good is 4 Heart Of Puissance? (Bet Now: $2.60) I think we’ll get a bit of an idea here. His debut win at Warrnambool was stunning. Johnny Allen didn’t get stuck in at all in the colt, did it soft yet still ran good time relative to the day. If he’s as good as he looks, he wins this and better races. Just needs to do it again to make sure that the hype/boom is around the mark.
3 Defiant Dancer (Bet Now: $2.70) has been up a little while for Phillip Stokes but continues to race pretty well. He comes through the Gothic from just under two weeks ago at Caulfield when just off the speed and trying hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Alabama Express. Little bit of a query at 1600m, but the claim for Nugent certainly helps.
The best version of 1 Fabulanski (Bet Now: $15.00) would see him smash this field but just no idea where he is at this prep. He comes through the Vase last Saturday when leading and then drifting away from the fence under pressure and dropped out behind Soul Patch. This is the weakest field he’s faced in some time and if he brings anything near his best, he can win.
Race 2. (18:30) Daemco Plate 1600m
5 Sayl (Bet Now: $8.00) looks one of the better bets on the program. Chris Waller trains this four year old, who ran in a maiden on Moe Cup Day when back in the run and finding the line strongly out wide where the pattern suited those on speed early on in the day before the rain came. Had a jumpout last week at Flemington and he showed gate speed to lead. If he can show that here, I think he wins.
6 Call Me Shamus (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the one to beat on form. This three year old resumed in a maiden on Cranbourne Cup Day when back and wide before Johnny Allen was forced to go very wide on the turn, hitting the front and giving a good kick but no match late for the hard fit Floreat Pica. Should sit closer in the run from the good draw and has the right form around him.
Up in trip should suit 4 Sandman (Bet Now: $6.00). He resumed in a Warrnambool maiden when back near last in the run before sweeping around the field and looking the winner but Heart Of Puissance got the split and was too good. If that horse wins the opener, that’ll strengthen the form furthermore and he has showed a bit of ability since his first jumpout prior to the debut.
Race 3. (19:00) Ranvet Handicap (64) 1200m
I think 5 Lord Kensington (Bet Now: $4.40) can measure up here. Archie Alexander trains this three year old, who debuted in a maiden on Horsham Cup Day when leading throughout under Jordan Childs and landed some good bets in a dominant all the way triumph. Harder here, but has early toe so hopefully can take care of the wide gate early and prove hard to run down.
3 Beehunter (Bet Now: $4.40) is a fascinating runner. John Sadler trained veteran of just one start, which came over 1300m at Bendigo when well backed at odds and gee he was tough in winning. Was asked to go a tad early in the run and there to be chased down, but showed good ticker late and held on to beat Banquo, who franked that form by bolting up next start. Hard to beat.
10 Somals (Bet Now: $7.00) won well on debut at Benalla and the step up in distance here should definitely suit being by Helmet. A much tougher task on Friday night but outside of the two favourites she looks one that could improve enough to win.
Race 4. (19:30) United Refrigeration Handicap (64) 1000m
Happy to speck 9 Unicorny (Bet Now: $8.00) each way. She was specked at odds when resuming in a Pakenham maiden and the bets at odds were landed. Jamie Mott gave her a sweet steer just off the speed before getting into clear air and finishing best to win impressively. If Mott can take advantage of gate and land the box seat, I think this mare will run a decent race at good odds.
6 Enjoy Elsie (Bet Now: $4.80) gets another chance. This mare had been trialling up enormous prior to resuming on Moe Cup Day where she was absolutely legless on the bog surface and couldn’t pick her feet up when last to Guess Again. Back on top of the ground and draw outside Germanotta, Dunn should be able to get over and land on speed rather comfortably.
2 Tatiara (Bet Now: $5.00) returns to a relatively weak 64 after resuming in the Alinghi at Caulfield where she was well held, outclassed, but far from disgraced behind Humma Humma, who is absolutely flying at the moment, so that form reads very well, she draws a soft gate, gets the claim for Nugent and the big tick for her is that the Blinkers go on for the first time.
Race 5. (20:00) 55 Second Challenge Heat 4 (70) 955m
I think the bet here is 7 Roddandtood (Bet Now: $6.00) for Daniel Bowman. Resumed over 1000m at Cranbourne where she was off the speed and tried very hard, finishing off with real purpose to run second to Arrochar. Proven performer in these races and should get a sweet trip in transit from the gate, plus will be strong late compared to some of these, who will be paddling the final 50m.
Couldn’t possibly touch 9 Rebel Miss (Bet Now: $4.20) to win with borrowed money, but given the lack of depth engaged here, she has to be a winning chance. She was ridden aggressively at Warwick Farm last time and almost pinched it, but walked the final few strides when nabbed late by Appian Way. If those tactics are adopted here, she’ll take some beating.
2 Gibbon (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Barry Goodwin trained veteran who would go close to winning if he brings his best. He ran on Seymour Cup Day and was held up for a few strides but for the most part, he had his chance behind impressive Tahitian Dancer in a race which looked to have depth to it. Gets a soft run from the gate and if the breaks go his way, he can win this.
Race 6. (20:30) 3 Point Motors Handicap (70) 2500m
The Payne/Egan combo has been lethal in recent weeks and I think it can continue via 2 Defibrillate (Bet Now: $2.20), who had his first run for the stable on Moe Cup Day where Egan gave him a sweet sit just off the speed before angling clear at the top of the straight and he let down strongly to get the job done. Bred to eat up a trip and you’d like to assume he has a fair amount of upside compared to most of these.
I’m very wary of 10 Tavistock Dancer (Bet Now: $3.90), who rises to 2500m and it looks as though that trip will suit. Early on in the prep, he was terrible but the last couple of runs have been enough to suggest a win isn’t far off. Thought he had every chance at Caulfield last time out but the winner was Double You Tee and we saw what that horse did here last Friday night. Likely goes back to near last from the gate but has a touch of quality when right.
I think the 3000m races is when 7 Alienated (Bet Now: $18.00) will come into his own. In saying that, I do like him up to 2500m. Lumped 63kg on Sale Cup Day last start over 2200m and battled away well without really threatening behind Rakau Whero. Georgina Cartwright rides the horse very well and he gets decent weight relief this time around. Think backing him to place isn’t the worst play.
Race 7. (21:00) Simpson Construction Handicap (64) 1600m
3 Nicajon (Bet Now: $9.00) is worth a throw at the stumps each way. Quinton Scott has this bloke going very well I reckon. Went around like it was a barrier trial two back at Ballarat before going to Hamilton when back near last in the run and finishing off strongly to run sixth to Shifty Shamus. Can sit much closer in the run from the better gate and racing as if 1600m suits.
5 Vigere (Bet Now: $2.50) should take some beating here for Linda Meech. Scooted along at a good clip last start at Caulfield and gave a good kick in the straight under Prebble but couldn’t quite see it out when a close up third to Extreme Pride. Meech takes over and the tempo should be more controlling one would assume, and we know she’s elite when steering front runners.
1 Sacred Theme (Bet Now: $15.00) is one that can add some value to multiples. This guy has been quite good in two runs back from a spell. Resumed with a seventh at Geelong, beaten under a length. He then went to Hamilton and finished off well from the back behind a handy galloper in Diplomac Jack. Gets a soft run from the inside gate and with a good speed in front, he’ll get his chance provided he gets clear air.
Race 8. (21:30) Antler Luggage Handicap (64) 1200m
7 Ambleve (Bet Now: $2.50) is an Archie Alexander trained mare who is a month between runs since sitting on speed at this track/distance before being clicked up and showing good change up speed to put her rivals away and holding a safe margin to the line in winning. Building up a pretty good overall record and from the gate, Childs looks to have a few options.
10 Sora (Bet Now: $2.80) looks one of the hardest to beat. This Hayes/Dabernig trained mare was well fancied when resuming at Bendigo but looked to have her chance near the speed when a narrow second to Mister Jay, who has won again since, and the third place horse just missed out on a win earlier this week, so the form reads well. Just a matter of where she gets to from the gate.
The best version of 1 Thorondor (Bet Now: $9.00) would see him go close to beating these. Resumes for Robbie Laing, having not raced since finishing down the track at Sandown behind the then flying Not Enough Effort. Has won first up in the past and his recent Cranbourne jumpout was pretty good, so keen to see how he goes here because he does have a touch of class when right.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Defibrillate
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Lord Kensington
BEST VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Nicajon
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 9, 10
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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