Weather will determine if Chance Bye runs at Rosehill on Saturday but trainer Mick Tubman is full of confidence the filly is ready to return a winner.
“She is going to run if there is no more rain,” Tubman said.
“If the track is in the dead range she’ll run but if it’s slow or worse she won’t. And if she runs she’ll win. She is flying.”
Chance Bye is entered for the Group Three Birthday Card Stakes (1200m) and has barrier two with regular jockey Kathy O’Hara to ride.
Rosehill was rated in the slow range on Thursday after 74.5mm of rain fell at the track earlier in the week.
The fairytale filly of last year’s autumn carnival, Chance Bye won her first three races as a two-year-old including the Silver Slipper Stakes before finishing ninth in Crystal Lily’s Golden Slipper.
Chance Bye’s spring campaign didn’t go to plan for Tubman.
“She got smashed in the Golden Rose (second-up) and I had a lot of trouble with her shoulder after that,” Tubman said.
“From the Golden Rose on I had nothing but trouble with her, and then that race at Flemington (in November) she just doesn’t handle wet tracks. I’m not even going to try her on wet tracks anymore.”
After her 10th in the Golden Rose the filly went to Moonee Valley and was fourth in the Champagne Stakes (1200m).
Tubman then gave her a freshen-up before the Listed Gucci Stakes (1200m) at Flemington where she finished 10th of 13 on a slow track.
The Kembla-based trainer almost didn’t accept for the Birthday Card Stakes because of the wet conditions in the Illawarra which caused last Sunday’s Keith Nolan Classic meeting at the track to be called off.
“I wouldn’t have accepted if I had not been able to gallop her on Wednesday morning,” Tubman said.
“But I was able to give her a gallop on Wednesday on the sand and that was all she needed.”
Tubman believes the three-year-old is a six-length better horse now compared to 12 months ago and said that was highlighted in a recent jumpout at Kembla when the filly clocked 45.56 seconds for 800m.
“Before that the best she had run was 46.3 seconds,” Tubman said.
The Listed Gosford Guineas (1200m) on April 17 and the Scone Inglis Guineas (1600m) on May 14 are the two races Tubman is aiming at with Chance Bye this preparation.
AAP TURF
