IASbet.com expert racing analyst, Gerard Twomey previews the main chances in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.
Looks to be the strongest Melbourne Cup for many years. Superstar So You Think is beautifully weighted on 56kg having won four Group Ones since weights released. He’s a slight query the trip in fast run race. The emerging young stayers in Linton and Maluckyday look to have beaten the handicapper and will be very strong at the end. Of the internationals, not much between Americain, Manighar and Holberg. Shocking has definitely paid the price for winning last year and with 6kg weight rise he faces a massive task to win from the outside alley.
From a betting perspective, So You Think has been well backed from $3.80 into $3.20 and the money continues for him. Holberg has been well backed from $26.00 into $17.0 and he’s now back out to $21.00. There’s been some specking for Linton who’s been $21.00 into $19.00. Shocking has been the big drifter, $9.00 out to $12.00 while Americain has been solid at around $12.00.
Shocking
Up 6kg on last year and faces huge task from outside alley. Poorly weighted but racing well and is a genuine stayer.
So You Think
Won four Group Ones since weight released, very well in with 56kg slight doubt trip if it’s a fast run race. He’s the star of Australian racing so nothing would surprise.
Americain
Drops in weight from good Geelong cup, should get a good run and looks a winning chance.
Descarado
Caulfield Cup winner, penalised 1.5kg for that win. Should get the run of the race from barrier 1 with Nash Rawiller on top.
Manighar
Lightly raced improver with form through Americain and Holberg. Definite chance if he can overcome wide alley.
Holberg
Lightly traced improver specifically targeted at this race and has good form around Manighar and Americain and looks Godolphin’s best chance to finally claim the holy grail. Definite winning chance.
Precedence
Zabeel racing consistently penalised twice this campaign, weighted up to his best and can go a bit keen, some doubts about him running a strong 3200.
Linton
Not given the best of rides in the fast run Lexus, good jockey change to Brett Prebble, he appears beaten the handicapper and definite chance on the quick back up.
Once Were Wild
Found form in the fast run Lexus, she looks the leader and will give a great sight if she’s taken no harm from Saturdays run.
Maluckyday
Emerging young Zabeel stayer found the line very strongly in the Lexus will be the testing material if the favourite fails to stay. This year’s Shocking?
