Andrew Hawkins and Joseph Galati give us an in depth preview on what is a wide open Australian Cup, view the runner by runner preview.
Runners:
1. Shocking
AH: It’s surely D-Day for him. Back to headquarters will suit, and he’s probably one of the only horses suited at weight for age really. But I don’t know, I just find it hard to warm to him. Especially from the wide gate.
JG: Melbourne Cup winner back in 2009, he can win. Simple as that, he goes in my top 3 for sure. Corey Brown is obviously the best option for Shocking and I think he is a huge chance. All his form around Flemington is positive. Look Out!
2. Scenic Shot
AH: I know he’s been really disappointing, but I reckon he’s suited at weight for age back at Flemington. His last five runs at the track and distance have resulted in a win and an eighth in the Mackinnon Stakes, two placings in the Turnbull Stakes and a fifth in the Australian Cup. He’s getting on, but if he reaches his best form, you never know…
JG: Gee I loved this bloke but he has gone off the rails and I expect he will be retired in 24 hours time. He is one of my all time favourites and yeah IF he finds his best and IF this race was 18 or so months ago, he could be a huge chance but I cant see it happening. I hope your right Andy but I think tomorrow is a last hoorah for him.
3. Heart of Dreams
AH: You can support him if you want – I’m not touching him at 2000m, especially at Flemington. 2000m at Caulfield, perhaps – you see a lot of leaders get soft leads there. Don’t know if he’ll lead here, but if he contests the lead, I reckon he’ll be under pressure early. If he doesn’t, I reckon Ginga Dude will be able to hold him off over 2000m. I reckon he’s a lay.
JG: Hard bloke to really gauge. I wont avoid him so abruptly there Andy because he isn’t hopeless! Goes well at Flemington, was favourite for the race last year in a better field than this. Yes 2000m is a concern but I am not ruling him out by any means.
4. C’est La Guerre
AH: Needless to say, it depends on which C’est La Guerre turns up. If it’s the horse that won the Craven Plate in Sydney, then perhaps. But he’s been a shadow of his old form since. Lloyd Williams says his best hope in the race is Linton, so while he could do something, I’d prefer to steer clear.
JG: Cant win, he’s making up the numbers and I will be absolutely shocked to bits if he wins. Next!
5. Precedence
AH: Won on this day last year in quicker time than the Australian Cup. His best form has been at 2000m in my opinion, and I reckon you’ll see another bold showing again. He has the master on his side which always helps…what is it, 13 Australian Cups he’s already won? Wide gate doesn’t help but you can’t leave him out.
JG: Very handy galloper, meets a questionable Group 1 field, Bart, all these tick those necessary boxes that you need to be confident in big races. Will WFA suit him? Maybe, maybe not but once again this field has nothing on that of last years edition and I like him.
6. Ginga Dude
AH: I don’t mind the sole Kiwi in the field. Destroyed his rivals at Caulfield in the Coongy Handicap, then ran a very respectable third to So You Think in the Mackinnon. I don’t know if many horses in this field could get that close to So You Think over 2000m at Flemington. Good run in the St George considering he apparently was suffering travel sickness. He’s over that now and at the current odds of $21 with TAB Sportsbet, I reckon he’d be my top tip at odds.
JG: Good form on all track conditions. He’s good this bloke. However you pronounce his name he goes in for mine and will be very hard to beat. Barrier 1 suits him. He’s a very versatile galloper and will be able to go wherever he wants. I reckon he sits just off them and takes a run along the rails when the straighten.
7. Mourayan
AH: Alright run against Laristan last week. Still, he looks too one paced for mine. He’s the likely front runner according to Lloyd Williams. He does meet Laristan 6kg better, which definitely suits him. Nevertheless, not for me.
JG: Couldn’t have him. That Laristan race you mention wasn’t much chop and he will need everything to go right and then some to win here.
8. Alcopop
AH: Coming off a nice win at Kilmore. Big step up here, and I’m not sure Flemington is his track…I reckon he’s better suited at Caulfield or Moonee Valley. Wide gate does him no favours either. Probably happy to avoid. Maybe the place.
JG: Passing on him. Vivid Vixen and Its Prince who ran 2nd and 3rd in the Kilmore Cup would be big odds if they were in this. He would have to come along in leaps and bounds to threaten here. No thanks.
9. Moudre
AH: He’s always promised plenty, but I still reckon he’s under the odds. No doubting he likes Flemington, but I don’t think his odds reflect his true value. I’d much prefer to take the $6.50 about Precedence or even the $71 about Mr Charlie considering their head to head battles. Don’t know about you Galats, but I’m not taking $6 about him.
JG: Too short. He is getting a stigma about him which make the bookies quote him shorter than what he should be. No doubt he’s classy, loves Flemington, Craig Willaims is a star no doubt. But $6? C’mon!
10. Linton
AH: Lloyd Williams rates him his best chance. I personally think the striking grey has a very good chance here. His form stacks up around the best, he is racing like a 2000m Flemington horse…but vitally, he has the blinkers on. Hallelujah. To me, that says follow. It is his D-Day too, but I think we’ll actually see the best of him. Definite winning hope for mine Galats.
JG: He goes alright. Hasnt won at Flemington in 5 goes but has 3 placings there and Rodd is onboard. Well rated on good tracks. He can win. But I think there are a few just ahead of him.
11. Cedarberg
AH: Looked home in the Mornington Cup before he was caught on the line by Guyno, who’s in career best form in my opinion. He’s the fittest horse in the race, which I reckon will count come the final 200m tomorrow. Although it shows the depth of the field when I think the Mornington Cup winner is a chance, I think he could win at good odds.
JG: Probably outclassed a bit here which is really saying something. Would be better suited in an Adelaide Cup field where he would be a strong hope. I’m happy to leave him out.
12. Lord Pyrus
AH: Long term plans to get this horse here have worked…but I can’t see him winning. Looks totally outclassed.
JG: Good on them for getting the horse here. But cannot have him anywhere.
13. Mr Charlie
AH: Okay, so most would expect the same comment for Mr Charlie as I gave Lord Pyrus. Well, I’m sorry to disappoint you…I think he can be the boilover horse. Really. This is a weak Australian Cup, and he did well fresh. He has Peter Moody on his side. He likes Flemington. Definitely not suited at weight for age, but he can be the Roman Arch or the Dandy Andy of 2011. I’ll be on at 100-1 (currently with Centrebet). Okay…ridicule me now Galats.
JG: Now hang on there Ando. O Backed him first up last time. Beat Carbon Trader who, at best, was a Moonee Valley night horse but he ran some good races last year. He, like many got smashed in the Geelong Cup and his form is questionable but far be it for me to disrespect the great P G Moody.
14. Laristan
AH: I think he’s got under the guard of quite a few people. His win last week was good – and in quick time, too. For such a small field, that’s pretty incredible. Only issue is how unsuited he is at weight for age, but as David Hayes said this morning to Shane Anderson, it’s not as though there are many weight for age horses in the field. I think he’s a place chance at odds.
JG: Can I ridicule you now Andy? Good well you can bet with JG & Son Bookmaking if you like, name your own price for this bloke. He wont win.
15. Playing God
AH: Nice horse from Perth. As the only 3yo he adds a bit of intrigue – I’m convinced that the majority of this crop won’t measure up in open class, but he’s an exception. Lost his chance last week when he missed the start slightly. Will be better suited here, and is one of many hopes in an open Australian Cup.
JG: I like him, alot! Dont get me wrong I am the last person to complain about the outcome of last weeks Guineas but he was very unlucky. WFA suits him, yes he is yet to run the 2000m but I think the only reason he isnt shorter is because this race is an open age Group 1. I’ve got him on top.
SUMMARY:
AH: There’s no standout this year, and I think we can see an upset at odds. I’m going to go for Ginga Dude. That So You Think reference is good enough for here. For 2nd, in what will either make me look like a hero or an idiot, I’m going for Mr Charlie. Hearing Peter Moody this morning on radio only made me more confident. For third, I think Linton is a big chance. Only reason I don’t have him higher is that I’m unsure where he’ll get in the run. Add in Precedence for the first four. Others for multiples are Playing God, Laristan, Cedarberg and Scenic Shot. And I could even have missed the winner…incredibly open (and fairly weak) Australian Cup.
JG: Playing God goes on top for me. I had hoped after reviewing the Guineas that he’d come to the Aussie Cup and here he is. I’m on him. He will go very, very close. For second, Precedence. Good horse, Bart Cummings, Steven Arnold. Need I say more? For third I like Shocking ahead of Ginga Dude and Heart Of Dreams. Yes it is a very open race, but this isn’t a Group One that racing fans have come to expect.
Written by Andrew Hawkins & Joseph Galati
