A strong bunch of 3YO fillies will line up in the Group l Thousand Guineas (1600m) this Wednesday at Caulfield. The track rating is unknown given significant rain is forecast for the day, so how the track plays will be known as the meeting progresses.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Thousand Guineas.
2021 Thousand Guineas Speed Map
Queen Of Dubai will slide across and lead based on her Jim Moloney effort. Hinged pressed forward in a majority of her runs in Queensland so she can be positive, likewise Swift Witness and Achira. Barb Raider is coming back in trip but drawn well, I think she will land in a good spot, potentially box seat.
2021 Thousand Guineas Runner Preview
1. Swift Witness: She will put herself on speed and give her all. That was the case in the Flight Stakes when attempting to lead throughout and she ran her usual honest race when fourth to stablemate Never Been Kissed. 1600m is a query with her, but she’s in the right camp with the right racing pattern.
2. Hinged: Chris Waller trained former Queensland filly that has had two runs for the stable. Messy first run in the Dulcify before going to the Flight Stakes and you could make a case to say she should have won had she jumped cleanly, running a narrow second to Never Been Kissed, who ran so well on the weekend in the Spring Champion. That form reads well for this.
3. Elusive Express: To me, she looks a Wakeful/Oaks filly. Strong winner of the Edward Manifold and does have the 1600m lead in under the belt, which should hold her in good stead. Three wide cover, she’ll launch late. A win wouldn’t shock.
4. Bon’s A Pearla: Egg on the face but I think the Prelude form as a whole is rubbish. They walked out, they walked home, blanket finish…Elusive Express did come out and win but she looked in the Prelude like she wanted further. The others I don’t think are, including the winner, which was this girl.
5. Literary Magnate: Didn’t think she was too bad fresh in the Atlantic Jewel. Then went the Jim Moloney where she chased a strong speed and tried hard, but her run ended. Good platform for a mile. Just not sure she has the class.
6. Zouzarella: You’re in one of two camps. You think she will run a strong mile or she won’t. My personal opinion, I don’t think a strong mile is her go. But, if she is going to get it, it will be here because she draws to do no work, sit closer in the run compared to the Jim Moloney and be very dangerous. She’s the #2 seed of the Melbourne fillies.
7. Heresy: Comes through the Prelude and IMO was very weak late at 1400m, so 1600m has to be a query even allowing for the fact she has gate one and does no work. $10/thereabouts I feel is unders. I think she should be double that at least.
8. Queen Of Dubai: Surprised most with her Jim Moloney win, with sustained speed from the front coming to the fore at Sandown. You’re getting an okay price to find out if she can stretch her brilliance to the mile. I’m not sure she can given there will be more pressure in front with others wanting to be handy.
9: Yearning: Bred to eat up an Oaks trip. Fascinating to see what the tactics are. Do they ride positive like they did in the Edward Manifold, or drift back, find the line and tune up for the Wakeful/Oaks. She’s got the ability to run a cheeky race.
10: Barb Raider: This girl is starting to put together a strong record. Heading towards the Oaks and earned her ticket into that via the Oaks Trial win. Connections paid the late entry for this, she maps to get an A1 run in transit and a truly run mile will be no issue for her with the 1800m run under the belt.
11. Cuban Link: Not surprised there has been early specking for her at a big price. She was very strong in winning at Flemington last time albeit a blanket finish. Lacks a turn of foot but 1600m no issue IMO and this will be a truly run mile. I could easily have something small on her at big odds.
12. Achira: Lee Curtis produced magic with Lasqueti Spirit in Melbourne a few years ago. But on exposed form, I can’t see this girl troubling them.
13: Fortunate Kiss: Four career outings. Two times she has been ridden cold, she has been good, including in the Jim Moloney. She has a gate to get a good run off a solid speed and be strong late. Can I see her winning? I’m saying no.
2021 Thousand Guineas $100 Betting Strategy:
The map just looks super for Barb Raider. I think she will only run well from the gate and with the 1800m lead in, she will be strong at the end. $40 Win, $60 Place on her and you should be making a profit.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1580
Group l Strategy Return: $1102.5
