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Alegron should hold a forward spot from the inside gate

The three year olds will battle it out for the penultimate Group l of the Adelaide Carnival this Saturday at Morphettville, the South Australian Derby (2500m).

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 South Australian Derby.

Market 💰: View the Odds for the South Australian Derby

*Existing customers only. 2nd Racing bet. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.

2022 South Australian Derby Speed Map

Potentially good speed here. Son Of Emperor when stupid in front in the Chairman’s. King Of Pharoahs, first run for the new camp, can slide forward, as can the in form Claidheamh Mor. Alegron should hold a forward spot from the inside gate, as should Teewaters.

2022 South Australian Derby Runner Preview

1. Alegron: He is hard to beat with the class edge. Massive effort in defeat in the Australian Derby before going to the St Leger. I’m not going to dutch rudder over the ride like others have been. IMO it was lucky that he was up against camels that the gaps came and the class came to the fore. Dominant win, but it was 90% the horse and 10% the ride. Hard to beat all the same here, especially from the gate at set weights.

2. Teewaters: After his first up run, I was ready to declare him a Derby horse. But his two runs since have been quite plain and even with a soft gate, I’m happy to look elsewhere.

3. Jungle Magnate: Won the Chairman’s and was strong, helped by some Ollie magic. The run prior at Caulfield was a touch on the plain side but the last start win was a tick for this. Definite winning chance. Just not sure where he gets to from the gate.

4. Commander Harry: Stable won the Oaks and here they are trying to win the Derby. His last start behind Detonator Jack had merit. I just don’t think he’s good enough to turn the tables.

5. Harleymoven: Harleymoven is a three year old I have plenty of time for and IMO is clear #1 seed for the locals. He was set a task from the wide gate in the Chairmans two weeks ago here but loved the way he kept finding the line in defeat when second to Jungle Magnate, who had the more economical run in transit and finished best. If he can get a cold sit, and settle closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.

6. Detonator Jack: Detonator Jack will do me here. He looks to have all the upside in the world for the Maher/Eustace camp, who love to target a Derby. Lot of arrogance about the way he has been winning, winning with seemingly plenty of scope/improvement to come and he’ll eat up 2500m. It’s going to take something very good to knock him off.

7. The Nephew: The Nephew is in with a shout. He was set a task last start at Sandown and it wasn’t helped by getting held up on the turn, stopping all momentum. Run prior behind Detonator Jack was very good and if he can repeat that here, he is certainly in the mix as a key threat.

8. Son Of Emperor: Went way too hard in front in the Chairman’s and was a beaten horse before the turn. Interesting that connections paid up to run him, so he must have pressed the stable since. But I can’t see him bouncing back as a threat.

9. Saint Tropez: Given a 12/10 in the Chairman’s and that was the main reason why he ran third. Much more tricky map for him here, the depth is stronger…I think he will struggle.

10. Water Into Wine: Lovely ride from J Allen saw him win against the older horses at Geelong last start. Just question what he beat that day and his efforts prior. Didn’t scream out of being a Derby horse.

11. Yaphet: Good late last Saturday at Caulfield over 2000m, producing some of the better late splits of the race and meeting. I don’t think he’s good enough to win, but I could see him finishing top four.

12. King Of Pharoahs: Fascinating he now joins Roslyn Day from Lindsey Smith after a horrible run during the Warrnambool Carnival. In saying that, I do think he is a stupid price due to the trainer change. $71 is too big. That said, I can’t see him threatening.

13. Claidheamh Mor: Good test for him against some big boys. But, he will jump on the bunny and give himself every chance. That’s what he did when winning at Mornington last time. He’ll give backers a sight…last bit may test.

14. Sebastian The Fox: Held by Water Into Wine at Geelong. Can’t see him threatening these. Would need to improve many, many lengths.

15. Phere The Ex: He seems really one paced so 2500m will be no issue. But those near the top of betting have change up speed, and I think that will ensure this guy will struggle.

16. Lady Chant: WA Oaks winner who was never a factor in the SA Oaks. I do think the rise in trip suits but she’s not good enough to beat this lot.

17. Texas Tea (First Emergency): This is the one at stupid odds I could speck if he gets a run. He should have gone close to winning Claidheamh Mor at Mornington but had no luck at a vital stage. Maher/Eustace polish, good upside to come, trip no issue…$41+ is crazy. If he gets a run, he’s a genuine $15 chance IMO.

18. Turfie (Second Emergency): Good sustained run from off the speed to win the maiden the last time. I think he has talent but not enough to threaten here.

19. Bring The Stars (Third Emergency): Good effort last start over 1750m but straight to 2500m is a far from ideal set up. Can’t entertain.

20. Six Foot Song (Fourth Emergency): Strong last start maiden winner at Murray Bridge, but this is a bridge too far for him.

2022 South Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:

I’m having Win bets here on a few runners. $40 Alegron and Detonator Jack, and two $10 Harleymoven and The Nephew.

Group l Strategy Outlay: $6370
Group l Strategy Return: $10216.6

*Existing customers only. 2nd Racing bet. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.

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