This morning, as people flicked on their computers, phones etc, the market for race 2 at Newcastle went up.
Her name is DREAMING OF GOLD (Magic Albert-Johanski).
But the question must be asked: even though she looks a shoe-in for today, can you really dive into a $1.30 price for a horse who is known, 100% of the time in 6 starts to date, that she doesn’t finish her races off?
Now don’t get me wrong. I think she wins at Newcastle today, but many, many people have felt thought before.
And she hasn’t. Instead she has 6 starts for 6 x 2nd placings. And on nearly all of them, she loomed to win.
Is she a herd horse? A card-carrying example of what the animal called equid does? That is to run with the pack, not ahead of it.
Horses like WINX are the black sheep of the equine world. They want to be first.
But most of them don’t. Dreaming Of Gold should be renamed Dreaming Of Silver.
Last start at Muswellbrook, over 1280m, she stormed to the lead with 200m to go only to be run down by Brother Bassy. She was beaten half a length and was a $1.55 chance.
Start prior, she was beaten a short half head, start before that, a nostril, before that a short half head.
Biggest loss, was at Newcastle, when beaten a length by Ice Bath, who was stakes placed last week.
On every occasion, Dreaming Of Gold has either hit the front or looked like winning at the 200m mark. She clearly has talent. She can run….she just doesn’t like to be in front.
So, given that taking $1.30 about say Nature Strip beating this mare represents a poor bet in this uncertain day and age, will you be taking that price about a known non-winner?
Hmm, perhaps the quinella with NATANYA (Pierro-Shania Dane) who is 3rd up in this, is the best play.
That at least should pay around $3.40.