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Image: Steve Hart
Montefilia is one of the leading contenders in the Metropolitan Handicap

The Metropolitan (2400m) is a time honoured race of the Sydney Spring and the 2021 edition rolls around this Saturday at Randwick. The rail is true, but the track pattern will depend on what the weather does and how much rain hits the track.

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 The Metropolitan.

2021 The Metropolitan Speed Map

The WaterBott pair of Entente and Hush Writer, normally go forward horses, were ridden with cover last start, so will be interesting to see what they do from soft draws. Spirit Ridge will be on speed. Quick Thinker can slide across with Angel Of Truth, while Le Don De Vie will likely push on from the wide gate.

2021 The Metropolitan Runner Preview

1. Spirit Ridge: He’s so poorly weighted against some of these. Relative to the others, he hasn’t done much and was plain in the Kingston Town, albeit was slow to recover post race, so he had excuses, but does need to improve. Can’t have him.

2. Shared Ambition: SCRATCHED

3. Quick Thinker: Too bad to be true in the Rowley Mile fresh. Two runs since, including a last start second in the Newcastle Cup, have been encouraging. I’m just not sure that is the right form for this, so happy to look elsewhere.

4. Dashing Willoughby: Blinkers first time is his saving grace because really, he has rank in two runs this prep. Admittedly they have come over shorter trips, but still, he has failed badly. He has the Waller polish…it would be a remarkable training effort if he was to get this horse to win.

5. Angel Of Truth: Hasn’t really done much since his Derby win a few years ago and he was ordinary in the Naturalism at Caulfield. I have a few others well and truly ahead of him here as a threat.

6. Mirage Dancer: Won this race last year. This will be his swan song before he heads to finish his career in Ireland. He wasn’t too bad in the Naturalism, but needs a bone dry deck and he won’t be getting that there.

7. Warning: To my eye, it’s a race in two. If there is a sleeper, he is one of two I think fit that criteria. I thought he warmed to the task with real purpose late at Flemington last time behind Floating Artist, who won last Saturday and a horse who is going to win good races. Gets to a suitable trip, give in the ground…I think $31+ for him is silly.

8. Montefilia: Flying this girl. Two runs back from a break have been excellent, the latest in the Kingston Town behind She’s Ideel. She is still yet to tick the 2400m box, so that’s the query here. Is she looking for it? Or is she just a 2000m horse? We will find out one way or another. I’m leaning towards the former.

9: Attorney: He’s come back in really good order. One of the better runs of the beaten brigade in the Kingston Town and should eat up the 2400m. He gets J Mac steering…just where does he get to in the run from the draw.

10: Le Don De Vie: Team Freedman import that wasn’t too bad fresh at the Valley behind Degraves but I feel he is better on top of the ground, plus will have to work hard to find the front, so I’m looking elsewhere.

11. Kukeracha: SCRATCHED

12. She’s Ideel: One to beat IMO. Landed in the A1 spot in the Kingston Town but still had to take advantage of it and that she did, drawing clear late for a dominant win. Better suited at 2400m, loves give in the track, got improvement to come. She’s the one I like.

13: Harpo Marx: Race wasn’t run to suit in the Newcastle Cup in what was more or less a 600m dash. He has been up a long time this prep and you just wonder what upside is left. Not well in at the weights either.

14. Entente: To my eye, he is really short in betting at around $7. They rode him with dived last Saturday in the Colin Stephen and the end result was a dominant win in a brutally run race. That will toughen him right up for this and is in the right camp. Just not sure how strong that form is.

15. Great House: Bless him for getting the job done in the Newcastle Cup. To be fair, it was a relatively weak edition of the race, but he had to make a sustained run from off the speed and had to produce fast late splits. He’s down in the weights, has found winning form, runs well…not sure he wins.

16. Hush Writer: Had a good run in transit first up in the Newcastle Cup but failed to finish it off and this is only harder so I’d be stunned if he was around the mark.

17 No Compromise: He’s the other sleeper. Can make a case to say he wins the Newcastle Cup with clear air. Just badly held up at a vital stage before eventually getting clear and attacking the line for third. Right down in the weights, 2400m is ideal, wet ground no issue…he’s a key threat at odds.

18. Charms Star: Jumping to the mile from 2400m is a big ask and comes through benchmark company. Nice mare, but she wants something easier than this.

19. Luncies: Gains a start after a scratching. His Newcastle Cup run was solid from off the speed and I do think a truly run 2400m will suit. Just not sure he has the class to be beating these.

20. Zeyrek: I’m really surprised he is as short as he is. Visually, good run in the Kingston Town, but he did no work from gate one and was fence in run, which was the spot to be. $13 is silly short. He should be double that IMO.

21. Long Arm: SCRATCHED

2021 The Metropolitan $100 Betting Strategy:

Main bet is $50 on She’s Ideel. She brings the best form and should be a clear favourite. $30 on Montefilia because she’s flying and I thunk is wanting 2400m. The two at odds I’ll have $10 on are Warning and No Compromise.

Group l Strategy Outlay: $800
Group l Strategy Return: $640

 
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