Resident tipster Adam gives his Lays for Saturday (25/7/2020) racing. Note that prices quoted, thanks to Sportsbet.com.au, were available at the time of writing, which was 10am Friday.
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Rosehill Race One Number 7 Hot ‘N’ Hazy ($3.20): He can clearly win the race, but he is priced on hype, the trial win on Monday and the comments of trainer Danny Williams. The debut win at Wagga was won in solid time, form has been okay without being great and is 1200m first up in town after trialling a few days prior, so there are a number of question marks with him going into Saturday and he’s just way too short at $3.20. Should be double that price, but realistically, I think he’ll start around the $4-$4.50 mark. Can win, but not a betting proposition at the current price.
Caulfield Race Eight Number 1 Double You Tee ($3.20): Granted this race has a long tail to it and he’s one of four/five genuine winning chances given the class factor and weights scale, but he’s just too short for a horse that I feel has been quite poor at his past couple. Yes, tempo was against last Saturday at Flemington behind Creedence, but still thought he was entitled to finish the race off better. A query at the trip, a query on how well he’s going…$3.20 seems rock bottom.
Doomben Race Six Number 9 Howwonderfullifeis ($3.90): I think she’s a clear risk at the price. She has won twice on heavy ground, but one of which was in a weak 3YO race and the other, she scraped in to win a moderate Class Three. I think she isn’t effective on wet ground at this sort of level and she’s had a pretty decent prep time wise, so not sure what upside she’s got left. I’m on Defence Missile, could save on Tullio, so happy to take on this filly.
Morphettville Race Two Number 1 Manzala ($3.70): Ashton Downing has him racing well, but I think he’s a good risk on Saturday. Looked to get every chance last Saturday when third to Exalted Ruth and I think that form is a tad suspect, plus now he has to step up to 2500m, a trip he failed at four back in a weak race won by Swankytoff. Started $5 last Saturday, but tomorrow, can see him starting $6+.
Belmont Race Three Number 5 Indian Pacific ($1.45): He’s got the A1 form yes, and overall, the depth here isn’t strong, but $1.45 seems way too short. He’s three weeks between runs and comes back to 1200m from 1000m. He’s a go forward type and I can see plenty of speed inside him, namely Tranquilla Sunrise along with Fire And Rain, both of which ran near the speed in the Beaufine last Saturday, so he’ll have to do work to cross, and at $1.45, he has to be a risk.