Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (17/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Tuesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $49115
Betting Strategy Return: $51902
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
$50 Early Quaddie = 31.25% (1-3/2-3-4-9-10/2-6-7-9/1-4-6-8)
Warwick Farm Overview:
Potentially tricky Early Quaddie but I think there is value in a couple of legs. First leg looks a race in two between Splendid Surprise and Rotator. Second leg I’ve gone with five runners, with the Snowden fillies the pair to beat for me, with respect to Academy, on debut for Mark Newnham. Leaving out Royal Marine. Thought she was just fair on debut. I like Weekend Affair in the third. Safe inclusion is Watchdog, with the value runners being Nacho Libre, a mile specialist, and Kelvinside, who will lap up the drying track. He’s A Given did nice things for us last Wednesday, but a drying track hurts his chances big time. Last leg, could have gone one out with Front Sight, but including a couple of in form gallopers for insurance in case he’s off his game.
I think Summerfest is worth a throw at the stumps fresh for Brent Stanley. Her recent form from last prep says no, but really liked what I saw from her in a recent Bendigo jumpout and with Linda Meech steering, who is riding in super form at the moment, this mare is worth something on, and she’ll likely get to $20+. I think the bet is clearly Oscar’s My Mate Pa in the sixth, an on pace veteran who eats mud for breakfast and he’ll get conditions to suit. Generally when the Cranbourne track is rain affected, on pace is certainly a good spot to be and that’s where he’ll be, and he comes here with some positive form next to his name. $8 is more than acceptable.
$50 Win Multi @ $5.28 (TAB)
Heritage Sash R1 ($2.2)
Guard Of Honour R2 ($2.4)
Sunshine Coast Overview:
Wet tracks have stopped Heritage Sash from resuming but he finally kicks off here and he finds a really winnable maiden. I think he’s got the raced brigade covered. Just depends what the first starters dish but convinced he’s the best horse in the race. Been gelded, trialled up well, he’ll do me. Normal luck and Guard Of Honour is too good isn’t he? He will love the drop in depth from his past two. Two back at Scone placed in the Ortensia behind Viridine and Victorem before going to Randwick where he worked in the run and faded late behind Deprive. That form reads much better than most engaged here, and with a stack of speed engaged, can see him sitting off it and launching late.
$100 Win Amerissa R7 (Tote)
$2.70 at the time of writing seems short enough so take the tote and should get better because I reckon there’ll be support for the two down the bottom with the lightweights. This mare resumed on the Parks track on a bog off the back of an impressive trial and she looked to travel into the race nicely but the wheels were spinning when let down, finishing fifth to King Kabuto. Three winners have come from that race, so that’s the A1 form reference for this and should take really good improvement from the resumption. Think she wins, but suspect you’ll get $3+ at some stage.