Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (10/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Tuesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $47325
Betting Strategy Return: $49344
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
Grafton
$40 Win Onemore Sapphire R4 (Tote)
$10 Win/$20 Place Blue Comet R6 (Tote)
$10 Win/$20 Place After All That R7 (Tote)
Grafton Overview:
It’s Highway form with Onemore Sapphire, but I reckon Terry Evans has this three year old absolutely flying. He was good without luck two back over 1500m at Rosehill before stepping back to 1400m where he got well back and charged home late to just miss out on picking up Dulette. Now back up to the mile, he looks a really good bet against this lot. Think there is a really good roughie in the Guineas in the shape of the Noel Doyle trained Blue Comet. Won three of his nine career outings, the latest coming two back in impressive fashion at the Gold Coast. Went to the Sunny Coast Guineas last time and just pen that run. The track was a bog, he was hooked back to near last from the wide gate..forget he went around. Can sit much closer in the run from the draw, depth nowhere near as strong and hopefully firmer footing. I’m hoping the track firms up for After All That because I think he’s a great gamble each way at decent odds for Rod Northam. Had two runs in the latter part of the Autumn, resuming with an eye catching seventh behind Viridine in the Ortensia at Scone before racing over 1400m at Randwick and I just think these days, beyond 1200m sees him out. Like him fresh, off a fast run 1200m on hopefully dry-ish ground, and the tick over trial at Muswellbrook was good.
Warwick Farm
$10 Win Parlay 2,3 = $40 Cost
Judicator R1
Lashes R3
Pelethronius R5
$10 Win Waruna R6 @ $8.5 (BeyEasy)
$10 Win/$40 Place He’s A Given R7 @ $10/$3.3 (Sportsbet)
Warwick Farm Overview:
Judicator looks very raw and new to the caper but looks talented and loved the way he put them away at Hawkesbury last week. Suspect there will be a push for War Baron so he’ll likely start closer to $3. Lashes looks hard to beat in the third. Sat on speed first up at Wyong and tried hard but bumped into a future Stakes class animal in Sir Elton. Back home, wet ground, she’s the one. Pelethronius is a bludger but gee he finds a winnable race in the fifth and he gets the perfect set up of home track, 1600m, bog track and a strong rider steering. Waruna has cost me a fair bit this time in, but why is she $8.50? This race looks very thin on paper, she gets Bowman on and looked to go about her business very nicely in a recent trial. Hoping the mare jumps well, goes forward and gets the suck run behind Sweet Ava/Vinnie Power. The best at odds on the program is clearly He’s A Given. Talk about a perfect set up for a horse and he has found it. Home track, wet ground, light weight and is in form. Thought he was really poorly ridden last time by Jason Collett, taking far too long to make his move. Gee he looks a good bet each way.
Sandown
$10 Win/$40 Place Ekraar’s Princess R2 (Tote)
$10 Win/$40 Place Habesha R3 @ $10/$3.3 (Sportsbet)
Sandown Overview:
The 1400m 2YO race looks a very even contest with no real standouts and I think a speck each way could be for this Richard Laming first starter. She’s had a couple of jumpouts in readiness for her debut, both at Cranbourne. Latest came a couple of weeks ago when behind the speed in a pocket but under a really good hold and looked to have plenty to offer. She’s worth a throw at the stumps. I’m keen to see how Habesha goes second up for Pat Carey. This mare brought from WA some good form when making her Victorian debut at Flemington where she looked in need of the run behind Pop Girl. Like her up to the mile and she finds a winnable race.
Morphettville Parks
$25 Win Parlay 2,3 = $100 Cost
Blow Torch R2
Disco Rebel R3
Mannix R5
Morphettville Parks Overview:
I think only bad luck will beat Blow Torch in the second. He’s been really good this time in for the McEvoy and finds a really winnable race, especially from gate one. Should win. Disco Rebel has found some positive form for Sue Jaensch and looks the winner of the third off the back of a pretty dominant win at Casterton last time. Just needs luck from the sticky draw. Mannix is at $5 at the time of writing and that’s the sort of price where he could drift to $6-$7 or firm right up to $3. Market will be the guide. Now with Will Clarken after a poor debut in Victoria, but gee he looked sharp in a jumpout on the track last Tuesday. Clarken is the best in the business at improving a tried horse. Hopefully the magic wand he’s got works with this colt.
