Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (20/6/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Wednesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $42110
Betting Strategy Return: $44033
Futures Outlay: $2565
Futures Return: $2391
Bit surprised there is such a price gap between Discombe and Grand Eagle in the first. The latter is fav and has placed in both runs since coming from Australia, but there is a query on the strength of the form. Discombe ran at Canterbury last time when on speed and fighting hard when second to Milunka, who ran well without much luck earlier today. $3.6 looks more than acceptable. Made Lashes the best of the day off the back of such an impressive trial win at Randwick when running fast time in winning her trial and did it under a nice hold. Sir Elton and her look to control the race from the front and hoping the class of Lashes kicks in late. The one at stupid odds is Sculptures. Have Doctor Zous on top, but in terms of a bet, $23 for this bloke is the overs. Resumed over 1100m at Gosford and closed off hard from off the pace behind Celer. May need one more run, but at the odds, happy to have something on, especially with the claim for Cejay Graham.
$5 Win/$20 Place Fuentess R6 (Tote)
$5 Win/$20 Place Stable Me R9 @ $34/$9 (Sportsbet)
There are a couple of runners at odds I think are worth each way specks. Fuentess debuts for Symon Wilde and I don’t think this is the strongest two year old race going around. Had a jumpout on the track here a couple of weeks ago and looked to move when asked for an effort. Just think he’s worth a throw at the stumps, likewise Stable Me. She had trialled up really well prior to resuming at Hamilton where she was nearer the inside, which was the quicksand, and she couldn’t really pick her feet up. Blinkers go on to sharpen up and I think $34 is overs for sure.
$20 Win/$30 Place Rothford R6 @ $11/$3 (TAB)
Gatton Overview: Not the greatest of winning strike rates, but I reckon Kevin Hickmott has this bloke flying. Thought he was an eye catcher first up at the Sunny Coast before going to Beaudesert when again back in the run but again made up good ground in defeat. Hopefully can take advantage of the inside gate and if so, he will take some beating for sure and the $11 will look very good.
$10 Win Ventura Rebel R1 (Tote)
$40 Win Fleeting R3 @ $2.9 (BetEasy)
$30 Win Cross Counter R4 @ $5.5 (BetEasy)
$5 E/W Tulfarris R5 @ $34 Win (Crownbet), $8 Place (TAB)
$5 E/W Majestic Dawn R6 (Tote)
Royal Ascot Overview:
Ventura Rebel for me in the opener. He won the 2YO Prelude at this track and it was outstanding the way he won, outpaced early before picking up late and charged to the line to beat a well touted Wesley Ward runner Lady Pauline. Will likely be run off his legs again and there is more depth to the field but have to be impressed by what he produced last time. I think the best version of Fleeting would see her too good for this field. She was awful first up in the 1000 Guineas but made amends for that with a closing third in the Oaks at Epsom. 2400m should be perfect for her and that placing is clearly better than any form line going around here. If she repeats that effort, she wins. Just getting a tad short in betting now. Thought the price gap between Cross Counter and Stradivarius was too great so have to go with the Melbourne Cup winner. He was outstanding in winning on the first Tuesday in November before going to the Dubai Gold Cup where he wasn’t afforded the smoothest and most economical run, but class came to the fore and he drew clear. Seems to be getting better and better and I have no issue with him at the trip. I’ll go the way of Tulfarris for Charlie Fellowes in the penultimate. He has placed in both runs for the new stable, the latest coming over the mile at Doncaster when off the speed and chasing hard when second. These kind of races are always tough to sort out, but for the sake of a tip, he is one of a stack of ways you could go. Throw at the stumps in the get out via Majestic Dawn. The London Gold Cup is a form reference here and I thought he was very good in defeat after being tardy away, which pretty much sealed his fate. His win prior to that at Newbury was dominant and with a clean get away, he will run a much improved race and will likely start $40+. I think he’s worth an each way speck.