Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (5/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Thursday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $46135
Betting Strategy Return: $48430
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
The last 10-15 minutes of betting in race two will be the guide as to who wins the event because it does look a race in two between Derby Star and Sweet Love. Sweet Love does come through a strong maiden at Tamworth back in September last year when running third, the race producing six winners. Has had two trials in readiness for her return, but the market will be the key because Cody Morgan has Derby Star, a former Kris Lees runner, first up off a couple of trials and stable can get them ready for a first up win. Looks to be good speed in the fifth and hoping that Stacey Metcalfe can take a sit with General Soho. Was five wide on speed over 900m at Scone last time yet was strongest late and was an impressive winner. Gets the suck run from the draw. I thought Roy’s Command would be a decent gamble at good odds, but $8 at the time of writing seems rather skinny, so take the tote and he should get to $10+. Admittedly the two runs back have been below par, but first up was a strong Randwick Highway and last start at Taree was wide no cover. Firm track, good gate and down in depth, he can bounce back for sure.
$100 Win Vallauris R4 @ $5.5 (Sportsbet)
Surely Oneira and Vallauris tighten closer in the market come jump time. Both resumed at Cranbourne over 1200m where Oneira ran second while a half length away was Vallauris, who was on debut and very green and IMO the better run. He since went to Echuca over 1400m when wide no cover and fighting on strongly to run third. Draws much better and big tick is he gets Williams back aboard. Oneira is going well, but $2.50 seems very short for a filly that has had a few chances to break the maiden tag. Much rather be with the Godolphin youngster.
Daunting Queen has been a real model of consistency this time in and looks one of the better bets on the card at Rocky. Ran over 1400m at the track last time and she had no chance of winning given they walked in front and she was out the back. She would have had to run sub 33 to win and she’s a handy mare, but not that good. Up to 1500m I like and Elyce Smith rides the track very well. If there’s any upside with Durif from the resumption, he wins. Resumed over 1100m at the track and gave them an absolute spanking under a very confident steer from Ryan Wiggins, who needed to see a chiropractor post race his neck was that out of whack. Like him alot. It looks a solid Newmarket but I think the bet at odds is Barachiel, who is flying for Jim O’Shea. He won his first two races in impressive fashion, then was solid at Mackay before coming back here when working to the line strongly after being held up, running a close up fourth. Niccanova picks himself on class, but even money is rock bottom for a horse yet to win in four runs this prep and Barachiel is worth a throw at the stumps at hopefully $20+.