Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (19/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Thursday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $49515
Betting Strategy Return: $51902
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
$100 Win Bellszov Bourke R1 @ $2.6 (Sportsbet)
Really ordinary day of racing on Friday, so just the couple of bets, the first of which comes at the start of the day in the first at Dubbo with a first starter, Bellszov Bourke. Well done if you got the $3.80 on Wednesday. I just think sustained speed will see her win the race. Daughter of Zoffany for Kody Nestor who trialled at Narromine on March 28 where she was a bit tardy away but showed dazzling speed to lead and from there just raced away, but she did get the wobbles on the turn and wanted to do a bit wrong, but clearly there is ability and early market support says she’s ready go despite that trial being just under four months ago. Last 10-15 minutes of betting will tell you if she’s ready. If she remains solid around her current quote, that’s the sign she’s good to go and based on what I’ve seen of the others, she looks the standout.
$10 Win Parlay 2,3 = $40
$10 Early Quaddie = 31.25% (7-10-11-12/2-12/2-12/2-8)
Pakenham Synthetic Overview:
Looks to be a bit of pressure in the sixth race and with that in mind, I think Annunciate can close off from off the pace and go close. His run here two back was quite good before going to Cranbourne where he got back and battled away okay. His go in life is on the Synthetic tracks and at close to double figures, I think he’s overs. I think back to the Synthetic track, Tourniquet will be hard to beat in the seventh and the double figures looks silly. Just found them a tad sharp here two back before going to Bendigo where he got back in the run and thought he closed off well late. Racing as if 1400m will suit and senior jock takes over from a good gate back on his preferred surface. Looks a good race for the Team Corstens trained Thunderdome, who comes here a few weeks between runs having last raced over the mile at Flemington where he was near the speed throughout and couldn’t quite finish it off behind Heavenly Emperor. Has only won the one race but for the most part has contested races far stronger than what he faces here, so he gets a great chance to register win number two and recent Flemington jumpout was quite good.
$5 Win/$45 Place Gone West R5 @ $16/$4.8 (Sportsbet)
I reckon this son of Sidereus is worth a throw at the stumps. Clearly best late splits over 1400m here three back when too far back in the run. Then raced at Wyong when wide no cover for the trip in a total forgive. Then went to the mile at Tamworth where his late splits were good in an on pace dominated race. Back to 1300m tells me this is likely a hitout before stepping back up in trip, but the fav is second up off a let up and a query at 1400m and the Kim Waugh starter, though trialled well, has drawn wide and may have to do work. If the pace is on, I think Gone West can run a really good race at decent odds.