Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (3/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Tuesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $45710
Betting Strategy Return: $47535
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
Belmont Overview: Tricky meeting at Belmont but this pair look the standouts in the 2YO maiden. Both of them trialled at Lark Hill last Monday and was very impressed by them both. Cryptic Wonder won his trial in relatively slow time but loved the way he changed gears when asked by Pike, who isn’t riding due to a Peters horse in the race. He did a bit wrong, but the big key for him is gate one, and hopefully that will straighten him out and keep him focused. Time To Sizzle led all the way in her trial and the time was just under 10 lengths quicker than the time Cryptic Wonder produced. She looked very sharp and was another that responded beautifully when asked. Back the two and you should make a profit.
$10 Parlay 3,4 = $50 Cost
Mandela R2 Win
Zouriana R3 Place
Haut Brion Her R4 Win
Weekend Affair R7 Place
$10 Win/$40 Place Matowi R6 (Tote)
Canterbury Overview: He’s not the finished product is Mandela but he looks a really decent animal for the Snowden camp based on the trials and despite being green, he looks above average. Gate one is a massive tick to hopefully guide him. I think with time, he’ll clearly be the best horse to come from this race. Hoping he’s just better than them now. Zouriana looks the value in the third. She was good first up over 1100m here behind Blazing Miss before racing at the same track/distance a couple of weeks ago and for mine, she just wanted further, attacking the line with real purpose late when clear. Like her stepping up to 1200m and there looks to be good speed engaged so she’ll get her chance. If Haut Brion Her is indeed going to be a filly that will be contesting Stakes races, she has to be putting this field away. Chris Waller trains her, and she’s resuming after a two run prep in the early part of the Summer, debuting with a second to Zalatte in what has been a red hot form race, before going to Warwick Farm and winning, then was tipped out. Trials leading in have been great and looks to get on speed and get run of the race stuff. Short enough but should be winning. Weekend Affair is flying for Jason Coyle. Very good resumption over 1250m here behind Rafha’s Choice before stepping up to the 1550m where he ran a close up fourth but could easily make a case he should have won. Just no luck in the straight when full of running. Gate one, gets the run of the race. Have to back Matowi each way, especially given he’s going to get to really good odds. Had no luck in his first three runs this prep before racing at this track/distance last time where he was three wide near last and just did too much work. Hoping Tommy can drag him back to near last, get to the rail and ride for luck because that seems to be the best way to ride him.
$10 Win Parlay 2,3 = $40 Cost
Smokin’ Pierro R3
Pierro Belle R7
$10 Win Casadiva R4 @ $9 (TAB)
Sandown Overview: The raced brigade outside the fav in the first looks a bit on the skinny side so I like Indiscretion off a really good debut behind an above average animal in Excused. Natural improvement, hard to beat. Smokin’ Pierro is a bit hit and miss but finds a lovely race to find winning form. The Hawkes stable is having a good run in Victoria at the moment and this bloke comes back to Melbourne after what I thought was an excellent run against the tempo/bias behind Devil’s Romance. Does no work from gate one and fourth up, he should be ready. Pierro Belle is a Smiley Chan trained filly who ran at Sandown last time out when well back off the speed and tried hard but was no match for the dominance of Tides. That form reads well for this and hopefully can sit a tad closer in the run from the draw. The speck at odds is Casadiva in the fourth, resuming for Brent Stanley. This filly can be hit and miss, but she has contested some good races throughout her career and her recent Bendigo jumpout was very good. Happy to be on at the $9 to see if she’s truly come back well. If so, she can win.
Ipswich Overview: Similar to Belmont, keen to bet on the one race in what looks a race in two. Been a big fan of Express Fantasy and the way he has trialled and he’s my on top tip, especially at the odds. He’s still a bit raw and new to the caper but does look talented. No surprise that Ingear has been slapped in betting. Tony Gollan trains this first starter, who trialled a couple of weeks back at Doomben and absolutely bolted in, smashing the clock relative to the morning. I think she’s got more brilliance than Express Fantasy and could well be too speedy for him, but back them both and should make a profit.