Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (22/5/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 3pm Tuesday.
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Betting Strategy Outlay: $34515
Betting Strategy Return: $37969
Futures Outlay: $2195
Futures Return: $1871
Tricky midweek program at Canterbury. Can easily make a case at long odds for the Chris Waller trained Rockarosa, on debut. She has a bit of pedigree being by Pierro out multiple Group l winner Gallica. Was pushed out to win her trial at Warwick Farm but she did respond well under pressure to win the trial and the time was pretty good relative to the morning, with the Group l performed Baller the only horse to go quicker over 799m. Soft gate, claim for Weatherley, she’s near $30. Can’t work that out. And I dare say she’ll start longer. Last chance for Waruna in the fourth. Was really keen on her last start but after half missing the kick, that sealed her fate in a race where those behind had no hope. Senior jock on now, if she jumps clean, she just about wins. I’m hoping Van Overmeire will push the button on Rafha’s Choice to get across because if he can get over, he’s the one to beat. Excellent resumption at Kembla before lumping 63.5kg at Wagga and winning impressively. Gets really good weight relief now. Just hope he gets over without spending too many petrol tickets. The horse that I think is well and truly overs is Lady Evelyn in the last. Three runs back from a spell have been good, though put a line through last start behind Zoffany’s Lad. Just the wrong set up for her, they went very quick and she didn’t have much left after pulling a fraction in the run. Fourth up at 1900m with Robbie Dolan on top of the ground, I think she’ll only run well in a race full of bludgers.
$50 E/W Credible Witness (Tote)
Ballarat Overview: Credible Witness is a son of Star Witness resuming for the Cameron stable. This bloke can be a real tease at times but when he is on, he’s a city class horse for sure and can clearly win this. Hasn’t raced since November 14 at Bendigo when a close up fourth to Got The Moves after attempting to lead all the way, not his go at all. He’s better when ridden off the speed and chasing. Hopefully that eventuates here because his recent trials have been really sharp.
Gold Coast Overview:
Note that 365 were the only bookie with odds up at the time of writing. Michael Costa could well have a decent day on his home track at the Gold Coast, starting with Missionary Bay in the first, who was really good on debut at Muswellbrook, getting well off the pace but made up good ground and produced good late splits to run third. In a somewhat weak maiden, can’t work out why he’s that price. Phobetor looks a horse of some promise. Not sure he beat much on debut at the Gold Coast, but it was the manner in which he put them away and the ease of it under little riding, like a barrier trial. Harder here clearly, but I think he can make it 2/2.