Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Tuesday’s (7/5/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Monday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $31015
Betting Strategy Return: $32471
Futures Outlay: $1945
Futures Return: $1871
Newcastle
$65 Win Prince Fawaz R6 @ $2.15 (TAB)
$10 Win/$25 Place Kulnura R8 @ $18/$5 (TAB)
Newcastle Overview:
Just the two for me at Newcastle. Prince Fawaz is high up in markets for the JJ Atkins so I reckon if you like him here, which I do, then have something small on him in the JJ Atkins because if he wins here, and impressively, his price will tighten in. He was only having his second career start in the Champagne but I thought his run was full of merit behind Castelvecchio, and that’s been the best 2YO race this season. Back in trip a little niggle, but has the form on the board based on last start and should be winning. I think the horse at silly odds on the program is Kulnura. David Atkins trains this bloke, who tends to save his best for early on in the prep. Resumed over 1400m here and it was pretty much a barrier trial for him. Just had no luck in the straight and not saying he would have won, but clearly should have finished closer. Been a quirky animal, but the trials and first up run suggests he’s matured somewhat and $18 each way does look a silly price.
Mornington
$100 Win Strategic Rebel R5 @ $5 (Sportsbet)
Mornington Overview: I think the market is a bit wrong here. Des Moines was wide no cover first up in defeat at Pakenham, but they didn’t go hard in that race, so you can say she had her chance, considering her strong 2YO form. The trials of Pinyin says no. I think the $5 about Strategic Rebel is more than acceptable. This girl debuted over 1000m here where she was very good in defeat. Her late splits were very good despite being asked to go for home around 500m out, forced five/six wide on the turn and was still makinng ground on the line. I think that form reads well, she can sit much closer in the run from the draw, 1200m ideal…just think the price gap is too big.
