Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Tuesday’s (5/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Monday.
Outlay: $8000
Return: $8610
Kembla Grange
$50 Win Holy Reign R3 @ $2.9 (TAB)
$10 E/W Cosimo R5 @ $8.5/$2.8 (BetEasy)
$30 Win Laburnum R6 @ $3.4 (BetEasy)
Kembla Grange Overview:
Made Holy Reign the best of the day. Kim Waugh trains this son of Manhattan Rain, who resumed over 1250m at Taree and stuck to the task very well I thought when second to Intrepidus. Normally you’d say no to Taree form, but the winner should have won on debut in a good maiden at the provincials and the time was solid relative to the day. Hoping Shinn can get three wide cover, peel wide and hopefully the horse can do the rest. I think the horse at value is Cosimo. I think he’s flying at the moment for Lauri Wray and the $8.50/thereabouts seems overs. Beaten narrowly two back at Nowra before racing on his home track at Warwick Farm where he couldn’t pick his feet up on the wet track. Back on firmer footing and Robbie Dolan could get anything over the line at the moment. One last chance to Laburnum. She’s better than these…I think. She’s shown so much talent throughout her career but is yet to fulfill the early promise. Had her chance first up at Randwick-Kensington I thought behind Royal Witness before going to Gosford where she was beaten narrowly by Don’t Leave Me Out. The forecast is for rain, and if it comes on race day, it’ll be perfect for her. Should win…but it’s last chance.
Warrnambool
$50 Win Von Mystic R6 @ $2.6 (Neds)
$50 Win Mumbles R8 @ $3.9 (Neds)
Warrnambool Overview:
Think there are near two good things here on the card, starting with the ever so consistent Von Mystic, who was over a month between runs when near the speed and fighting hard to win over this track/distance back on january 22. She scraped in and there are two schools of thought: 1) She’s a tired horse, been a good prep, time for the paddock or 2) first run in a month, improvement to come. Hoping it’s the latter and you’re getting a fair enough price to find out. I don’t think the price gap between Tee Train and Mumbles should be as big as it is. Mumbles should have absolutely bolted in at this track/distance two back but had no luck. He then went to the Inglis Dash down the Flemington and he was far from disgraced when fourth to Tropezina. Got race fitness on his side and I think $4/thereabouts is a fair enough price compared to Tee Train, who is first up and I can’t find a recent jumpout for.
