Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Tuesday’s (19/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Monday.
$10 E/W Reelwave R1 (Tote)
$30 Win Beidi R7 @ $4.6 (BetEasy)
$50 Win White Boots R8 (Tote)
Relatively solid meeting at Wyong. Jean Dubois has Reelwave on debut in the first and despite a tricky draw, I think this colt is worth an each way ticket at odds. His two trials this prep have been quite good to the eye. Each time he has been squeezed, there has been an instant response and has looked to move nicely. Lot of question marks in this race, but I can see him starting $15+ and running a decent race. This is well and truly D-Day for Beidi. Been a long time since he has contested a race as weak as this. Sat worse than midfield on the Kensington track last time and that is a track where those on speed are advantaged so a little forgive there behind Desert Lord. Drops to a relatively weak Class One and Waller is 23% at Wyong last 12 months. Made White Boots the best of the day but the price is nothing flash, so take the tote and hopefully gets to $2+. He trialled really well prior to resuming on the Kensington track where he was off the bit on the turn and looked as if he’d finish midfield or worse, but he picked up and was really good late when third to Desert Lord. Looks to lead these for fun, improved fitness and he looks clearly the horse to beat.
$40 Win First Tier R1 @ $3.4 (TAB)
$20 Win/$40 Place Sirius Deal R4 @ $12/$3.6 (Sportsbet)
I’ll be surprised if the market doesn’t flip and First Tier starts favourite over Blonde Disposition. The latter does have form around Amphitrite, which obviously is first class, but gee the recednt jumpout wasn’t inspiring and 1200m is likely short of her best trip. First Tier resumed in a maiden at Moonee Valley where she didn’t appear 100% happy on the tight track but when balanced up, she charged to the line and was good late when third to Kashiwa. Might want 1400m, but the long Seymour straight should ensure this is a strong 1200m and she’ll be strong at the end I’m sure. The value bet of the day is clearly Sirius Deal. He opened $67 which was just ridiculous and rightfully that’s been corrected. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to his two runs as a juvenile given he looked very new and raw to the caper. I would pay the attention to the form around those two races, which do read very well. Recent Ballarat jumpout looked very good, closing off under no real pressure when second to Reward The Dream, who is a solid 58/64 benchmark horse. There is no depth to this maiden at all and the Archie Alexander/Jordy Childs combo is batting at 21% the last 12 months.