Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (25/4/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Wednesday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $27815
Betting Strategy Return: $28057
Futures Outlay: $1795
Futures Return: $1871
Flemington
$10 Win/$20 Place Observational @ $21/$8 (TAB)
$20 Win Chaillot R3 @ $6.5 (TAB)
$50 Win Zoutori R5 @ $3.1 (Sportsbet)
Flemington Overview:
I think Observational is worth a throw at the stumps here in the first. Thought his run in the Easter Cup last Saturday was very good behind Plein Ciel. He copped the backwash of Magnapal breaking down and was forced wide on the turn. Never really in the hunt but his late splits were good and loved the way he charged through the line. Wanted to lay in too so a strong left hand whip rider in Mick Dee is a big tick and I think he can get the job done, hopefully at a price. I’m really keen to see how Chaillot goes. Archie Alexander trains this filly, who was unwanted in betting when debuting at Ballarat but despite having no friends in the market, she produced one of the wins of the day, putting them away really impressively from off the pace, and her time measured up really well relative to the day. Always a good sign for a two year old, especially at start one. Confident she’ll run well. Bet of the day here for mine in the shape of the Ellerton/Zahra trained Zoutori. This filly resumed under the lights at Pakenham where she had to overcome bias and an unsuitable trip but she won as if it was a barrier trial, rounding them up from off the pace and winning with ease in a race where the form has already been franked by Call It A Day. Should take good improvement and clearly the one to beat.
Randwick
$10 Win The Golden Bear R1 @ $11 (TAB)
$70 Win Girl Tuesday R5 @ $3.8 (TAB)
$20 Multi (Tote)
Libertini R2 Win
Twentyfour Carat R3 Place
Wolfe R7 Win
Randwick Overview:
Going with a first starter in the shape of the Mark Newnham trained The Golden Bear in the opener. This bloke has had seven trials in readiness for his first start, three of those being this time in. Latest trial came at Warwick Farm when back, and was under pressure, but responded and was quite good late behind the well performed McCreery. Looks to have the grounding for a decent showing on debut. Confidence levels aren’t high with Girl Tuesday, a mare who I had sacked after her second up run, where she did bugger all, much like the first up run. Contested blacktype at her next two and was just fair. Been freshened up and looked sharp in a 1200m trial win at Warwick Farm. If she brought her effort from the first prep, she’d win this, clearly. Just not sure where she’s at but gambling Waller has her right. One last chance with her, because the $3.8 does look acceptable.
