Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (21/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 8.30am Thursday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $18730
Betting Strategy Return: $18349
Futures Outlay: $860
Futures Return: $968
Pakenham
$20 Win Parlay 3,4 = $100 Cost
Alaskan Honey R1
Bonaparte R2
Absolutna R4
Lizard Island R5
Pakenham Overview:
No real value in Alaskan Honey solely so including her as part of a parlay. Made her the best of the day/night off what was really just a barrier trial last Thursday. I like Ethan Brown as a rider, but gee it was a poor steer and a horrendous watch if you were on. Can make a case she should have won despite only beating one runner home. Backs up straight away and Olly takes over. Normal luck and she wins. Olly should repeat the dose in the second aboard Bonaparte, resuming for Michael Moroney, and I’m noticing in jumpouts at Flemington that the stable are really impressing and it’s translating to race day eg Miss Ladybird at Kyneton on Wednesday. Soft gate, has the form on the board, should be winning. Second up syndrome off a long break is the only concern with Absolutna in the fourth. Hard in the market when resuming over 1400m here where he got back in an on pace dominated affair behind the well performed North Afrika. Remaining at 1400m and second up are the niggles, but does look hard to beat all the same. Has to carry the weight, but gee Lizard Island has class in the fifth. I thought his resumption at the Valley was more than satisfactory when behind Tbilisi, not getting much room in the straight either. The strike rate is a concern, but he has contested strong races since the debut and really, this is clearly the easiest race he has contested in some time, plus Olly jumps on.
