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Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Sunday’s (17/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Saturday.

Outlay: $11300
Return: $11675

Port Macquarie

$10 E/W Kid Mac R1 @ $9.5/$3.1 (Sportsbet)
$20 Win Uncle Sugar R3 @ $6.5 (BetEasy)
$10 Win/$50 Place Lucciola Belle R7 @ $8.5/$2.60 (BetEasy)

Port Macquarie Overview:

The first race looks a bit of a lottery and I think Kid Mac is value. Didn’t mind him at odds last week when he had his first run in NSW at Taree over 1000m. Just found them a bit sharp but his last 75-100m was really good. Straight to 1200m on the seven day turnaround and this race doesn’t have much depth. Near double figures looks a touch overs. $7/thereabouts looks a silly price for Uncle Sugar, who comes out of a decent middle distance race at Newcastle where he chased hard all the way and was far from disgraced behind Red Dubawi. Runner up was Seababe and she bolted in on Friday night, so the form reads well, much better than anything engaged here. The Qualifier looks Awesome Pluck’s to lose, but no real price to bet. I think the bet is Lucciola Belle, mainly to place. She was a dominant first up winner of the Queen Of The North, ran decent time and did it with seemingly improvement to come coat and condition wise. Awesome Pluck should win, but Lucciola Belle mainly to place looks the bet.

Sha Tin

$100 Win Multi @ $7.02 (Sportsbet)
Beauty Generation R6
Exultant R7
Dark Dream R9

Sha Tin Overview:

I think the $7 for that little multi looks more than acceptable. Beauty Generation is the best Hong Kong has to offer and coming back in trip is no issue IMO. He should roll forward, land on speed and class/brilliance/toughness gets him home. 1400m I think will be too far for Beat The Clock. I’m surprised that black figures is on offer for Exultant. He was dominant in the Centenary Vase, sitting off a good speed and unleashing late to win with plenty in hand. Just has to hold that form and he should be winning. I’m hot on Dark Dream for the Hong Kong Derby and I think he can get there via a win here. His run in the Classic Mile was enormous. Got a severe check via the chain reaction from Bowman on Furore, losing momentum. Picked up again and was very good. Purton back on, better barrier, back up to 2000m, he looks a near good thing. Bowman will need to produce an all time great steer to get Furore home from the gate.

 
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