Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (15/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Thursday.
$40 Win Judge Judi R1 (Tote)
$10 Win/$30 Place Red Dubawi R3 @ $8.5/$2.7 (Sportsbet)
$10 E/W So Spirited R7 @ $18/$4.4 (TAB)
Judge Judi looks a good thing in the first. Kim Waugh trains this mare, who is in fab form at the moment. Ran a couple of Friday nights back at this track/distance where she attempted to lead all the way and tried hard but was bloused near the peg by Chalk. Looks to lead these for fun and the depth here doesn’t look strong. Red Dubawi has come back in super order for Kerry Parker and was well rewarded for the consistency with a win from well back over 1800m at Newcastle, appreciating a good tempo and finishing best. Has a really good record at Canterbury and the $8.50 seems overs in a winnable race. I can’t believe So Spirited is $18. He comes through a strong race first up at Randwick where he was back and never really in the hunt but finished off well behind Junglized. The Bar Plates are off, depth isn’t as strong and just looks stupid odds IMO.
$30 Win Rock The World R1 (Tote)
$30 Win Guest R8 (Tote)
$10 Win Parlay 3,4 = $40 Cost
All Love R3
Was It Worth It R5
Too Hot To Hold R7
Rock The World looks extremely hard to beat in the first. Stirling Osland trains this filly, who did a really good job last prep, but by the end she looked to race like a tired horse. Been given a good break and with gate one, she should be able to take advantage and either lead or box seat. Whatever the case, hard to beat. Made Guest the best of the day. He has been good in two runs for the Jim Jarvis stable after formerly racing in Victoria. He just got too far back at Coffs Harbour but warmed to the task late and was good in a race which has produced three winners, so the form reads well and third up at 1400m, he looks well placed. Steve O’Dea doesn’t cross the border and he brings a strong team to Grafton. The blinkers go on All Love in the third and at her best, she should be too good for this lot. Back in trip should Was It Worth It in the fifth after not quite running out the 1800m last time. Too Hot To Hold was excellent first up at the Gold Coast and from the good draw, she looks extremely hard to beat.
$40 Win Rekindled Force R1
$40 Win Normality R4 @ $3.2 (BetEasy)
$10 E/W Sea Lady R7 (Tote)
D-Day for Rekindled Force. Paul Messara trains this talented galloper, who has been really disappointing in two runs back from a break, the latest at Scone when an ordinary fifth. The Blinkers are off and this looks a significant drop in depth for him. If he brings his best, he’ll win, but I’d want near $3. $2.20 at the moment is a price based on what he can do, not what he’s done this prep. Normality looks hard to beat in the fourth. Did some work to cross and lead last time at Muswellbrook but gave a good kick on the turn and looked home but Materiality nailed him on the line. Like him here against this lot, should get a good run near the speed and just about win. Sea Lady looks a good each way gamble in the Cup. Got a fair way off them last time at Parkes but eventually got clear and savaged the line late to just miss in a blanket finish. She has a big finish on her and if she’s within range on the turn, she’s certainly good enough.