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Image: Steve Hart

The Autumn Carnival is gathering some momentum with the big boys and girls stepping out already with other not far off beginning their 2019 and with that being the case, the futures markets are always a fascinating prospect.

So I’ve had a look at a few of the races with markets up and hopefully have found some value.

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March 30: Vinery Stud Stakes (2400m) @ Rosehill: I’m hot on Zalatte and really and surprised she’s at $17 to win this. Her run in the Surround was enormous IMO for a filly clearly wanting further. The way she attacked the line was very good and will be suited at this trip en route to the Oaks. Likely runs next in either the Phar Lap or Kembla Grange Classic before coming here, where for mine, she’s clearly the value.

Bet: $25 E/W @ $17/$5 (Sportsbet) (March 10)

 

March 30: Godolphin Mile (1600m) @ Meydan: I think there is value in the $2.50 about Muntazah. Cappezano is very likely to remain at a longer trip for the World Cup, and really, the way Muntazah won on March 9 at Meydan, it was just so impressive, leading all the way, smashing the clock and doing it under not much pressure, it’s hard seeing anything beating him, provided Cappezano goes to the World Cup.

Bet: $100 Win @ $2.5 (Sportsbet) (March 10)

 

March 30: UAE Derby (1900m) @ Meydan: Bear in mind that Divine Image is also a chance to run in the Kentucky Oaks and bypass this race, but if she goes to the Derby, she looks an absolute moral and the $4 will seem a gift. Won on March 9 at Meydan in a Group ll and won by over seven lengths without really fully asked by Brett Doyle in a commanding performance. She was bred in Kentucky, so the Oaks there is a live option, but she looks a good thing in the Derby IMO.

Bet: $50 Win @ $4 (Sportsbet) (March 10)

 

March 30: WA Oaks (2400m) @ Ascot: Looking at the WA Oaks weights and the market, surely $3.80/thereabouts Dark Choice seems the way to go. I’d assume Pike jumps on given she’s the Peters filly with the upside and is crying out for 2400m. I think normal luck and she’ll be far too good. The $3.80 with Sportsbet looks more than acceptable.
Bet: $100 Win @ $3.8 (Sportsbet) (March 24)

 

April 6: Doncaster Mile (1600m) @ Randwick: I think this bet will hinge on the All Star Mile. James Cummings would like Best Of Days to run in the All Star Mile, but given he’s way down in the voting, he won’t get a run unless there is a wildcard offered to him. I am hoping he doesn’t get there and comes to Sydney for the Doncaster because he’s already a proven handicap mile winner, and a brilliant one at that, when winning the Kennedy Mile in the Spring. I think if he heads to Sydney after the Futurity and misses the All Star Mile, he should be a near single figure chance.

Bet: $20 Win/$30 Place @ $26/$7.25 (TAB) (February 12)

 

April 6: Australian Derby (2400m) @ Randwick: I think Surely Sacred has been somewhat ignored from a Derby perspective after the Rosehill Guineas. He was warming to the task really nicely in Guineas but I reckon his condition just gave out late behind The Autumn Sun. The forecast is for fine weather so I am expecting him to be much better and the $15 does look overs.
Bet: $25 E/W @ $15/$4.5 (TAB) (March 24)

 

April 13: Provincial Championship Final (1400m) @ Randwick: There are two runners I want to back here, starting with Angel Of Truth for Gwenda Markwell. She’s won three of her four career starts and resumed with a dominant win at Kembla Grange despite being big in condition and looking in need of the run. She handles all conditions and a tough 1400m would be no issue for her. She’ll likely run in the Kembla Qualifier and unlike the Country Qualifiers where it’s first and second, first, second and third from the Provincial Qualifiers go through. I’ll also have something very small on Great Danger for Kris Lees. He’s won two of his three starts, the defeat coming at Taree on Sunday where he was a beaten odds on pop but far from disgraced with the big weight. Form around him does read okay and yes, clearly needs to improve, but at $101, he’s worth a throw at the stumps.

Bets: $20 Win Angel Of Truth @ $26 (TAB), $5 Win Great Danger @ $101 (TAB) (February (12)

 

April 13: Coolmore Legacy Stakes (1600m) @ Randwick: I’m near Egg Tart Queensland Oaks confidence levels when it comes to I Am Serious. I will be shocked if she doesn’t go close to winning this. She really got her confidence up in the Spring with a couple of sensational efforts, including behind Avilius. Her trials have been as good as you’ll see from a mare at her age and she saves her best for Randwick, plus a hard mile is perfect…why is she $15?

Bet: $50 E/W I Am Serious @ $15/$4.5 (TAB) (February 12)

 

April 13: ATC Oaks (2400m) @ Randwick: I think there is really good value about the Chris Waller trained Zalatte. Started her career in the Summer, winning 3/3, all of which came in town, which isn’t easy to do, and she looks a real Oaks type. No real turn of foot but she’s been the strongest at the end of each races. Might find them a bit sharp early on in a campaign, but 2000m+ is when you’ll see the best of her.

Bet: $25 E/W @ $26/$7.25 (TAB) (February 12)

 

April 20: All Aged Stakes (1400m) @ Randwick: $11+ at the time of writing this and with confirmation he’s coming for the race, I don’t think that will last. Looks a very good horse for Charlie Appleby who was absolutely dynamic when winning the Al Fahidi at Meydan, sitting off a moderate tempo before unleashing some brilliant late sectionals to get the win. He’s a bomb fresh horse suited at 1400m and if he brings his best form, cannot see him running poorly.
Bet: $50 E/W @ $11/$3.5 (Sportsbet) (March 11)

 

Results:

CF Orr Stakes: -$50 Kementari
Lightning Stakes: – $50 Nature Strip, – $50 Graff
CS Hayes Stakes: – $50 Ringerdingding
Blue Diamond Stakes: – $50 Athiri
Oakleigh Plate: + $75 Eduardo
Futurity Stakes: + $250 Alizee
Surround Stakes: – $100 Miss Fabulass
Australian Guineas: – $50 Verry Elleegant
Australian Cup: – $100 Avilius
Australian Cup: + $385 Shillelagh
All Star Mile: + $38 Alizee
Coolmore Classic: – $50 I Am Serious
Coolmore Classic: – $40 Jamaican Rain
Galaxy: – $20 Baller
Galaxy: – $25 Redzel
Golden Slipper: – $50 Exhilarates
Ranvet: + $105 He’s Eminent

 
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