A capacity field has been assembled for the time honoured Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick on Saturday, with Hitotsu looking to complete the VRC Derby/Australian Derby double.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Australian Derby.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Australian Derby
2022 Australian Derby Speed Map
The WaterBott pair of Zoumon and Castlereagh Kid look the two speed influences, with the latter the likely leader. Character won’t be far away, likely Maurice’s Medad, who should slide across.
2022 Australian Derby Runner Preview
1. Hitotsu: I just can’t see what beats him. The set up is awful, but that was said leading up to the VRC Derby and what happened there was something out of this world the manner in which he put them away. Outstanding return in the Australian Guineas when winning there and has to rate as the one to beat.
2. Alegron: Alegron should love the rise to 2400m. I didn’t think he was too bad in defeat behind Hitotsu at Flemington in the Australian Guineas. He got back and was nearer the inside, but made up some headway late, which was a pass mark for a Derby horse. Must for multiples.
3. Forgot You: Forgot You looks to be racing like 2400m suits. He was never a factor behind Anamoe in the Rosehill Guineas but I didn’t mind the way he toughed it out to run third. He ran a super race in the VRC Derby in the Spring when it was more an after thought. He’s been set for this, so not penning him.
4. Castlereagh Kid: Was the Alister Clark an end of prep run? Prior efforts were quite strong but he looked a tired horse at The Valley. If he can bounce off that in a positive manner, he can threaten. But I can’t back him.
5. Regal Lion: He is one of two from the Tulloch I can entertain. I think he has been well and truly over bet at $5.50 now but the run was excellent. In the right camp and that Tulloch/Derby formula has been gold in recent years.
6. White Noise: Sat near the speed in the Tulloch and tired late. Have to respect the stable, but I’d much prefer Regal Lion of that pair.
7. War Eternal: War Eternal is one I could entertain for wider multiples. I didn’t think he was too bad in defeat in the Alister Clark at The Valley when a close up third to Prix De Turn. He’s racing like 2400m will be okay and does have a liking for wet ground, so he’s in the mix.
8. Character: Given a peach from Tommy Berry to win the Tulloch on Monday. I don’t think he has a class edge of some sorts, but like the Tulloch, he lobs into a lovely spot and is a key threat.
9. Can’t Go Wong: He was an eye catcher from the back to run second in the Alister Clark. Is that the right form? I’m saying no, but Maher/Eustace in 2000m+ races, you can’t totally pen him.
10. Maurice’s Medad: Didn’t do a bad job last Friday in the Albury Cup after getting back in the run. They smashed the clock that race so that reads well and he dodged a wet track for his final run. Does that give him an edge? On overall form, can’t have him.
11. Raging Bull: Raging Bull was down to run in the Rosehill Guineas last time out but was scratched at the barriers. I thought he was a pass mark two back in the Hobartville before going to the Randwick Guineas where they rode him warm and he couldn’t finish. More effective IMO with a conservative steer.
12. Elzamee: Elzamee has a decent engine under the hood for the Price/Kent camp. Very good from the back in the Autumn Classic before contesting the Alister Clark where he was again an eye catcher from the back. I think he’ll love the 2400m on a bigger track and clearly appeals as a knockout chance.
13. Zoumon: Had the track pattern in his corner when winning at Canterbury three back. Two subsequent runs have been quite plain, including the Tulloch on Monday. Can’t entertain him here.
14. Clyde: For wider exotics, I could entertain him. Big win from the back at Canberra two back before sticking to the task okay in the Tulloch. I doubt he wins, but I could see him pinching a first four spot.
15. Benaud: Ridden cold in the Tulloch and was very good late when fourth. Was he flattered by the race shape? Perhaps. First four contender but can’t see him winning.
16. Footlights: First time he got to 2000m last time at Ballarat and he lapped it up. Off that, 2400m should be fine. Just doubt he has the class to win.
17. Sea Treasures: Peach from Bullock saw him win at Newcastle last Saturday. I doubt 2400m here will be an issue, but like a few engaged here, the class is a concern.
18. Akahata: His run was actually good in defeat at Wellington last time. But, this looks a bridge too far.
19. Asternishing (First Emergency): $251 is unders. Should be double that. He has none.
20. Mediaro (Second Emergency): Didn’t disgrace himself in the Rosehill Guineas. He’s a nice horse who will win races. Doubt it’s here.
21. Lukey Luke (Third Emergency): This is a big step up for him, but he looks a really nice horse. If he stays in one piece, I could see him be a Queensland Derby contender. Wouldn’t shock if he ran first four.
2022 Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5170
Group l Strategy Return: $10066.6
