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The 2021 Spring Carnival is fast approaching and while the numbers are down on previous years, the international contingent is there again to try and take the big three.

Here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners nominated across the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.

Away He Goes

Breeding: Farhh x Island Babe
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Career Stats: 16: 3-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/2414m
Career Best Win: Handicap, September 12 2020, Doncaster, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 3-2-3
Wet Track Stats: 4: 0-2-0
Short Summary: Has strong enough recent form to command respect.

Dubai Gold Cup (3200m), March 27 2021, Meydan, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

He is the horse in the nose roll. Seemingly had every chance, but was beaten by a world class stayer, who franked the form by winning the Ascot Gold Cup, comfortably beating Stradivarius, regarded as one of the best stayers in the world, so this is a very strong form reference.

Goodwood Cup (3219m), July 27 2021, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Trueshan is a high class stayer and is a good measuring stick for top UK stayers. Away He Goes isn’t as effective on wet ground but did try very hard in running second. The query is outside Trueshan, the depth was on the thin side, but still, a gallant effort by Away He Goes.

Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 21 2021, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Thought the run had plenty of merit. Back near last in the run before tracking up nicely. Just a bit one paced when the sprint went on but he kept at it and was solid in defeat behind Sonnyboyliston.


Final Summary:
Can understand there are better options back home for him, but I would have loved to see him in a Caulfield Cup. While he has run well at two miles, he hasn’t exactly savaged the line like a horse that is a coming Melbourne Cup winner. But, the form around him, his recent 3200m form, is very strong.

Dawn Patrol

Breeding: Galileo x Gwynn
Trainer: Rob Hickmott
Career Stats: 10: 2-2-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/3219m
Career Best Win: Loughbrown Stakes, September 27 2020, Curragh, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 1-2-2
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Short Summary: Overall, his form sees him as one of the key hopes.

Loughbrown Stakes (3219m), September 27 2020, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

The ride from Heffernan got the win for sure. Tucked in behind the speed, he was able to slice his way through the field and gee he was strong late in winning over the two miles in an impressive display after a game St Leger effort at Doncaster.

Long Distance Cup (3209m), October 17 2020, Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

I didn’t think he disgraced himself at all here in a quality staying contest won by Trueshan, who is one of the better stayers in the UK and was dominant here, as he has been on a number of occasions over the last 12 months. Dawn Patrol didn’t throw in the towel and stayed on to run sixth.

Feehan Stakes (1600m), September 4 2021, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

I thought this was a definite pass mark. The tempo was a crawl, he was back on the tight track…just an ugly set up, but his finale was more than sound in a race where the form out of it has been strong despite the race itself rating poorly, with Sierra Sue, Nonconformist and Superstorm running well post this.

Final Summary: He is high up in the markets for the Cups and can understand to an extent why given the colours, the form and his profile, which is not too dissimilar to recent Cup winners and those who have performed very well from overseas. He’s got to be respected big time.

Gold Trip

Breeding: Outstrip x Sarvana
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Career Stats: 10: 1-3-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2200/2200m
Career Best Win: Prix Greffulhe, June 6 2020, Lyon-Parilly, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 1: 0-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 9: 1-3-1
Short Summary: He’s got the form around to give the Cox Plate a shake.

Prix Garnay (2100m), May 2 2021, Longchamp, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Excellent run from off the speed. Mare Australis was given a peach in front by Boudot and to the credit of Gold Trip, he finished his race off strongly and safely held the rest in a good effort.

Grand Prix De Saint Cloud (2400m), July 4 2021, Saint Cloud, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Gee he did a super job to get as close as he did given the winner, Broome, got complete control in front. Loved the way he finished his race off and confirms once again that he’s very good despite the winning strike rate.


Final Summary:
He’s only won one race, but I’m warming to him more and more. Lightly raced with strong form, he attacks the line, handles all conditions and if he brings the best version of himself to the Valley, he’ll make sure Zaaki knows it’s not a one horse race as most are thinking.

Master Of Reality

Breeding: Frankel x L’Ancresse
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 22: 5-4-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/2816m
Career Best Win: Vintage Crop Stakes, April 28 2019, Navan, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 2-3-0
Wet Track Stats: 12: 3-1-2
Short Summary: Third time lucky? Potentially, but needs juice in the track.

Levmoss Stakes (2816m), May 14 2021, Leopardstown, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

I think a bit more was expected from him here. He was gone a fair way out and just battled late, beating one runner home and beaten over 10+ lengths in a plain effort, which followed a pleasing return in the Vintage Crop.

Her Majesty’s Plate (2743m), July 23 2021, Down Royal, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

His second straight win in the race and was quite dominant in getting the job done, being very strong at the end. The time he ran this year compared to his win in the race last year, he ran very quick time, so that adds more merit.

Irish St Leger (2816m), September 12 2021, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

This run for me confirmed my initial thoughts. To be a top contender, he needs juice in the track. He was really plain here, beaten out of sight, and if you are purely going off this run, he’s no chance of turning the tables on Twilight Payment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/curraghrace/status/1437082308209741829


Final Summary:
I think he has to be respected. Admittedly, that win two back didn’t contain an overly strong field, but he was impressive and the clock backed up the eye. Arguably should have won the Melbourne Cup two years ago, then last year was no chance on the rock hard track. If he gets a bit of give in the ground, he’s a definite contender.

Pondus

Breeding: Sea The Moon x Diablerette
Trainer: Rob Hickmott
Career Stats: 17: 3-7-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2002m/2389m
Career Best Win: Lenebane Stakes, July 7 2020, Rosscommon, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 9: 1-4-1
Wet Track Stats: 8: 2-3-0
Short Summary: I think he’s not far off top seed for Team Williams.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) November 7 2020, Flemington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Just beaten by a Bowman gem aboard True Self. Pondus did get a bit keen in the run and I reckon that took something away from his finale. And also in hindsight, this race was more an afterthought given he missed out on a Melbourne Cup berth. Still, a run full of merit.

Curragh Cup (2816m), June 27 2021, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Definite pass mark in his first run for 2021. It was essentially a barrier trial for him. Got back off the speed, let the leader/winner do as it pleased in front and was miles too good. Pondis did a good job to get as close as he did.

Final Summary: He’s had the prep/experience in Australia and thrived. Admittedly just one run of evidence, but he took that back home and ran well again. Now with Hickmott, we’ve seen him produce the goods recently with these former Team Williams Irish gallopers ie Hosier, so I’m giving enormous respect to Pondus.

Rodrigo Diaz

Breeding: Golden Horn x Kitty Wells
Trainer: David Simcock
Career Stats: 12: 4-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2212m/2815m
Career Best Win: Handicap, June 5 2021, Doncaster, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 4-3-1
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Short Summary: The more I look into his form, the more I warm to him.

Handicap (3319m), July 17 2021, Newbury, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Thought this run was full of merit. Tucked in behind the speed before angling clear and he chased strongly. Just wanted to lay in under pressure and I reckon that cost him the win in the end when a narrow second.

Freer Stakes (2671m), August 14 2021, Newbury, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Big pass mark I thought when second to a very classy animal in Hukum. He sat off the pace and finished his race with purpose to finish second behind the Shadwell horse. IMO, this run rubber stamps him as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender.

Doncaster Cup (3600m), September 10 2021, Doncaster, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

He ran out of his skin. Given the small field, it was a sit/sprint, and against Stradivarius, he was no chance of matching motors with him, but did a very good job to run fourth, ticking the box for me that he’s a Melbourne Cup contender.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ODDSbibleRacing/status/1436326293931450371


Final Summary:
On his 2021 deeds, it’s easy to see why Australian Bloodstock have singled him out as their key Melbourne Cup horse, and I think an even better lead is that Jamie Spencer is keen to stick, and given he’ll have to do quarantine etc, that might be a lead he has a good opinion of this horse. I have Spanish Mission as #1 for the overseas contingent. This guy isn’t far behind.

Sir Lucan

Breeding: Camelot x Sparrow
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott
Career Stats: 8: 2-1-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609/2615m
Career Best Win: Yeats Stakes, May 15 2021, Navan, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-1-0
Short Summary: Lightly raced Northern Hemisphere three year old. Good recipe for a Melbourne Cup.

Gordon Stakes (2412m), July 29 2021, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Great run in defeat behind a horse who I think will be a Cup contender in the future, Ottoman Emperor. He chased strongly from off the speed out wide and just missed out on the win in a good effort.

Great Voltigeur Stakes (2384m), August 18 2021, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

He was good in a quality race with strong depth. Yibir is above average, Kemari was touted as a Melbourne Cup prospect, so the form out of this I think will hold up and Sir Lucan closed his race off nicely to run fourth.

St Leger (2922m), September 11 2021, Doncaster, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Beaten comprehensively here, but the winner was Hurricane Lane, who is regarded as one of the best in the world, so the form is A1 despite him being beaten around 14 lengths. He was off the bit quickly and didn’t produce any real change up speed.

https://mobile.twitter.com/godolphin/status/1436703326247215106


Final Summary:
I was ready to tout him as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender, but the St Leger run has me worried that he might be a tired horse. But, the WaterBott camp will get their hands on him and last time they got a quality stayer from overseas was Fiorente, and we know what he went on to do.

Spanish Mission

Breeding: Noble Mission x Limonar
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Career Stats: 18: 6-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/3600m
Career Best Win: Belmont Derby, September 7 2019, Belmont Park, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 16: 5-4-3
Wet Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Short Summary: Brings his UK form down under, he’s the one to beat depending on what weight he gets.

Yorkshire Cup (2787m), May 14 2021, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Lot of class/quality about this win. Had to be shoved along to get into his work later in the race but as the race went on, he got better and was dominant, beating a high class animal in Santiago, so the form is very strong.

Gold Cup (4014m), June 17 2021, Royal Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Mighty in defeat behind a world class stayer, Subjectivist. Loomed as some sort of threat at the top of the straight but the eventual winner stole a winning break and held a safe margin. Spanish Mission stayed on to run third and actually beat home Stradivarius.

Lonsdale Cup (3269m), August 20 2021, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

It’s in the mix for race of the year. Wonderful clash between two class stayers, and as champions do, they find a way to lift and that was the case for Stradivarius in an epic battle up the straight. Spanish Mission was all over a winner but the champ dug in when required.


Final Summary:
I was keen on him running well in the race last year but connections decided to wait another 12 months, get his rating properly up, have that hardened experience against the big boys and I think it’s been the making of him. If he brings what he has produced to date in the UK down under, he’s the one to beat.

State Of Rest

Breeding: Starspangledbanner x Repose
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 8: 2-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1207m/1911m
Career Best Win: Saratoga Derby, August 7 2021, Saratoga, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 2-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-0-0
Short Summary: Give him a dry Moonee Valley deck and he’s right in this.

Celebration Stakes (1609m), June 26 2021, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

I think you could easily make a case to say he wins this instead of a luckless third to Fourhometwo, a horse who I think could be a sleeper for the Golden Eagle now it’s with Annabel Neasham, so this form is a tick.

Saratoga Derby (1911m), August 7 2021, Saratoga, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface

There was a bit of dominance about this win, aided by a peach from a tricky draw by Velasquez. This field was very strong on paper and did contain Cadillac, who was on the Cox Plate radar at one stage, so this is a strong form line.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WorldRacing1/status/1424118566954192904

Final Summmary: He’s got the looks and the engine under the hood to command. Zaaki is the talk of the town and rightfully so, but this guy has the O’Brien polish, he has a turn of foot…the query will be if we get a wet track, because a drop of rain and he’ll struggle. A firm deck and he’s a definite winning chance.

Twilight Payment

Breeding: Teofilo x Dream On Buddy
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 36: 9-11-8
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2414m/3218m
Career Best Win: Melbourne Cup, November 3 2020, Flemington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 18: 4-7-2
Wet Track Stats: 18: 5-4-6
Short Summary: Regarded by the camp as their top speed for the Melbourne Cup from overseas despite the weight and is finding form.

Gold Cup (4014m), June 17 2021, Royal Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

This was a brutally run affair won by the leader Subjectivist, who was given a 12/10 front running steer by Joe Fanning and was miles too good. Twilight Payment had his heart broken and just didn’t run the trip out.

https://mobile.twitter.com/attheraces/status/1441311441466929152?lang=bg

Irish St Leger Trial (2816m), August 13 2021, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface

Dropped back in grade/depth/distance and bounced back to his best, sitting on speed throughout and finding plenty under pressure to get the job done in his first win since the Melbourne Cup.

Irish St Leger (2816m), September 12 2021, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface

Sat on speed for most of the run before taking the lead early on in the straight where he was strongly challenged by Ebor winner Sonnyboyliston. Those two had a great struggle, with the latter getting the verdict, just, in what was a high class race.

https://mobile.twitter.com/curraghrace/status/1437082308209741829


Final Summary:
History says it is very difficult to win back-to-back Cups. But history also once said you couldn’t win the race without a lead up run in Australia and that has been smashed in recent years. Times are changing and he is finding form at the right time. Has a good racing pattern and is tough. He’ll be hard to beat even allowing for the weight.

 
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