2014 Blue Diamond Prelude (F) tips, preview and selections

The Darley operation has already won this race twice (Guelph, Camarilla) and took out the colts and geldings Blue Diamond Preview last fortnight with Mohave. Here they hope to add another Blue Diamond feature to their tally as Earthquake lines up the short priced favourite for Saturday’s race ($1.70). Favourites have had a good record in this race, having won the last three editions. Her only danger according to the market is Eloping ($7.50) and Top Dolly ($8.50) the only other runners in the field of eleven that are under double figures.

Blue Diamond Prelude (F) Form Guide

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1. ELOPING – S Baster (3)

Scored a strong 2 ½ length win on debut in a Bendigo maiden (900m) and backed that up with another good performance, winning the Blue Diamond Preview a fortnight ago when leading all the way to score by a length. The daughter of Choisir has submitted two professional performances and will do so again her from a good draw. She’ll keep the favourite honest.

Odds: $7.50

2. GOLCONDA – V Duric (7)

She made good ground late up the Flemington straight when third on debut in the G3 7news Stakes behind Oakleigh Girl and Top Dolly on Cup Day before, a week and a half later, comfortably taking out the Listed Desiree Stakes (1000m) here at Caulfield by three lengths as the 7/4 favourite. More was expected of her when she returned to racing in the Blue Diamond Prelude a fortnight ago as a 5/2 chance. She found herself in the right sport turning and did cop a bit of bump in the run but still wanted to see a bit more from her over the final stages.

Odds: $15.00

3. EARTHQUAKE – D Browne (5)

Looked very smart winning a barrier trial at Rosehill back in October and confirmed that to be true comfortably taking out a Randwick Open 2yo race when making her debut ten days later. She sat on the speed before pulling away from Sheer Style late to win by 2 ½ lengths with plenty in reserve. Stable know what it takes to win this race and would have had this firmly in her sights since that win Drawn ideally in five and will take plenty of beating.

Odds: $1.70

4. LUMOSTY – M Zahra (9)

A $185k purchase from the Inglis Easter Sale, she began the task of repaying her connections by running second in the Blue Diamond Preview on debut a fortnight ago. The daughter of Fastnet Rock, trained by local conditioner Robert Smerdon, was a bit green in her efforts to chase down Eloping but only finished a length in arrears. She would have taken enormous benefit from that experience but has drawn awkwardly out in gate 9.

Odds: $14.00

5. TOP DOLLY – C Williams (11)

The Tom Hughes Jnr representative wasn’t seen at any trials but regardless, stepped out as the 5/2 favourite when making her debut in the G3 7news Stakes on Cup Day last year. The Choisir filly, by Royal Academy mare Dux Of The Class, finished well late up the Flemington straight and finished second to Oakleigh Gal. That’s a good form reference given Oakleigh Girl’s subsequent efforts and she would not have had to improve much over the break to figure strongly here but has drawn the outside gate.

Odds: $8.50

6. TOP SIGHT – M Payne (4)

Enjoyed the solid pace and finished strongly to win her on debut at Caulfield over 1000m mid-January. Second and third in that race were Sakitto and Cautious. Sakitto has subsequently ran third in the Blue Diamond Preview behind Eloping whilst Cautious also performed well at her next start, running third to the very promising Nayeli last week in the G3 Chairman’s Stakes. Top Sight, a filly by Bon Hoffa, will have improved further and from gate four, get a nice run throughout here. Rates a good place chance at $26.00

Odds: $26.00

7. PIACENZA – M Rodd (2)

Started 5/2 favourite on debut on the Listed Debutante Stakes back in October but unfortunately for her backers and trainer Tony McEvoy, not much went right in the run and from near last on the turn, she did well to finish two lengths third behind Moonlight Hussler. The Denman filly’s next start was fortnight ago at Morphettville. As the 9/10 on favourite, no risks were taken this time and she led the 1000m event before weakening late and finishing 1 ¼ lengths to Duckworth. Fitter again but will find this no easier than last start.

Odds: $15.00

8. SINGULARITY – D Oliver (10)

The daughter of Not A Single Doubt got a long way back on debut in the Listed Debutante Stakes and was only fair home when sixth of eleven (5.2 lengths) Trainer Robbie Griffiths then entered her three weeks later in the G3 7news Stakes up the Flemington straight, where she finished well to claim third (2 ¾ lengths) behind Oakleigh Girl and Top Dolly. Good effort in smart race last time out but from a wide gate, will probably be giving some better chances a start here on the turn.

Odds: $19.00

9. MUMBAI ROCK – G Boss (8)

The Fastnet Rock filly set connections back a cool $1.55 million dollars at the Inglis Easter Sales last year, so expectations will be high as she steps out for the first time in her career here. Trained by David Hayes, she hasn’t been seen at any public trials and currently quoted a $26 chance in betting.

Odds: $21.00

10. ROYAL OCEAN – C Newitt (6)

Another debutante also by Fastnet Rock, she was secured for $160k. Trainer Mick Price teamed up with Craig Newitt to win this race two years back with Samaready who was having only her second race start. Royal Ocean ran fourth behind Earthquake at her only trial just over a week ago and is $26 in early markets.

Odds: $26.00

11. SNITBITS – B Avdulla (1)

This will be the first chance connections have to recoup some of the $120k purchase price they forked out for the Snitzel filly. Drawn well for a debutante in gate 1, she’ll be able to trail the likes of Eloping and Earthquake but will have to be ultra smart to get the better of that pair given what we’ve seen of them so far.

Odds: $126.00

RACE OVERVIEW

When Darley have a favourite in a 2yo feature race, they very rarely miss. Earthquake has had big wraps on her from the very start and hasn’t shown any reason so far that she is not capable of living up to the expectations. Eloping appears the likely, possibly only, danger. She has gone about her business in good style in her two wins and again be in this for a long way. The improvers, who will both have to come back from in the field, could be Lumosty and Top Sight. Lumosty will be much better for the experience of her debut run whilst there is enough good form references around Top Sight’s smart debut win, to suggest she may be capable of adding value to the exotics.

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