A strong card of racing has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday, highlighted by the $150,000 Listed Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:10pm) : Elizabeth Dunkley & Jason Lee Handicap (70) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Leaning towards Jacksay (Best Odds: $7.50) here for Tony McEvoy. His two runs at South Australia this time in were very good, starting off with a surging win at Gawler (Metro) before going to Morphettville Parks and was given a peach from Todd Pannell to win impressively. Comes to Melbourne in ripping form and he strikes a winnable race.
Big Danger: Gredington (Best Odds: $11.00) ran an even seventh to the horse down below at Caulfield, where he just got a long way back and couldn’t really pick up and had to settle for a disappointing seventh. He is much better than that, the bigger track should suit and I like the fact that a senior rider has been engaged despite the horse carrying 60kg, perhaps a sign of confidence.
Roughie: Starsi (Best Odds: $17.00) is a Darren Weir who worked home well late on the Geelong Synthetic before going to Caulfield and was ridden a touch closer to the tempo and finished off strongly to get the job done impressively. There looks to be good upside with this bloke and he should be in the finish.
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Race Two (12:45pm) : Louis Polgar & Jason Vance Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $1.40) has won his past two starts in very impressive fashion, with the latest coming over this track/distance when ridden a treat by Katelyn Mallyon. She was injured in trackwork during the week, but the horse loses nothing with Tom Sadler on board, because he also rides the horse very well. Looks the leader here and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Desert Jeuney (Best Odds: $1.40) should appreciate the step up to 1400m after a contesting a heat of the Victorian Sprint Series, then contested the Final. He was solid in both runs without being spectacular, but now up to this trip and away from the straight course, he should be ready to show something, because I know the stable has lofty ambitions for this horse.
Roughie: The watch horse here is Ihtsahymn (Best Odds: $10.00), the former Perth galloper who is now under the care of Patty Payne. He was quite ordinary during the Summer Carnival back home, which was a shame because he was a star the previous Carnival. He will have bigger fish to fry this Spring, but the new surroundings and a different environment could spark his best form.
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Race Three (1:20pm) : Meville Yates & Craig Dann Handicap (84) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Barely A Scent (Best Odds: $7.50) was pretty good in defeat two back when on the worst part of the track at Bendigo before racing there again last time out and she was given a peach steer from Ollie to get the job done. Steps up to Saturday grade, but this race doesn’t appear overly strong, and though drawn awkwardly, she looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Herstory (Best Odds: $2.50) was given a beaut ride from Dwayne Dunn to win over this track/distance three weeks back, sitting on speed all the way and dashing clear in the straight to win in very impressive fashion. First run as a four year old mare against the seasoned campaigners is never easy, but she is in ripping form and she maps quite well.
Roughie: Northern Saint (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed at Caulfield a couple of weeks back and worked home very strongly late when running third to the in form mare Forgeress, beaten just over two lengths. Her jump outs leading up to the fresh run were excellent, and the first up run indicated that she has returned in very good order. Trained on the track, carries only 53kg and will love a firm surface, if the weather remains fine.
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Race Four (1:55pm) : Julie Aldridge & Cynthia Norton Handicap (90) 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: This just looks Abbasso’s (Best Odds: $3.00) race to lose IMO. He lifted under Ollie to win two back at Sale before coming here and Ollie was at it again, producing a gem to get this bloke home in great style. This is a very thin race outside him, and really, if just at least holds his form, he should prove far too good for these once again.
Big Danger: By The Grace (Best Odds: $4.00) has been given a little freshen up after contesting the Winter Championship Final where he worked home very strongly late to run sixth to Amovatio, beaten less than two lengths in a great finish. This a big drop in class, but the little query is that he hasn’t raced in a month. Still, he should be right in the finish.
Roughie: Vizhaka (Best Odds: $10.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at the Valley over the mile when running a disappointing seventh to Lake Sententia. His first up run here behind Charmed Harmony was an absolute beauty, and Brad Rawiller jumps back aboard and he has ridden the horse to success in previous preparations. Can bounce back.
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Race Five (2:30pm) : Richard Beckman & Mark Young Handicap (84) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for Heavy (Best Odds: $4.20). He produced a strange run two back at Caulfield when he looked as though he was going to drop off and finish near last, but he picked up and really savaged the line. Ollie then got on last start over 2400m at Caulfield and he looked the winner on the turn, but he just petered out and had to settle for third to Monteux. Back to 2000m is ideal, Ollie suits and the bigger track here should give him every chance to bounce back to the winners list.
Big Danger: Refulgent (Best Odds: $4.80) took an absolute eternity to break through this time in, but he finally delivered for his supporters last time out in the Gold Heath at Caulfield, aided by an absolute peach from Brad Rawiller. Now that he has got the win on the board, he could go right on with it, especially from gate one and with Rawiller sticking.
Roughie: Gingerboy (Best Odds: $9.00) tried very hard a couple of weeks back over 1800m at Caulfield when making up good ground late to run seventh to Miss Rose De Lago, beaten just under three lengths. He has been kept up to the mark with a recent jumps trial, and that is a formula that has proven successful with Darren Weir runners in the past. Definite improver at odds.
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Race Six (3:10pm): Timothy Kelly & Kevin Viney Handicap (78) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Waller and Ollie again for me here in the shape of Liberty Island (Best Odds: $4.50). He was given every chance by Bossy two back in the Silver Bowl Final here but ran third to Raposo before going to this distance at Caulfield a couple of weeks back and he just got too far back from the wide gate when fourth to in form galloper Volcanic Ash. Draws much better here and Ollie on…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: So Does He (Best Odds: $3.90) is on the quick back up after racing on Sunday at Horsham, and though he didn’t beat much, he was quite dominant and ended up winning quite comfortably. Harder here, but there is plenty of upside with him and the stable is having a fantastic run at the moment. Draws well and should be in the finish.
Roughie: Cross Of Gold (Best Odds: $17.00) returns to the turf after a few runs on the Geelong Synthetic where he has been good without winning, with his last start being the real eye catcher when he worked home strongly from the back in a race dominated by those near the speed. His efforts at Flemington in the past have been scratchy, but this race isn’t as strong as past efforts on this track, he draws well and gets in well at the weights after the claim for Dylan Dunn.
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Race Seven (3:50pm): Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tony McEvoy gets it spot on most times when he travels horses, and I am confident he will get it right again here thanks to Shiraz (Best Odds: $2.20), who has been outstanding in two Rosehill wins to kick off his prep. Toughest test to date here, but he has the fitness edge on his side, Ollie on board and is on the minimum. Extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: It’s good to see Trust In A Gust (Best Odds: $3.90) back on the track after an injury plagued Winter, which saw him only run once, in the Gold Sprint at Caulfield when running second to Red Bomber as a very short priced favourite. He will be better with fitness and as the distance increases, but he is the sort of horse that will bust a gut every start, and he has loads of class on these.
Roughie: Living On A Prayer (Best Odds: $101.00) ran sixth behind Il Cavallo, and considering he was an outsider in that race, he ran quite well I thought. This looks a significant drop in class, and his record at 1000m is very good. He hasn’t won for a while, but this looks the sort of race where a horse like him can get the job done, because it does seem tricky to sort out.
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Race Eight (4:30pm): Nathan O’Mara & Terry Jolley Handicap (84) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tansy (Best Odds: $11.00) scored a strong win two back at Ballarat (Metro) before stepping out over this track/distance and running well but had to settle for second to Il Cavallo, who ran well last weekend at the Valley. Tansy drops a bit in class here and he handles all conditions, and this field isn’t the strongest going around.
Big Danger: Antarctic Missile (Best Odds: $5.50) tried hard when resuming at Bendigo (Metro) a couple of weeks back, but she couldn’t quite reel in Pink Perfection, who had it too good in front. She returns to the straight course here where she has run very well in three runs, with a win and two strong efforts behind Group l performer Chloe In Paris. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Canberra visitor Wonderbolt (Best Odds: $13.00) comes here after a very good effort last time out over this distance at Randwick when second to impressive winner Darciwood, who will go around at Randwick as the one to beat in his respective race. This is an open race, and Cartwright sticks with the galloper, so he is a definite chance in a wide affair.
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Race Nine (5:05pm) : Leanne Sanderson & Denis Hansen Handicap (84) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Artistic Lass (Best Odds: $15.00) has been quite solid at her past two outings for Darren Weir, starting off with a strong win at Sale before going to the Bool and plugging away solidly when third to Zazparella, beaten 1.5L. Back to 2000m suits her perfectly, and despite rising in depth, she should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Iteration (Best Odds: $4.60) was having her second run on Aussie soil over 1800m here three weeks back and was given every chance by Mick Dee, but the mare couldn’t quite hold out the finishing burst of in form mare Lily Dazzler. Third up now at 2000m looks ideal, she should be cherry ripe fitness wise and looks the main threat.
Roughie: Managaress (Best Odds: $4.20) produced a strange run in the Gold Heath a fortnight back at Caulfield. She looked to travel well off the speed, then quickly came off the bit before the turn and seemingly was going nowhere. But she picked up, surged late and rattled home for fourth to Refulgent, beaten 1.5L. Her record at Flemington is excellent, and despite taking on the older mares for the first time, she is rock hard fit and gets in on the minimum.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Shiraz
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Abbasso
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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 13
Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 10, 12
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