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Randwick backs up from their Melbourne Cup Day program with another strong eight race card on Saturday afternoon to run alongside Stakes Day at Flemington. The weather is fine, the track is dead and the rail is out 11 metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out nine metres for the remainder.

 

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Race One (12:40pm) : TAB Betting Season Plate 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: I think a couple of first starters hold the key here. I was impressed by the way Carriages (Best Odds: $3.00) went about her barrier trial a couple of weeks back at Randwick, sitting on the speed and looking to travel beautifully before being nabbed on the line under a hold. Has the claim for Winona Costin and is on her home track.
Big Danger: Italy (Best Odds: $2.80) trialled last week at Warwick Farm and she also led throughout. She held on to win by a half length under no pressure, and also looked to travel sweetly. Bred to handle give in the ground, and the stable is flying.
Roughie: Run Louie Run  (Best Odds: $14.00) is a first starter for David Vandyke who trialled nicely at Warwick Farm, running third to a couple of smart Godolphin types, albeit beaten six lengths. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs against a couple of likely ones here, but anything can happen in these early two year old races.

 

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Race Two (1:20pm) : 2015 Membership On Sale Now Handicap (75) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: There was plenty to like about the all the way win of Powerline (Best Odds: $8.00) last time out over this distance at Warwick Farm, showing a really sharp turn of foot on the home turn and safely holding his rivals at bay. Looks to be a bit more speed here, but I think he will be even better off the speed and he has shown in barrier trials that he can handle rain affected tracks, so I don’t see a reason to jump off him.
Big Danger: Good Project (Best Odds: $5.50) was caught wide here first up behind Slightly Sweet so forgive him there. He then went to Rosehill and looked the winner 100m out but was beaten by a brilliant finishing burst from Wine Tales. Don’t worry about that form not being franked because that filly had no luck on Cup Day. Good Project is a handy type and is bred to swim.
Roughie: Hauraki (Best Odds: $4.40) eased in the market on debut at Kembla Grange but gee he was impressive, displaying a really slick final sectional to sweep past his rivals with ease and ran near sub 33 for his final 600m. Bred to be okay in the wet, but did run near last in a barrier trial back in May on a heavy track, so that’s the concern, but he is a quality animal.

 

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Race Three (2:00pm) : Drummond Golf Handicap (80) 1150m: Form Guide

Back Me: Fare Well (Best Odds: $4.00) comes back to Sydney after two runs in Melbourne, where she didn’t disgrace herself in a couple of blacktype races behind some quality opposition, including Target In Sight and Griante. Considering that, she looks beautifully placed here for Jim Cassidy, drawn well and is a winner in the wet.
Big Danger: Bonsai can be a real hit and miss type to follow. One run he is fantastic, like two back when he bolted in, then next time out, he can be horrendous, like last time out, but he was caught wide on the hot speed. He won’t be getting my money because he isn’t reliable, but he is a definite threat here.
Roughie: The lack of speed here gives Claradini (Best Odds: $18.00) a chance in a tricky race. He was given a freshen after failing at Newcastle and went to Warwick Farm where I thought he was quite game after doing work out wide behind Just A Girl, finishing two lengths away in fifth. No weight on his back, soft track, and perhaps a soft lead, should see this gelding figure somewhere in the finish.

 

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Race Four (2:40pm) : Ranvet Handicap (85) 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Ball Of Muscle (Best Odds: $2.60) is a handy prospect for Joe Pride who resumes here after nearly four months in the spelling paddock. He was last seen during the Winter at Canterbury when doing a stack of work on the speed yet found when asked and duly won. Couple of trials to prepare for this have been sharp, flies fresh, in well at the weights and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Holder Sunset (Best Odds: $6.00) also resumes after a pretty strong Winter prep, which saw the mare win a race and place on another occasion and then racing against some good company, including Big Money and Rifelman. Latest trial win was outstanding, and ran good time. Very good mare when produced fresh and will be up near the speed, hopefully with cover.
Roughie: The likelihood of a hot tempo is going to suit Qfighter (Best Odds: $10.00), who makes his Sydney debut for Gerald Ryan. He showed good promise when trained in Queensland, but his racing pattern of getting back and running on produced more bad luck than good. Resumes without a trial, but is a two time first up winner and will be steaming home late.

 

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Race Five (3:20pm) : Time To Shop At TAB Handicap (88) 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Amovatio (Best Odds: $2.40) has been outstanding in two runs back from a break, running a narrow second to Woodbine at Rosehill before getting not much luck here when getting a tad too far back and savaging the line late to run fourth to Excess Knowledge. Stays at the Randwick mile, but a senior rider is back aboard, and he was due to run at Flemington during Cup week, so Chris Waller obviously thinks the horse is going well enough. Looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Scorpio Queen (Best Odds: $3.85) has had two runs back from a break and has been quite good at each. First up she was only two lengths of Famous Seamus in the Premiere Stakes (1200m), then raced over 1400m here and worked to the line strongly behind Mahara, who came out and won on Cup day at Flemington. I am sure Kris Lees could have used an apprentice, but has instead gone for the senior, telling me he is confident about this mare.
Roughie: A bigger track and some give in the ground could suit the veteran campaigner Scottish Border, (Best Odds: $26.00) who was okay I thought last time out at Canterbury behind So Nostalgic. Thewinner dominated from the front and gave nothing from the back a look in, but Scottish Border was pretty good through the line late. He is a two time Randwick mile winner, loves the sting out of the track, and isn’t that badly weighted.

 

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Race Six (4:00pm) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (80) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: 60kg is a real steadier, but the class Brook Road (Best Odds: $4.00) has on these may just get her home here. Her two runs since joining the Kris Lees camp has been excellent. First up she savaged the line to run second to Boss Lane, then went to the Nivison (1200m) here and ran a close second to Group l performer Avoid Lightning. Despite the weight, she is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: All Cerise (Best Odds: $5.50) has burnt my wallet too many times, so I can’t back her again, but she will definitely be a threat here. She has been very good in four runs back from a freshen up. In saying that, she had her chance last week at Rosehill when a well held third to Hera and Fine Bubbles, but both of those are blacktype winners. Take away the top weight, and this is a pretty thin race, so if Brook Road is off, All Cerise will be the one.
Roughie: Sensualism (Best Odds: $9.00) has been freshened up since running third to Villa Splendido at Rosehill in mid September. She has residual fitness, so I don’t think not running for over a month will be an excuse because she did trial particularly well recently behind Our Boy Malachi, who was a top winner last weekend. Look for her late.

 

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Race Seven (4:40pm) : Shop With The TAB App Handicap (80) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: So Nostalgic (Best Odds: $2.60) has promised to be a very good horse during his career, but hasn’t gone to that expected level. In saying that, he still does have a decent record and absolutely toyed with them last time out under the lights at Canterbury, leading all the way under the guidance of Jim Cassidy, who rides again here. He will do his own thing in front and take a power of beating, although I will say that $2.50 is way too short. Wait til race day and you’ll get better.
Big Danger: Former European Zayam (Best Odds: $6.00) made his Australian debut during the Newcastle carnival and was very good there when a close up third, then went to the bog Warwick Farm surface and plugged it out best to win narrowly. No doubt he will be better on a firmer track here, and rising to 1800m should suit, as should a colder ride perhaps from the wide gate.
Roughie: Casino Dancer backs up from last Saturday at Rosehill where I thought she worked home well late behind the in form Frespanol, running a solid fifth, beaten five lengths. Up in trip is a big tick, stays down in the weights and does race quite well at Randwick, so I expect her to be more than competitive here.

 

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Race Eight (5:20pm) : Declaration Of War Handicap (75) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $6.00) for me here. He looks a lovely type for Sam Kavanagh and showed that he was in for a good prep both in his barrier trial and then first up at Canterbury where he had no luck behind Valcot and arguably should have won the race. He has to step up a fair bit in class and depth here, but I have no doubt he is a Saturday horse.
Big Danger: God’s In Him trialled brilliantly at Flemington before resuming with a strong maiden win at Seymour. He looked in a bit of trouble in the early part of the straight, but when Dwayne Dunn asked for the effort, he really found and was excellent through the line. Bit of a step up here in class, but he is on the limit and has a plum draw.
Roughie: Captain Scott (Best Odds: $41.00) wasn’t too bad I thought in the South Muswellbrook when third to Oh My Papa. He got stuck wide for the entire trip yet was still there at the thick end of the prize. Form has been franked with the runner up winning the Muswellbrook Cup on Tuesday. 1400m on his home track, and from a good draw, could see him get into the first four with some luck.

 

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BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Amovatio

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Brook Road

VALUE: Race Two Number 3 Powerline

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8

Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 15, 16

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful.

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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