Cup week concludes this Saturday with another outstanding program scheduled, with the main race on the card being the $1 Million Group l Emirates Stakes (1600m), with the ‘Lion Of Longford’, The Cleaner, coming back to the mile after running a brave ninth in the Cox Plate. He is the interesting runner, and he will have some fierce opposition, including Hooked and the impressive Contributor.
But the highlight race on the day, and perhaps the entire Spring carnival, is the $1 Million Group Darley Classic (1200m). Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Buffering, Terravista and Famous Seamus…add international star Slade Power and you have one mouth watering race.
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Race One: Racing.com Maribyrnong Plate 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Iceflow (Best Odds: $7.00) produced a really nice jumpout here before making his debut in the Maribyrnong Trial (1000m) and just failing to pick up the impressive Mihalic. Would have gained immense experience from that outing, and like on debut, the advantage of being trained on the track is massive.
Big Danger: Bantam (Best Odds: $2.70) is a Godolphin colt making his debug after a strong trial win back in Sydney at Warwick Farm last month. It’s always a good guide when the stable switches them to the other state, so I’d keep a close eye on this well bred youngster.
Roughie: Prompt Return (Best Odds: $13.00) made his debut over 900m at Bendigo and showed good speed to be up on the pace throughout, but did look in some trouble 300m out before being asked for the big effort by Winks and the horse pulled away late for a good win. Another that is trained on the track and should get a good sit somewhere close from the gate.
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Race Two: SecondBite Plate (90) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Rawnaq (Best Odds: $7.50) has shown he can be a Group l performer in the past, but he really hasn’t gone on with it. in saying that, he was quite impressive late when winning over this distance at Caulfield against a similar field, aided by a brilliant steer from Michael Walker. If you go back to the 2012 Victoria Derby, he arguably should have won that race had it not been for bad luck at the top of the straight. That’s how good he can be, and he is showing signs that he is starting to get to his best form.
Big Danger: Rainbow Storm (Best Odds: $7.50) is starting to become a bit of a pest with the punters given he has been beaten at his past three as a short priced favourite. But he tried his guts out last time in the Horsham Cup (1800m) when a narrow third to Happy As Hell and Stratigraphy. He has a horrible barrier draw, but is trained by the leading man in Melbourne and gets the weight relief, as well as a bigger track, which will help his chances.
Roughie: Motivado (Best Odds: $15.00) resumed in the Seymour Cup (1600m) and really caught the eye with his late finish despite getting held up at certain stages in the straight. He comes back to benchmark company and has since been an impressive trial winner. Hot speed will really help and the riding style of Nick Hall will also be ideal.
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Race Three: Antler Luggage Handicap (96) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to put Black Jet (Best Odds: $11.00) on top. The Queenslander resumed with a cracking third at Doomben, then went to Moonee Valley for a heat of the Subzero Challenge and he was outstanding there against the bias, running a close up fifth and getting held up the final 50m. Interesting to note that connections dodged the Subzero final on Thursday and have instead tackled the harder race here. Good indication where this horse is at IMO.
Big Danger: Our Hand Of Faith (Best Odds: $6.00) was smashed in betting to win the Seymour Cup (1600m), and looked the winner 200m out, but got beaten by a brilliant ride from Tommy Berry on Bel Thor and nailed Our Hand Of Faith on the peg. He hasn’t won for a while, which is the query, but is racing well nonetheless and Brad Rawiller takes the ride, and we know how good he and Weir are going at the moment.
Roughie: Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $3.20) could be on trial for the 2015 Melbourne Cup by running here. He has been talked up as a potential Cup horse, and his racing career so far in Australia hasn’t told me otherwise. He got badly held up last time out, but when clear, he really attacked the line and got up to win. He was placed at stakes level racing anti-clockwise, so no worries there, Ollie rides and the horse is only third up, like the top tip.
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Race Four: Hilton Hotels & Resorts Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m keen on the Adelaide gelding Lord Aspen (Best Odds: $3.80). He has bashed up his rivals in three career runs to date back home, winning each impressively, and definitely deserves a crack in Melbourne. I would have thought he would go straight into the Sandown Guineas next week, but they have instead elected to run here and perhaps back him up. Whatever the situation, he draws perfectly here, reasonably weighted and has dodged the tougher races, so perhaps the fresh legs will come to the fore late.
Big Danger: Husson Eagle (Best Odds: $7.50) ran in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) last week behind Brazen Beau and didn’t disgrace himself at all, running fifth, beaten just over three lengths. Significant drop in class here, stays at the same weight and will only be benefited by the rise to 1400m and getting back to a bending track.
Roughie: Weight relief could see a sneaky run from Jarklin (Best Odds: $151.00). Should have won two back on Cranbourne Cup Day, then went to Mornington and wasn’t suited by the slow tempo and carrying 60kg. Drops 5.5kg here, up in distance, bigger track and a soft draw, where he can sit much closer off a genuine speed. Seen worse outsiders.
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Race Five: Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a really lovely race for Noble Protector (Best Odds: $3.00). There isn’t much of her size wise, but what she lacks in size, she makes up for in quality, as we saw in the David Jones Cup (2000m) when a game second to Contributor, who is a leading contender in two races time. Up to 2600m looks perfect, bigger track, trained here also, plus she is fitter and is on the minimum. I doubt the $3.40 will last long.
Big Danger: A cold ride and some good fortune got Prince Of Penzance (Best Odds: $4.50) home in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). They could have thrown the dice and had a crack at the Cup by winning the Lexus last week, but they have instead run here and taken the identical path to Precedence last year. He won both races, and we saw how well he went in the Cup on Tuesday. Big threat here.
Roughie: Bring Something (Best Odds: $12.00) might not have beaten much at his past two, but he has won, and won with real steel, grit and determination. He last ran in the Bendigo Cup (2400m), and for a few strides, he looked as if he wasn’t going to find the line, but he lifted late and surged to win. I still think he is a big baby, and will be better in six months, but he is in form and will run the distance out with no dramas.
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Race Six: Darley Classic 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.35) could well be at the moment the best sprinter in Australia, and he gets a great chance to prove it here on a track where he seems near unbeatable. He was due to run in the Manikato Stakes, but Team Hawkes decided that there was no need to break something that didn’t need fixing, so they have saved him for this. Sparkled in a recent jumpout at Flemington and I think the $3.50 that was on offer a few weeks ago was a gift. He is a special here.
Big Danger: Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $5.50) may have been helped by a lethal on pace bias in the Manikato, but he was there to be beaten after running a blistering opening half, yet kicked very hard when asked by Froggy Newitt. He is suspended and Chad Schofield jumps in the saddle, and he won on the horse in the Newmarket Handicap here in March when showing an amazing turn of foot. He is not at the level he was in the Autumn, but appears to be going well enough to run fill the quinella spot. I just don’t think he can match it with the top tip.
Roughie: There were many hard luck runs in the Manikato, but the stiffest of the lot was Famous Seamus (Best Odds: $26.00). He was set to be in a midfield spot, then got a nasty check and a few strides later he was a clear last. Tim Clark then rode for luck and just got none of it until it was all over. He has sizzled in jumpouts at Flemington, so I don’t think the track will be an excuse, and his racing pattern will suit here.
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Race Seven: Emirates Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: $8.50 for Leebaz (Best Odds: $8.50) looks a tremendous price. Trialled well, both in public and in jump outs, then resumed in the Moonga Stakes (1400m) on Caulfield Cup Day and had no luck at all when appearing to travel sweetly in the run. He is unbeaten second up, near unbeaten at the mile, draws beautifully, in well at the weights, stable is in form, as is the rider…gee he ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Hucklebuck (Best Odds: $10.00) is an exciting horse from Adelaide who did the job well last Saturday in the final lead up to this race, sitting just off the speed before finding the lead and lifting late to win when challenged. I don’t think he will have an issue running 1600m, but I would like to see him ridden with cover and have something to chase, like we saw first up when he was outstanding.
Roughie: Smokin’ Joey (Best Odds: $21.00) ran an absolute beauty in this race last year behind Boban and appears to be on track to produce another solid run after his effort behind Hucklebuck on Saturday. He did a power of work out wide yet still found the line. Up the mile suits, as does the draw because he’ll get cover and be out of trouble, plus he gets some weight relief. $26 I could entertain.
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Race Eight: Momentum Energy Stakes 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to make a horse at double figures my best bet on the card here, in the shape of Scratchy Bottom (Best Odds: $6.00). The form guide for this Spring, on face value, won’t read well for her, but she has been outstanding at each outing. First up she got badly held up in the Blazer Stakes (1400m) at this track but was very good through the line, then went to the Eliza Park (1600m) on Cox Plate Day and again got held up but surged through the line when clear. Flemington 2000m looks absolutely perfect, gun draw, and last time she ran at 2000m, she was beaten a neck at Group l level by May’s Dream and Star Fashion, and meets the latter horse 2.5kg better off at the weights. Really surprised double figures is on offer for her.
Big Danger: Suavito (Best Odds: $5.00) was due for some good luck to go her way after several luckless runs, and she duly saluted as a heavily backed favourite in the Eliza Park, thanks to an Ollie gem. He got moving on her earlier than normal and she really appreciated that, running through the line powerfully as if 2000m will be ideal. Worked home behind Lucia Valentina in the Vinery Stud in the Autumn; that was her last 2000m run, so I think she will handle it.
Roughie: A mare who is unknown at 2000m is Myamira (Best Odds: $19.00), but gee she was very good late for a $151 chance last week in the Myer Classic (1600m). She really warmed up late and savaged the line under hands and heels. On that, 2000m will be of no issue, and she is drawn the right part of the track, so I could definitely back her each way, and throw her in exotics.
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Race Nine: Emirates Airline Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: This race always produces a decent result at huge odds, and I will go for value here in the shape of Written Intent (Best Odds: $67.00). His two runs this time in have been outstanding without much luck. First up at Ballarat he got caught wide on a hot speed yet ran through the line well, then went to Geelong Cup Day and had absolutely no luck behind Last Sight and arguably should have won had he got clear. Drops to the minimum from the top he carried last start, drawn well, and his lone run at Flemington was during the Winter when a close up sixth to proven Group performer Lonhspresso. $67…hey, why not?
Big Danger: Eclair Big Bang (Best Odds: $4.60) was an impressive first up winner at Gawler, then ran at Caulfield and should have bolted in when third to In Cahoots, but he never really got a clear crack at them until it was all over. Like I said earlier, the Philip Stokes/Dom Tourneur combination have a lethal record when coming to Melbourne, and this horse did win the Guineas Prelude last year, so we know he can be competitive at a high level.
Roughie: Coronation Shallan (Best Odds: $16.00) wasn’t too bad first up behind Griante at Caulfield, then ran last Friday night at the Valley and was good through the line when fourth to Fast ‘N’ Rocking. Her lone run at the Flemington 1400m resulted in a third to Sistine Demon in the Autumn, who at the time was one of the form gallopers in Melbourne. She has fresh legs, should be ready to rumble third up and the stable is having a good little run.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Scratchy Bottom
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Noble Protector
VALUE: Race Nine Number 15 Written Intent
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 10
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 12, 13, 15
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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