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The Autumn Carnival in Melbourne heads to Flemington for the next two weeks, starting off this weekend with Australian Guineas Day. The $500,000 Group l mile feature has attracted a crack bunch of three year olds, highlighted by Adelaide youngster Alpine Eagle, who is on the quick back up after a remarkable win last week in the Autumn Classic (1800m), and will now get the services of champion hoop Douglas Whyte.

 

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Race One (12:40pm) : Festival Of Racing 1000 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Heatherly (Best Odds: $3.50) clearly on top. She last ran in the Blue Diamond Prelude when fifth to Fontiton, and we knew then that, for now, she won’t run beyond 1000m. She jumped well in a jump out last Friday here, ran along in front and won by a space, once again running sub 45 seconds for the 800m, which is low flying. Given her electric natural speed, the 1000m down the straight here should really suit her.
Big Danger: Claudia Jean (Best Odds: $6.50) was a very impressive debut winner here in late December before running in the Magic Millions and working home well when seventh to Le Chef, beaten just over two lengths. Fair drop in class here, back on her home track and is a winner here, plus looked sharp in a recent jump out. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Take Pride (Best Odds: $6.50) is a handy youngster who has performed really well down the straight in the past, including last time out when third to Pasadena Girl in the Talindert Stakes (1100m). The drop back to 1000m looks ideal, and her record down the straight is a definite advantage IMO.

 

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Race Two (1:15pm) : Mrs Mac’s Family Bakery Sprint 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Disappointing size field. In saying that, this just looks the perfect race for Missy Longstocking (Best Odds: $2.40). Her two runs back from a long break have been excellent, starting on Magic Millions Day when an unlucky third to Straturbo before going to Caulfield in the Rubiton Stakes (1100m) and getting stuck wide with no cover yet fighting on well for fourth to Chautauqua. Back to the mares now, small field suits, and she just has loads on these class wise.
Big Danger: Afleet Esprit (Best Odds: $3.80) had an excellent Spring, winning a couple of Stakes races before failing in the Thousand Guineas. She was spelled and resumed a fortnight back in the Kevin Hayes, where she really was just fair behind Sabatini. She is much better than that, and the lack of depth here really gives her a chance to bounce back to winning form, if she produces her best.
Roughie: Written (Best Odds: $8.00) looked to be bolting in the run first up at the Valley, but got stuck up behind runners at a vital stage before Jackie Beriman finally got the gap and the mare burst through to win. She has won here previously and is a second up winner, plus Beriman retains the ride, and she knows the mare very well.

 

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Race Three (1:55pm) : Saintly Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Turfane (Best Odds: $9.00) on top for me. He was a maiden when resuming in the Abell Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley, but he ran an absolute belter when a close up fourth to It Is Written. Third was Fast ‘N’ Rocking and he ran third in the Oakleigh Plate on the weekend. Turfane then dropped back to maiden company and got the easy kill in really dominant fashion on Kilmore Cup Day. He is a Saturday class horse, he is on his home track and still appears to have a stack of upside left.
Big Danger: Big watch on Maastricht (Best Odds: $8.50), who comes back in grade after running in The Vanity (1400m) last time out where she was a ‘Plain Jane’ behind Sweet And Speedy, seemingly having every chance off a nice run. The key here is D Dunn back aboard, and the blinkers going on for the first time. We know the ability is there, and those two key factors can spark her back into winning form.
Roughie: So You Drink (Best Odds: $14.00) will appreciate the weight relief here after carrying 57kg or more at his last four outings. He last ran on February 18 at Sandown and was perhaps ridden a touch too close when fourth to Miniver. He is a get back/run on type that should be suited at Flemington, and the stable are low flying at the moment.

 

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Race Four (2:30pm) : Tab Rewards Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: I think there is a great bet here at odds in the shape of Aeronautical (Best Odds: $8.50). His run wasn’t too bad at all in the C F Orr Stakes (1400m) behind Dissident when beaten just under six lengths. WFA at Group l level isn’t his go, so the drop back to this level looks perfect, he should get the lovely sit off Hard Stride and Decircles, and prove hard to hold out, especially with Douglas Whyte in the saddle.
Big Danger: Akavoroun (Best Odds: $2.70) went enormous first up here over 1200m when fourth to Hard Stride, making up significant ground late. He is unbeaten second up, draws to get the gun run and has abundance of class on his side. He actually looks a great price at around the $3 mark. I was expecting shorter.
Roughie: Tougher Than Ever (Best Odds: $12.00) could well represent Dairy Farmers alongside stablemate Fulgur, but all of his form has been in Sydney. He has been trained in Melbourne this time in, and he looked pretty sharp in a recent jump out here, so a forward showing first up would not surprise me.

 

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Race Five (3:10pm) : Roy Higgins Quality 2600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tuscan Fire (Best Odds: $3.20) was a touch unlucky not to win the Torney Cup. He got badly held up a vital stage in the straight and wasn’t allowed to build up momentum like Taiyoo. I am sure had he got a clear run, he would have given that horse a race. Tuscan Fire runs very well at Flemington, and the extra 100m will pose no worries for him.
Big Danger: Sommernachtstraum (Best Odds: $19.00) has his first run for Robert Kingston after formerly being with Kris Lees. The horse had his last run for Lees under the Moonee Valley lights last time out when a brave third to Duplicity Jones after being forced to make a long searching run a fair way from home. I think the Flemington track will suit him, and Nick Hall is riding in excellent form.
Roughie: Expecting a much better run from Rawnaq (Best Odds: $16.00). He is probably best remembered as the horse who should have won the 2013 Victoria Derby, and it’s fair to say he hasn’t reached those heights ever since. He wasn’t too bad the other day at Sandown, but he importantly gets back to Flemington now, and the last time he ran over a distance on this track was back on Stakes Day, and he produced a cracking run from the back. If he shows any of his old form, he’d be right in this race up to his ears.

 

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Race Six (3:50pm) : Frances Tressday Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $9.00) is a classy mare resuming after a strong Spring, which ended with a narrow second to Suavito in the Matriarch Stakes (2000m) on Stakes Day. That form has seen the winner go on to win a Group l last weekend, and Girl In Flight looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial at Cranbourne behind Lord Of The Sky. Races very well fresh and gets in pretty well at the weights considering her record.
Big Danger: Star Fashion (Best Odds: $7.00) is another mare that is pretty strong when produced fresh. First up last time in she beat Suavito, and we know what she did last Saturday. Record at Flemington doesn’t read well, but she has taken on some classy gallopers when racing here. Should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $19.00) comes back to Melbourne after a two run stint during the Tassie Carnival. She had absolutely no luck two back at Hobart, then she ran in the Vamos Stakes (1400m) and ran a close up third to Vibrant Rouge and Miss Middleton. Her record of two from 30 is horrendous, but she is very honest and won’t be too far away.

 

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Race Seven (4:30pm) : Australian Guineas 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Really keen on Kermadec (Best Odds: $3.60) here. His two runs in Sydney have been outstanding, starting off with a fourth to Scissor Kick in the Eskimo Prince (1200m) before rattling home late to run a close third in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m). The switch to Melbourne, in particular Flemington, looks perfect. He was an impressive winner of the Carbine Club on Derby Day over this track/distance, and he looks to have improved lengths from that. Nash coming over from Honkers to ride is a really positive lead about this horse and his chances, and overall, he is the one to beat clearly IMO.
Big Danger: Wandjina (Best Odds: $7.50) is the obvious threat. On face value, he looked to travel keenly in the CS Hayes (1400m), but Ollie said afterwards he wasn’t pulling as hard as it seemed. Either way, it was a big effort to win given that runner up Disposition clearly headed him in the straight, but the Caulfield Guineas place getter lifted under Ollie to win. That’s the key and main form reference to this race from a Melbourne perspective. Nothing that finished behind Wandjina will turn the tables here, so he does look one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: I don’t think he can win, but Stratum Star (Best Odds: $8.50) will get the beaut run in transit. He had that last time out in the CS Hayes, but he couldn’t quite peg back Wandjina and Disposition. He does get the barrier advantage and should be cherry ripe now third up.

 

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Race Eight (5:10pm) : Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Really good sprint race. I think the old marvel General Truce (Best Odds: $18.00) represents great value. He hasn’t raced since July 19 over this track/distance behind Zamorar, but he looked really sharp in a trial last month at Cranbourne behind Lankan Rupee. He led, was under a big grip from Andrew Mallyon and cantered to the line pretty much for third to Lankan Rupee and A Time For Julia. This looks a lovely resumption race, and I don’t mind the odds on offer for him, especially given his great record fresh and at Flemington.
Big Danger: Big watch on the first up run of Peron (Best Odds: $7.50) for Peter Moody. She is a quality mare who hasn’t been seen since running near last in the 2014 Tatts Tiara (1400m) to Cosmic Endeavour. She is now with Moody, and she has looked very sharp in jump outs and trials, and appears definitely wound up enough to win. Watch market moves.
Roughie: Nordic Empire (Best Odds: $4.80) was enormous in winning first up in a heat of the 55 Second Challenge at the Valley, sitting four wide no cover yet still won, which is near impossible to do on any track, let alone the Valley. Provided that run hasn’t busted him, he should take a power of beating here, because it does look ideal.

 

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Race Nine (5:45pm) : The HKJC Trophy (90) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: What you see is what you get with Phantom Brew (Best Odds: $7.00). He will just roll along in front and give his all, like he has done at his past two starts, both resulting in strong wins with great form franking. Two starts back he Extra Zero here, then went to Caulfield and beat Index Linked. Those two horses ran 1-2 in the Mornington Cup Prelude last weekend at Listed level, so the form reads really well for Phantom Brew.
Big Danger: Carlo Bugatti (Best Odds: $6.00) is the interesting runner. Team Williams runner who contested some classy races when over in Europe, including the King George. Watch market moves with him.
Roughie: The decent float trip and getting away from Sydney could spark improvement from former talented galloper Single (Best Odds: $17.00). who hasn’t really reached the heights he got to back a couple of seasons back. He last ran over 2000m at Rosehill when a battling sixth to in form galloper Centre Pivot. Last time he was at Melbourne he was four lengths of Stipulate and Brambles. That’s good enough to be competitive here.

 

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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Kemadec

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Heatherly

VALUE: Race Four Number 2 Aeronautical

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 11, 12

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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