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Saturday racing in Sydney remains at Rosehill this weekend, and the tease of the Autumn Carnival begins, with two features highlighting the program, the $175,000 Group ll Breeders Classic (1200m) and the $150,000 Group lll Eskimo Prince Stakes (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One (1:05pm) : TAB Place Multi Handicap (70) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: I am going with the Gai Waterhouse trained Kontiki Dane (Best Odds: $17.00) who broke her maiden status in impressive fashion two back at Warwick Farm, sitting up on a strong speed and finding plenty when asked in the straight. She then went to Wyong and attempted to lead all the way but couldn’t withstand the brilliant finishing burst of Jack Strikes Back. That was just her third career start and she was taking on the older horses, so the effort was more than commendable. Back to her own age now, should get a good run on speed and prove hard to run down.
Big Danger: Manoeuvring (Best Odds: $5.00) broke his maiden status in impressive fashion a couple of weeks back at Warwick Farm, coming from off the speed and letting down strongly to win under the urgings of Hugh Bowman. This Tony McEvoy trained gelding appears to have some real upside and he has some excellent form around him. A definite contender.
Roughie: Herne’s Oak (Best Odds: $5.50) was a very impressive maiden winner back in December before stepping straight up to city grade and winning at Warwick Farm on Christmas Eve. Has since been freshened up and trialled really well at Warwick Farm behind Tarangower. He should take some beating.

 

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Race Two (1:45pm) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (95) 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Sam Kavanagh certainly knows when and where to place his runners, and he looks to have again placed Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $1.90) beautifully. There was plenty to like about his win two weeks ago at Randwick, coming from off the speed and letting down strongly to hold on and beat Sasenkile, who came out and won impressively last weekend. Definitely looking for 2000m now and gets a lovely weight drop.
Big Danfer: The tactics of rolling along in front on Koroibete (Best Odds: $5.00) worked a treat, with the former handy three year old showing good fight in the straight to hold off his rivals and grip on victory. He hadn’t really done much since his three year old days prior to that, so the win may have sparked him back into action.
Roughie: Oriental Lady (Best Odds: $8.00) was ridden a treat last time out by Avdulla but was beaten by simply a better stayer on the day in the shape of Danas Best. She ran a close second to Midsummer Sun in the Gosford Cup prior over 2100m, and I think that sort of distance at around 2000m is ideal, not 2400m. Hard to beat here.

 

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Race Three (2:20pm) : TAB.com.au Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: If you backed Cleansing Ale (Best Odds: $8.00) first up at Randwick, it was very hard to watch, with James McDonald not really getting clear at any stage in the straight and pretty much going to the line under a hold. That was after a really good trial win, so she has come back, seemingly, in great order, and she strikes a lovely race here. Very keen on her.
Big Danger: Pajaro (Best Odds: $2.90) was well backed to win first up at Randwick and produced one of the runs of the meeting when coming from a long way back to run second to Coolring, who has franked the form by winning again last weekend. He’ll only benefit from added fitness and a distance increase and does loom as the main threat.
Roughie: Chestnut Road (Best Odds: $8.00) ran third in the Randwick race Cleansing Ale had no luck in and he worked home well from the back to run third, beaten just over a length by Zin Zan Eddie. He did loom to win about 250m from home, but just grinded late, so 1500m is a query, but he gets a soft barrier draw and Tommy sticks.

 

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Race Four (2:55pm) : Inglis Classic 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Very tricky race to sort out, with interstate form clashing with local form. I’m going with the Scone visitor Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $3.40), who won the first leg of this series in Sydney back in December when coming from well back to win the Inglis Nursery. Hasn’t been seen since, but from all reports, he is working very well and is coming along beautifully for this and the Slipper.
Big Danger: I tipped Serenade (Best Odds: $2.60) on debut at Gosford, and the filly did nothing. She then stepped up in class and ran at Canterbury on Australia Day and spanked them, leading all the way and won by five. There doesn’t seem to be much speed around her barrier wise, so I think Schofield should take full advantage and roll along in front and give them something to chase, and the field she beat at Canterbury did have some depth to it.
Roughie: Queensland visitor Lady Sniper (Best Odds: $14.00) had two runs during the Spring and performed well behind a couple of very good youngsters in Madotti and Flamenco Girl before spelling, winning a trial and then bolting in at Beaudesert, running very good time compared to the older horses on the same program. She won’t be too far away from the draw and does have the hard race day fitness and experience.

 

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Race Five (3:35pm) : Eskimo Prince Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going to put Kermadec (Best Odds: $7.50) on top. He was very impressive in his opening prep during the Spring, winning on debut at Warwick Farm before a narrow defeat at Randwick, then going to Flemington and beating a strong field in the Carbine Club. His latest trial came at Warwick Farm and he made up very good ground late under no pressure. He looks to have taken the next step and is the clear horse to beat IMO.

Big Danger: Delectation (Best Odds: $4.20) was a real tease in the Spring, constantly running well without winning, but he did end his Spring prep with a slashing second to stablemate Brazen Beau in the Group l Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) on Derby Day. His two trials leading up to his return to racing have been fantastic, and he has home track advantage, plus impressive stats at the track/distance and when resuming.
Roughie: Diamon Valores (Best Odds: $9.00) is a good type of gelding that is heading down the Classic path, but he showed good promise during the Spring, with wins over 1250m and 1550m before eventually rising to 1800m and running a game second to Sweynesse, who then went on to place at Group l level and be unlucky in a Cox Plate. Trial was good and the stable is in form.

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Race Six (4:15pm) : NSW Thoroughbred Breeders Classic 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: The weight scale just clearly puts Catkins (Best Odds: $1.95) on top. She won first up in the Spring here in the Sheraco, then couldn’t quite crack it for a win in three subsequent runs, the last of those being a close third in the Myer Classic to Bonaria. Her latest trial was on a bog surface at Warwick Farm and it was good without being great. She has a near perfect record first up, and she absolutely loves Rosehill.
Big Danger: Lilliburlero (Best Odds: $14.00) produced an outstanding run over 1100m here in the Starlight back in November when coming from near last to run fifth to Our Boy Malachi, beaten just over four lengths on a leader biased track. Has been freshened up and trialled recently at Randwick where she just went there, but her stats first up, at 1200m and at the track are very encouraging.
Roughie: Role Model (Best Odds: $13.00) made the ‘Follow and Forget’ file after trialling well on a couple of occasions leading up to her first up run at Randwick, but was unwanted in betting, drifting to $12 from $6. I thought her effort to run second to Mihiri was outstanding given she carried 59.5kg, led at a good speed (first 600m in 34.72), beat the other leader off but was a sitting shot for the Team Hawkes runner. Query is that she may race flat second up after a long lay off, but the trials and first up run indicate that she has come back in good order and that she’ll be competitive at this level and a touch higher for the campaign.

 

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Race Seven (4:55pm) : Hong Kong Racehorse Owners Association Trophy (87) 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Woodbine (Best Odds: $3.00) is the class horse and does appear to be one of the hardest to beat off the back of a couple of very impressive barrier trials, starting off with a second to Sarajevo and then a slick win. He has an excellent record at the track, at 1200m and first up, plus this is a big drop in grade.
Big Danger: It’s been a while since Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $13.00) has raced at Randwick, but the last run here saw him finish less than two lengths from Territory. He ran on hard a couple of weeks back at Randwick when fifth to Tahitian Black, beaten two lengths. His record there is horrible, but he runs much better here, so the slight drop in class and a return to Rosehill could spark improvement.
Roughie: Lucky Sound (Best Odds: $26.00) is an interesting runner for Tony Crane. He has obviously been a travel companion for the two year old in the Inglis Classic, but his form suggests he could run a cheeky race here. He did very well to win last time out on a bog Doomben track. His record suggests he is versatile and Larry Cassidy rides the horse better than anyone. Drawn to get a cheap run and has fitness on his side.

 

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Race Eight (5:35pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: I’m quite keen here on Diametric (Best Odds: $3.10) who showed his true colours with a strong win, albeit on protest, over the Randwick mile over stablemate The Alfonso. He has since been to the trials, and went to Warwick Farm, and despite his poor wet track record, he handled the heavy 10 with absolute ease when third to Tarangower. I see he is nominated for the Australian Cup, so if he is to head down that path, you’d think he’d have to take care of these, and I am confident he can.
Big Danger: Burbero (Best Odds: $6.50) was aided by a good speed and a lovely ride from Brodie Loy to win over the Randwick mile on a firm 2 surface, narrowly beating home You’ll Never. I think the mile is his limit, so dropping back to 1500m looks perfect, he loves Rosehill and he handles all conditions.
Roughie: Mighty Lucky (Best Odds: $14.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break, both at Stakes level. He resumed in the Takeover Target and was wide no cover throughout when a 1.6L sixth to Ball Of Muscle, then he went to Randwick for the Carrington and worked home well behind Ninth Legion when fourth. The last time he was in an Open Handicap at Rosehill he was a neck away from Entirely Platinum, a subsequent Group l performer. Hard to beat here IMO.

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BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Centre Pivot

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Diametric

VALUE: Race One Number 7 Kontiki Dane

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1, 5, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10

Leg Four: 5, 6, 9, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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