“The race that stops a nation”
Melbourne Cup Day is the one race day on the calendar where all Australians focus on horse racing and a have a flutter on Australian racings greatest prize, the $6.2 Million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m)
Japanese stayer and Caulfield Cup champ Admire Rakti holds firm favouritism ahead of German stayer Protectionist, local hope Lucia Valentina and Cox Plate runner Fawkner.
Add nine other strong races and you have one corker of an afternoon on the punt!
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Race One (10:30am): Emirates Airline Plate 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mihalic (Best Odds: $4.40) was an impressive debut winner down the Flemington straight, coming from off the speed and letting down strongly to safely hold her rivals at bay. She did trial very well down the straight prior, and given she has race experience, especially here, she should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Comprende (Best Odds: $5.50) debuts for the Phillip Stokes/Dom Tourneur combination after a very impressive trial win back home at Morphettville, winning by a space and running really good time. Stokes could have found a race back home, but has instead elected to run here, telling me must rate this filly highly.
Roughie: Lady Esprit (Best Odds: $5.50) trialled quite nicely last week at Cranbourne when second to Fontiton, who then came out and bolted in on Cox Plate Day. Lady Esprit sat back in the trial and made up good ground late without really being pressured, so she looks to have her fair share of talent and can run well here on debut.
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Race Two (11:10am): TAB.com.au Trophy 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: Khutulun (Best Odds: $11.00) has been very good in three runs back from a break. First up she was too good at Sportingbet Park over 1300m, then had absolutely no luck on Cranbourne Cup day before proving too good for her rivals at Ballarat. She is a proven city performer and the 1700m at Flemington looks ideal. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $4.20) is a Group winner who worked home well last time out in the Tristarc Stakes (1400m), running sixth to Sweet Idea after getting a fair way back in the run. The race wasn’t run to suit her given that the winner had an absolute picnic in front, and with Amanpour engaged, she will make it a truly run race, which should suit Girl In Flight.
Roughie: Amanpour (Best Odds: $4.60) has followed on from her strong Autumn with two excel em performances this time in. First up she was no match for Bonsai, then went to Kensington and led all the way, albeit there was bias towards leaders that afternoon. She should roll forward from the draw and take some beating given she will only improve with distance increase.
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Race Three (11:50am): Visit Victoria Plate (96) 2800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to put Grand Marshall (Best Odds: $6.00) on top. He only has the one speed, and he showed that a couple of weeks back at Rosehill when he slogged it out best to win over 2000m, getting lifted over the line by Jim Cassidy. 2800m looks perfect, as does the spacious surroundings of Flemington.
Big Danger: Order Of The Sun (Best Odds: $3.40) ran along at a strong tempo last week in the Bendigo Cup (2400m) and looked a beaten horse on the turn, but kept finding under riding on the worst part of the track when third Bring Something. He has won over this track/distance, back on ANZAC Day when bolting in by seven lengths in the St Leger, with Chad Schofield in the saddle, who rides the horse here. He will run along in front and give a great sight.
Roughie: Renew (Best Odds: $26.00) wasn’t too bad in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) despite running third last. He was clearly outclassed but didn’t disgrace himself. This is a mammoth drop in grade, and he will the rise in distance. He is a dour type who will run all day, unlike some engaged here.
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Race Four (12:30pm): Lavazza Short Black Handocap (90) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: The Quarterback (Best Odds: $3.30) produced a barnstorming finish to win last time out on Seymour Cup Day when coming from behind the speed and showing his sparkling turn of foot to win and win with plenty in reserve. He will have no problem running 1400m and has a very good record at the track.
Big Danger: Taiyoo (Best Odds: $16.00) ran first up behind The Quarterback at Seymour and wasn’t too bad I thought when seventh to the top tip, beaten over four lengths. Yet to race at Flemington, but does have a really good second up record and is drawn beautifully for a strong heavyweight rider in Jamie Mott.
Roughie: Double Dee (Best Odds: $21.00) is the older sister of 2013 Cox Plate winner Shamus Award, and she herself is building up a nice little record. Forget she went around last time out in the Black Pearl (1200m) on Geelong Cup Day. She had no luck, getting caught up behind runners and only got warm very late. Up to 1400m suits, as does the spacious surroundings of Flemington. Looks great value for mine.
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Race Five (1:15pm) : Schweppes #Flemingtonfling 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: The Melbourne Cup Carnival always produces a good story from the bush and I reckon at some value Recalculate (Best Odds: $41.00) could be that story. Trainer Elizabeth Hunt, from Moe, put her horse in a maiden on Cup day in her home town after a good trial at Cranbourne and the horse bolted in for comeback rider Jamie Bayliss, the father of apprentices Jake and Regan. The horse that beat him in the trial, Toothless, runs here and I am more than certain that he can turn the tables. In terms of weights, he isn’t well in, but the win was very impressive and he is drawn to get a nice sit off the speed.
Big Danger: I was confident about Law (Best Odds: $4.40) winning at the Valley, and he really should have won, but didn’t get the split at the right time of the race and didn’t get a chance to build up momentum unlike the winner, Galaxy Pegasus. Gets in so well at the weights I feel, and should prove extremely hard to beat. Problem with him is that he hasn’t won since February when beating a field of four.
Roughie: Nightcraft (Best Odds: $51.00) resumes here for Robbie Griffths. He had two runs in the Winter, resulting in a fourth at Donald and a Geelong Synthetic maiden win. Form around him doesn’t read that great, but he looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial at Cranbourne, running near equal time to Ms Mazetti, who is at the top of the betting, while this horse is at double figures. Definitely worth something each-way and in exotics.
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Race Six (2:00pm) : Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: There is plenty to like about the way Wine Tales (Best Odds: $2.90) goes about it. She relaxes off the pace, peels out and finds the line, and more often than not, she’ll greet the judge first, like last start at Rosehill when beautifully ridden by Tim Clark, cutting back to the rail and unleashing a powerful closing split. Clearly the best filly in the race and meets them on level weights. I think $2.70 is a steal.
Big Danger: 1400m at Flemington should really suit the Queensland filly Hijack Hussy (Best Odds: $13.00). Her three runs this time in have all been back home, all of which on tight turning tracks. She stormed home to win last time out against the boys at the Gold Coast, and I think the long straight will be ideal for her racing pattern. $13 looks the wrong price.
Roughie: Cathy’s Mark (Best Odds: $26.00) produced a brilliant finishing burst to break her maiden status at Seymour, then was unlucky not to win at the Valley before pulling up with the thumps at Caulfield when midfield to Bondeiger. That form does read very well, and I think back to 1400m on her home track should spark improvement and she looks a great outside chance.
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Race Seven (3:00pm) : Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $7.50) looks very hard to beat IMO. She was stunning when resuming with a win in the Tramway Handicap (1400m), then had good closing splits in the George Main Stakes (1600m) behind Sacred Falls before being a brilliant winner of the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) then was a narrow third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). She will be much better at Flemington, racing as if the 3200m suits, and if any rain comes, she will really have the advantage over Admire Rakti.
Big Danger: I took Admire Rakti (Best Odds: $5.00) on in the Caulfield Cup and was left shouting scrambled eggs after he scored a fabulous win, coming from near last and scouting very wide to nail Rising Romance in the last few strides. Shot to clear favourtism for the race, but from a punting perspective, he does seem a tad short at $4, but is the horse to beat. Despite the lack of star power and quality in this race, there is history and it says he will do it tough. Only four seven year olds have won the race in the past 30 years, no horse has done the Cups double in over a decade, only one horse has carried 58kg or more to win the race in the last three decades, and the Caulfield Cup hasn’t produced the Melbourne Cup winner Delta Blues in 2006, plus he has failed twice at the two miles. Plenty is against him, but he has to be hugely respected on his triumph last time out.
Roughie: Opinion (Best Odds: $67.00) is my best roughie for the Cup. All five of his runs this time in have been very good, in particular two back in the Metropolitan when narrowly beaten by his stablemate Junoob. He then went to the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) and had no hope with the way the race was run. The leaders crawled in front and he was out the back. He couldn’t sprint, but he was good through the line. Two miles at Flemington looks perfect, and any rain will improve his chances big time.
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Race Eight (3:55pm): James Boags Premium Stakes 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really tough race to sort out. I’ll put Sysmo (Best Odds: $8.50) on top. His two runs back from a spell have been excellent. First up he closed off well in a leader dominated race behind Aomen before going to the Sale Cup (1600m) and having absolutely no luck late when a narrow fifth to Sonntag. Up to 1800m and back to a bigger track suits, he is on the limit and Williams rides. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Forgive and forget Vilanova (Best Odds: $12.00) for his David Jones Cup (2000m) failure. He pulled up lame afterwards and the race wasn’t really run to suit. He got back and the race was won by those near the speed, plus he copped a nasty bump on the turn. He can hard to follow yes, but so can a majority of these.
Roughie: Zabisco (Best Odds: $13.00) had his first start for Darren Weir in the Seymour Cup (1600m) and I thought he was fantastic there, making up a stack of ground out wide when fourth to Bel Thor. Zabisco is the clear horse to follow from that race IMO, and the distance rise, as well as added fitness, should only be beneficial.
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Race Nine (4:35pm): MSS Security Sprint 1200m: Form Guide
Back Mer: Target In Sight (Best Odds: $4.60) was a strong winner of the Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m) on Sir Rupert Clarke Day at Caulfield, sitting wide with cover before letting down strongly to win. Horse that ran second there, In Cahoots, has since won, so the form stacks up well, plus here he is drawn the right part of the track and is only a half kilo over the minimum. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Iconic (Best Odds: $8.00) was luckless in the Group l Manikato Stakes (1200), like almost every other runner in the field. He got back and looked a chance on the turn, but never really got a clear crack at them and went to the line under no real pressure. Massive drop in grade here and should prove a serious threat.
Roughie: Watermans Bay (Best Odds: $21.00) made his Melbourne debut for Mark Kavanagh in the Testa Rossa behind Target In Sight, and I thought he was good there without much luck, then ran again at stakes level and was caught wide the whole way when a close up sixth to In Cahoots. He meets Target In Sight 2kg better off at the weights here from the Testa Rossa and is on his home track, so at $19, he could be worth a dabble each way.
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Race Ten (5:15pm) : HKJC Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for more value, this time in the shape of Vibrant Rouge (Best Odds: $26.00). I have backed her in her two runs this time in, and I don’t want to drop off. First up she worked home strongly out wide at Benalla before having no luck at all in the Black Pearl (1200m) behind River Delta, getting badly held up behind runners before eventually getting clear and savaging the line. The form guide will read 10th of 15, but it was much better than that. Drawn to get a soft trip here, is a winner at Flemington, and looks overs at $26.
Big Danger: Former Perth mare Rose Of Choice (Best Odds: $4.00) made her Sydney debut for Team Snowden in the Nivison (1200m) after a couple of pleasing barrier trials, and despite being caught wide with no cover on the speed, she was still there with 50m to go, but fitness just gave way late and was nailed on the line by a Group l place getter in Avoid Lightning. Barrier one, Cassidy aboard and was a very impressive second up winner at Stakes level last time in.
Roughie: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $26.00). She is a beauty who always runs a good race. Two back she ran a close third at Caulfield to Star Fashion and Suavito, both Group l performers. Nadeem Lass went to the Black Pearl (1200m) on Geelong Cup Day and ran home hard along the rail when third to River Delta. Up to 1400m looks ideal and from gate 10, she should get lovely cover midfield and unleash late, and at $26, I reckon she is a great each way bet.
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BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 The Quarterback
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Wine Tails
VALUE: Race Seven Number 20 Opinion
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 12, 20, 22, 24
Leg Two: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 9, 10, 11, 16, 18
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8, 16
$50 Investment = 2.55% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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