Saturday racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this weekend, and the tease of the Autumn Carnival begins, with three features highlighting the program, the $200,000 Group ll Expressway Stakes (1200m) and a couple of $150,000 Group lll events for the babies, the Widden Stakes (1100m) and the Canonbury Stakes (1100m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. The past 24 hours has seen some really warm weather in Sydney, so we may get an upgrade or two as the day progresses.
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Race One: Canonbury Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Just on class, I’ll put Vancouver (Best Odds: $3.80) on top. He was very impressive when winning the Breeders Plate on debut at Randwick last year, beating the blueblood and the more fancied Sooboog. If you look at that alone, you’d say he wins this and wins comfortably. I wasn’t impressed by the barrier trial when fourth to the highly impressive unraced Godolphin runner Ghisoni, but the leader and stablemate Ulster did run along in front, so perhaps he needed the hit out. Cautiously putting Vancouver in as the one to beat, but the trial has hindered the confidence.
Big Danger: Charamel (Best Odds: $6.50) won a barrier trial impressively on January 3 at Rosehill, then went back there for his second and latest trial, where he made up good ground on the bog track, running third to Outreach and Mawahibb. I think he has that pair covered, and this Godolphin juggernaut just keeps rolling on. No reason why it can’t here.
Roughie: Mahawibb (Best Odds: $4.20) did win a trial in good style back in September, but was tipped out by the stable. He has come back and ran second to Outreach in that barrier trial mentioned above. He ran well there, but didn’t look 100% happy in the going, so I think a firmer surface would help his winning claims; just hopefully mother nature is on his side.
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Race Two: TAB Rewards Handicap (90) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Countryman (Best Odds: $3.80) ran well here first up behind Haussmann, then was freshened up, beat home subsequent city runner up and stablemate Role Model in a trial, then was crunched in betting at Warwick Farm and aided by a ground saving steer from Thomas Huet, the gelding proved too good for his rivals. Comes back to Saturday company now, and finds a tough race, but he does map very well and has the fitness edge.
Big Danger: Coolring (Best Odds: $3.50) has been given absolute peach steers by Hugh Bowman to win his past two starts, starting off with a good win at Canterbury over subsequent winner Snippets Land before going to Randwick and taking care of a quality field, including Group performer Marianne. He has proven he can lead or take a sit, so it won’t matter where he is in the run. He is in winning form and is fit.
Roughie: Timeless Prince (Best Odds: $11.00) is on the quick back up after making up good ground last Saturday at Randwick when sixth to Zin Zan Eddie, beaten just over two lengths. His last two runs at Rosehill have been behind subsequent winners Red Excitement and Centre Pivot. Pretty good form for this.
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Race Three: Schweppes Handicap (80) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: There is nothing wrong with the winning form of Palazzo Pubblico (Best Odds: $4.60). She has won three from three this time in, and all of which have been impressive, in particular her latest win, which came at Randwick, where she sat on speed and showed a nice turn of foot when asked to go and held her rivals at bay. She is on the minimum here and does map really well here drawing close to Mardi.
Big Danger: Mardi (Best Odds: $2.40) was beaten as a heavily backed hot pot at Randwick last time out, with all riders being caught out by the midrace move of Josh Parr on Nisroc, who pinched it after taking off 700m out. To her credit, Mardi did stick on really well and she gets a 3kg weight pull on Nisroc, plus she looks well suited speed map wise.
Roughie: Adorabeel (Best Odds: $5.50) has had two runs for Joe Pride and she has been pretty good in each, starting off with a sixth to Mardi at Rosehill before making up ground late to run third to Nisroc and Mardi. Meets Mardi worse off at the weights despite getting beat by her, but Adorabeel does have upside left and Blake Shinn takes over.
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Race Four: Widden Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the debut win of Guilietta (Best Odds: $3.20) here on January 3, showing dazzling early speed to lead throughout, and run decent time. I’m Not Sure has franked that form by running well since on a couple of occasions, while the best backed runner from the race, Hardline, who ran midfield, came out and beat NZ’s best in the Karaka Millions last Sunday. Before that she bolted in a trial on a soft track, so the conditions here won’t be an issue, and she makes her own luck, plus does have improvement.
Big Danger: Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $7.00) is a regally bred first starter for Team Hawkes who cost $1 Million at the sales. She looked very impressive in a trial win back in September, then was spelled. She trialled recently on this track and worked to the line strongly late. Interesting to see that D Dunn has come to ride with McDonald walking away from the stable. Big watch.
Roughie: Fireworks (Best Odds: $5.00) stuck on really well on debut at Gosford when second to New Wings, then went to Randwick and just completely bungled the start yet still motored home to run third to Holler, beaten two lengths. She was backed on that occasion, and she backed it up with a mighty run, so I am sure she can measure up here; she just needs to improve her racing manners.
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Race Five: TAB Place Multi Handicap (72) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card, perhaps even Australia, courtesy of Sarajevo (Best Odds: $2.40), who is a potential star, but he hasn’t quite put it together on race day. All three runs in the Spring were outstanding, starting off in the Rosebud, then the Run To The Rose before a game sixth in the Golden Rose to Hallowed Crown. Two trials leading up to this have been sharp, and he did handle the wet track okay in the Run To The Rose. If he handles the wet track, he’ll beat these, and comfortably.
Big Danger: Zestful (Best Odds: $4.20) scored a brilliant debut win at Canterbury for Sam Kavanagh, getting a nice run off the speed and then showing a sharp turn of foot when asked in the straight to win and win impressively. Form from that race hasn’t been franked with the runner up performing poorly on Friday at Warwick Farm, but on face value, the win was good, and the stable is low flying.
Roughie: Mr Bogart (Best Odds: $8.00) started prohibitive odds first up at Kembla and justified the short quote with a comfortable two length win, running really smart time without being fully extended. Blake Shinn gets aboard, drawn well and his lone wet track run was on debut in the Skyline when second to Valentia. Hard to beat with the fitness edge.
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Race Six: Expressway Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Doesn’t seem to be much early speed here in the Expressway, so with that being the case, I am going to put the rock hard fit Driefontein (Best Odds: $8.50) on top. She has been enormous in two runs back from the Spring, starting off with a sixth in the Canterbury Classic to Barbed and then a close up fourth to stablemate Spurtonic, and both occasions she was caught wide with no cover. She should ping straight to the front here, dictate and take a power of beating against these, with most of them having bigger fish to fry.
Big Danger: The likelihood of a rain affected track brings Weary (Best Odds: $5.50) right into the mix here. His form around this time last year was excellent, with his Autumn ending with placings in both the Doncaster and All Aged. Had three runs during the Spring and simply wasn’t right, but a recent barrier trial here indicates he has come back in much better order. Last time first up he was 1.5L off Sweet Idea in the Missile. Home track, soft ground and an easier race should see him prove very hard to hold out.
Roughie: Great to see Beaten Up (Best Odds: $51.00) back after an 18 month break. He hasn’t been seen since running a game second to Hawkspur in the Chelmsford Stakes back in 2013. His first trial leading up to his return to racing was good, but his second and latest trial, on this track, was outstanding behind Caped Crusader and Cosmic Endeavour. I expect him to run a ripping race here fresh
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Race Seven: TAB.com.au Handicap (85) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Georgey Aeroplane (Best Odds: $2.20) to bounce back to the winners list after a really good effort off a freshen up at Randwick, attempting to chase down Koroibete and running that horse to within two lengths, with Casino Dancer, a stakes performer, splitting the pair. Back to his home track where is three from four, loves the sting out of the ground and is fitter. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Sasenkile (Best Odds: $4.40) is on the quick back up after racing last weekend at Randwick where he ran a close second to the low flying Centre Pivot, beaten about 3/4. The winning strike rate is a concern, but he is clearly knocking on the door, and taking away the top tip, it’s a pretty thin race, so if the fav is off his game, this is one of a couple who are there to pounce.
Roughie: Expecting a much better run from Gosh (Best Odds: $8.50), who made up late ground when sixth to Diametric at Randwick, beaten just over three lengths. She should take great benefit from that outing, and will appreciate the give in the ground.
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Race Eight: Bob Rowles Tribute Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide
Big Danger: Alias (Best Odds: $3.80) is unbeaten on wet ground, but he didn’t need any give in it to win first up at Canterbury, charging home late from a midfield spot. He will improve many lengths with the give in the ground here, added fitness, barrier one and J McDonald steering.
Big Danger: Lorna May (Best Odds: $7.50) looked good overs when the markets first went up for this race, and she has rightfully been supported. Her Spring prep, early on, was excellent, with seconds behind Rock Sturdy and Suavito, both Group l performers, before failing twice in Stakes grade behind Commaning Jewel and Arabian Gold. Massive drop in class and is only 0.5kg over the minimum. Massive threat.
Roughie: It’s been a while since Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $14.00) has struck a wet track, and his record with give in the ground is handy. He ran on hard late last weekend at Randwick when fifth to Tahitian Black, beaten two lengths. His record there is horrible, but he runs much better here, so the slight drop in class and a wet track could spark improvement.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Sarajevo
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Georgey Aeroplane
VALUE: Race Six Number 10 Driefontein
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 10, 11
Leg Three: 6
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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