Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:48pm) : The Bottle-O Handicap 2200m: Form Guide
Back Me: This really looks Kayper‘s (Best Odds: $1.95) race to lose. He has worked home strongly to a close second to Shotover River at his past two starts, and he was closing off well last start. No Shotover River here, and despite rising in weight, he just really looks the horse to beat.
Big Danger: The up and comer is the Toowoomba visitor, Flying Lucky (Best Odds: $8.50). He has won his last three starts in good style, and he was given an absolute peach from Matty Powell to get the job done last time out on his home track over 1800m. Little query on him running 2200m, but he is the form runner and the one with upside.
Roughie: A horse that could improve here at odds is Canny Ballad (Best Odds: $12.00), who comes to Brisbane after racing in Sydney. He has been clearly outclassed there, but he has contested some strong races in the past. This is a very thin race compared to what he has faced in recent times, so he is a definite winning threat for sure.
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Race Two (1:23pm) : Commercial Hotel Nambour Handicap (1MW) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen here on Alpen Rose (Best Odds: $5.50). This Kris Lees trained mare worked home strongly here a couple of weeks back when fourth to Epsilon. Draws well here, Colless on board…looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Pandora Charm (Best Odds: $7.50) attempted to lead all the way here a fortnight back and looked home with about 150m to go, but was grabbed in the last few strides. Looks a tad easier here, and despite rising in weight, she should prove tough to run down.
Roughie: Queen Of Georgia (Best Odds: $12.00) is a talented mare for Stuart Kendrick who rises in grade after running well last time out on her home track in an easier race when sitting on speed and fighting on when second to Conquer. Harder here, but gets weight relief and is in form.
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Race Three (2:00pm) : Beach House Bar & Grill Handicap (Class 6) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’s hard to tip against Beckham (Best Odds: $3.20). The former kiwi has had three runs on Aussie soil, starting off with a solid fourth during the Grafton Cup Carnival before winning his next two starts, the latest coming at the Sunny Coast. Toughest test to date, but he looks well above average.
Big Danger: Right To Roam (Best Odds: $5.50) has gained a new lease on life since joining the Stephen Lee stable, and there was plenty to like about his effort to win last start at Ipswich, charging home from the back to win. Harder here, but senior rider aboard and he strikes a winnable race.
Roughie: Cosmonaut (Best Odds: $21.00) resumes here for Brian Smith after a solid Summer/Autumn prep, which ended with a fair seventh on Toowoomba Cup Day. This is short of his best, but he can run well fresh and is s must for exotics.
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Race Four (2:38pm) : Hervey Bay Hotel & Resort Handicap (Class 6) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Max It Out (Best Odds: $4.60) comes to town after beating up her rivals last time out at Ipswich, leading all the way and winning with a fair bit of ease. Harder here, but she draws a gate where she can use her early speed and looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: More For Me (Best Odds: $4.20) also comes through the Epsilon race, and she was probably the best of the beaten brigade. She got a long way back and worked home very strongly to finish just over two lengths from the winner. Hasn’t won for a long time, but she gets her chance here IMO.
Roughie: Dysfunction (Best Odds: $16.00) resumed over 1110m a couple of weeks back and worked home well without threatening when eighth to Epsilon. Fitter here, draws an inside gate and is one that can sharply improve here.
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Race Five (3:17pm) : Madame Wu Handicap (Class 6) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Harada Bay (Best Odds: $4.20) for me here. He is on the seven day back up after racing over 1350m here last Saturday in an Open Handicap when working home strongly from the back to finish fourth to Cum Dividend, beaten just over a length. Drops big time in class here, and despite drawing wide, he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: L’Entrecote (Best Odds: $4.20) is a very frustrating galloper to follow, but gee he gets a great chance to get the job done here. He worked home strongly a month back when a close up third to Martilago before running here two weeks ago and again got back and ran on when fourth to Revitalise. He is finding it hard to win, but this is his best chance.
Roughie: Quick Snitzel (Best Odds: $4.50) has had two runs for Robert Heathcoate and he has run fourth on both occasions, each of which have been pretty good efforts, including last start when fourth to Stakes winner Worthy Cause. He should be ready to show his best third up from a break, and if he produced his best here, he’d do a number on these.
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Race Six (3:57pm) : Hotel Beach House Handicap 1110m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hard to go past Architect (Best Odds: $3.20) here. He was given a beaut steer from Jeff Lloyd to win first up, sitting off a hot speed before peeling out and letting down powerfully. He should only improve with that run under the belt and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Didntcostalot (Best Odds: $9.00) made his Brisbane debut for Tony Gollan in the race mentioned above, and he was pretty brave in defeat considering he copped serious pressure on speed and had every right to drop out, but he touched it out very strongly to run second. He should take good improvement off that and looks a threat.
Roughie: The improver here at odds is the Kris Lees trained Terra Amata (Best Odds: $12.00), who has been poor in two runs this time in, but last start she ran behind Fell Swoop, and that horse is a future Stakes horse. Draws gate one here and only carries 52kg after the claim for Serg Lisnyy.
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Race Seven (4:37pm) : Rawgroup Hospitality Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: My Girl Hayley (Best Odds: $2.35) debuted over 1000m at the Sunny Coast on August 5 and despite the rider dropping the whip at the 300m mark, the Tony Gollan trained galloper proved far too good for her rivals and won comfortably, running solid time compared to other 1000m races run that same afternoon. Senior rider goes on, draws well and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Big watch here on I’m Belucci (Best Odds: $8.50), who resumes here for Desleigh Forster. The colt has had one start, back in January when working home strongly to run a close second to Craiglea Wandoo, who has gone on to win a couple of races and performed well in town. I’m Belucci is nominated for the Caulfield Guineas/Classic as well as the Spring Champion, so the stable must rate him highly. Watch market moves.
Roughie: Grecian Summer (Best Odds: $10.00) has had two runs to date, both over 1200m. She got the job done on debut at the Sunny Coast before going to the Gold Coast and fighting on hard when on speed but was grabbed right on the peg by handy galloper Innocent. Harder here, but she has shown good ability in both starts, and she does seem to do everything right.
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Race Eight (5:13pm) : The Duporth Tavern Handicap (1MW) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mana Manu (Best Odds: $5.50) for me here. He worked home well when resuming here a fortnight back near the inside when third to impressive winner Treatmelikealady, who will go around earlier in the day as a leading chance in an Open Handicap. Looks no harder here, Hammersley sticks and draws well.
Big Danger: Had the Allan Denham trained Aroused (Best Odds: $7.50) drew a gate, he’d be a good thing here I think. His win in the Daniel Baker Sprint at Coffs Harbour was very dominant, beating home a much stronger field than what he faces here. Gets in well at the weights after the claim for Serg Lisnyy, and yeah, had it not been for the gate, he’d be on top, but despite that, he is still a leading chance.
Roughie: Jefferson Park (Best Odds: $9.00) did a power of work when sitting on speed in an Open Handicap a couple of weeks back and felt the pinch late when seventh to The Storeman. Much easier here, draws well and Brad Stewart is riding in super form at the moment. He is a definite improver here at odds.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Architect
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Beckham
VALUE: Race Two Number 7 Alpen Rose
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Leg Three: 6, 7, 8, 9, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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