Group l racing kicks off for the new season this Saturday at Caulfield with the $400,000 Memsie Stakes (1400m) featuring a star studded line up. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:25pm) : Cape Grim Beef Plate 1400m:
Back Me: Danestroem (Best Odds: $3.60) returns to Victoria after a run at Morphettville back in May when running a disappointing tenth to Hazard, who franked the form by winning the Dane Ripper and then running well in the Group l Tatts Tiara. Danestroem hasn’t won for a long time, but this is one of the easiest race she has contested in a while, so on her best form, she’d go close to winning this, plus she looked sharp in a recent Cranbourne trial.
Big Danger: Samartested (Best Odds: $4.80) resumed at Sandown a couple of weeks back and was very good in defeat I thought when running midfield to Diamond Valores after sitting four wide no cover for the entire trip. Draws much better here and senior rider aboard.
Roughie: Mossbeat (Best Odds: $12.00) is a bit of a non winner, but she tries her heart out every start, like she did last time out at Sandown when a close up third to Redasun. Draws directly inside her, so Dunn should get the drag up behind Redasun and perhaps have the last crack.
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Race Two (12:55pm) : Montague Tree Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: Alaskan Rose (Best Odds: $2.10) looks the way to go here. She created a big impression on debut at Sandown when sitting on speed before showing an electric turn of foot in the straight to win most impressively. Harder here, but there is so much upside with her and she looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: The Blinkers going on for the first time could spark the Gai Waterhouse trained Guilietta (Best Odds: $8.00) into action. She resumed here in the Quezette and looked a little lost when seventh to Petits Filou, beaten five lengths. Easier here, she has the experience now around Caulfield and is the class runner.
Roughie: Air Apparent (Best Odds: $8.50) was one of the better performed two year olds during the Autumn, so it was no surprise to see her start at around $1.30 when resuming on the Geelong Synthetic, and simply just forget she went around there. Got too far back on a track where leaders are seriously advantaged. She is classy and she can sharply improve here.
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Race Three (1:30pm) : Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Nightmare race to sort out. I’ll go with Sir Berus (Best Odds: $10.00) . He has been excellent since joining the Colin Little stable, and there was plenty to like about his first up effort down the Flemington straight when working home from near last to run fifth to Sunday Escape, beaten just under three lengths. He was terribly unlucky over 1400m here second up last time in, and he looks to be going better now.
Big Danger: Cross Of Gold (Best Odds: $20.00) is a very consistent galloper for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who is never too far away from the action. He had performed well in several runs on the Geelong Synthetic before going to Flemington last start and fighting on very strongly to finish second to Del Prado, beaten 1.25L. His record at Caulfield isn’t flash, but this is a very even race and I don’t think he has been in better form.
Roughie: Reddamour (Best Odds: $19.00) resumed for Darren Weir last week at Seymour and I thought he was pretty good when fifth to surprise winner Glowstick. He looked as though he was going to burst through and win but he just died on the run late. He has a great second up record and loves racing at 1200m. Definite winning chance.
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Race Four (2:10pm) : H.D.F McNeil Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I think Mick Price will win the race with either Ready For Victory or Prince Of Brooklyn. I’m leaning towards Ready For Victory (Best Odds: $5.00), just based on the fact he has caught my attention a bit more than Prince Of Brooklyn. Ready For Victory was outstanding in his first two runs during the Autumn, scoring a strong debut win at Flemington before arguably costing himself second spot in the Slipper. He then ran in the Sires but by then he probably was looking for the spelling paddock. His two trials leading up to his return to racing have been awesome and looks spot on for a Caulfield Guineas prep.
Big Danger: Unbeaten colt Prince Of Brooklyn (Best Odds: $3.20) resumes here after two runs during the Winter, with the most impressive coming in the Elvstroem Classic during the Swan Hill Cup Carnival, beating home El Greco, who franked the form well and truly. His trials have also been sharp, and he is probably the more forward out of the Mick Price fancied pair here.
Roughie: Had those two horses not been here, I’d be all over Stoker (Best Odds: $14.00) for this. His first up run in the Vain Stakes was unbelievable when running fifth to Gold Synphony after sitting four and five wide no cover on speed for the entire trip. He should have finished last, but he only finished just over a length from the winner. With normal luck here, and with the added fitness, he will take a power of beating.
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Race Five (2:45pm) : Theshark.com.au Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: Best bet of the weekend for mine here in the shape of star kiwi mare Bounding (Best Odds: $3.60), who is now with Team Snowden. She hasn’t raced since this time last year where she performed well without winning. Now with the Snowdens, and she has been, along with Hartnell, the horse has caught my attention the most at the trials. I think she is a Group l winner this time in, and I am very confident she can get the job done.
Big Danger: One of the more interesting runners for the meeting is Rich Enuff (Best Odds: $2.50), who makes his return to racing after a strong Spring prep, which ended with a disappointing seventh to Brazen Beau in the Coolmore, but with hindsight, it was wrong to push on after the Caulfield Guineas. His two Cranbourne trial wins have been fantastic, he runs well fresh and his two Caulfield runs have been outstanding.
Roughie: Bull Point (Best Odds: $15.00) a very interesting runner. He was with Gai to begin with, then was with Chris Waller, but is now under the care of Tony McEvoy. He has his first run for McEvoy here off the back of a very impressive trial win at Morphettville a couple of weeks back. He is a two time first up winner, so market moves should be watched closely.
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Race Six (3:25pm) : hockingstuart Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $2.70) been ridden an absolute treat at his last three runs, all resulting in wins, including an all the way win three weeks back over this distance at Flemington. Harder here, but he is rock hard fit, looks the leader, and with the rail out six metres, leaders may prove tough to run down.
Big Danger: Zebrinz (Best Odds: $19.00) strung together three slick wins before being spelled. He resumed in the Aurie’s Star and worked home well late when sixth to Shiraz, beaten just over four lengths. He should take good improvement from that outing, Dunn is riding in fabulous form and this did run quite well second up last time in. Definite winning chance.
Roughie: Another interesting runner engaged at this meeting is Tall Ship (Best Odds: $51.00), who created a huge impression during the Autumn, highlighted by wins in the Stawell, Terang and Warrnambool Cups, most notably at the Bool where he was just so dominant. Stablemate Signoff resumed in this race last year and was luckless. He went on to win the Lexus and then run fourth in the Melbourne Cup, and this horse could do something very similar.
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Race Seven (4:05pm) : William Hill Sprint Series Heat 1 1200m:
Back Me: Going with the class runner, which is Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $4.40), who resumes here for Gai after a solid Autumn, with the highlight being her Group l win in the Canterbury Stakes. First up here, but she has looked pretty sharp in a couple of barrier trials in Sydney, and she did work home very strongly first up last time in.
Big Danger: I was keen on Griante (Best Odds: $8.50) when she resumed here, but she just looked in need of the run when tiring late to finish ninth to surprise winner Setinum. Her trial leading up to that was fantastic, so I am convinced she has come back in good order, and now she’s fitter, she should be strong at the end. There is no speed near her, so I think she can get over without too much hassle.
Roughie: Double Dee (Best Odds: $51.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming at Sandown, yet she stormed home from near last and surged to the line to Pink Perfection in the last stride or so. She always runs well early on in a preparation, and on her day she is a very good mare who can perform well at Stakes level, so she is a definite exotic player.
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Race Eight (4:45pm) : New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going with the classy gelding Boban (Best Odds: $4.80). He was great in two runs during the Brisbane Winter, first up scoring a brilliant Doomben 10,000 win before running a game second to Srikandi in the Stradbroke. Spelled and he has looked surprisingly sharp in two trials, which is surprising given he normally doesn’t trial that great. He runs very well fresh and he has shown in the past he can be lethal at this track/distance on a firm surface. Big watch also on the kiwi star Volkstok’n’barrell, who looked outstanding in a Ruakaka trial earlier in the month.
Big Danger: Stratum Star (Best Odds: $8.50) was just so consistent during the Autumn, but couldn’t quite greet the judge in some high class races, including the Australian Guineas. He resumed in the Regal Roller (1200m) a fortnight back and worked home hard from last to finish fifth to Setinum, beaten two lengths. He will love the rise to 1400m, fitter and will be more sharp compared to some of his main rivals, so he certainly can’t be entirely ruled out.
Roughie: Happy Trails (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed in the Spring Stakes at Morphettville and worked home okay late to run sixth to surprise winner Red Eclipse, beaten just over four lengths in what was a tidy first up run. He runs well second, loves racing at Caulfield, and he has got the run under the belt, so he should prove hard to beat.
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Race Nine (5:20pm) : Sheen Group Heatherlie Stakes 1700m:
Back Me: Even though he is terribly weighted, I’ll take a chance with Taiyoo (Best Odds: $17.00) for Weir and Allen. The P.B. Lawrence was dominated by those on speed, and Taiyoo, despite sitting wide no cover for the entire trip, was one of the best of the closers from the back. He is ticking over very nicely for the Spring, and with the run under the belt now, he should be closer to peak fitness, and one thing we know with him is that he is a winner.
Big Danger: Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $5.00) also resumed in the P.B. Lawrence and he looked a little lost around Caulfield, and got on the wrong leg on the home turn, losing momentum, but he wasn’t far off Mourinho. Up to 1700m looks ideal, and dodging the elite gallopers in the Memsie should see him prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Escado (Best Odds: $17.00) put behind him a very long run of outs with a win in the Tatts Cup on Tatts Tiara Day on the Gold Coast before being spelled. He has looked surprisingly sharp in a couple of Cranbourne barrier trials, and I am tipping him to run a very forward race fresh, especially from a beautiful gate with Melham aboard.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Bounding
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Ready For Victory
VALUE: Race Three Number 4 Sir Berus
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 16
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 14, 17
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 17
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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