Sydney punters can, fingers crossed, look forward to fair and competitive racing this Saturday at Rosehill, getting away from the putrid display of the Kensington track last weekend. The weather is fine, the track is good and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (1:15pm) : TAB.com.au Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: In a race filled with first starters, I’ll be going with the horse with the race experience in Right Of Way (Best Odds: $2.50), who was very good on debut here a couple of weeks back when a length second to Paceman, who has so far been the most impressive two year old in Sydney this season. She will jump, lead and prove very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Sampeah (Best Odds: $2.60) is another Godolphin first starter who should make her presence felt here off the back of an impressive all the way trial win here on November 13, running the quickest time out of the two year old trials and one of the best for the morning. Stable is low flying with their babies, and they have another good one here it seems.
Roughie: Let’s Make It Rain (Best Odds: $7.00) trialled at Randwick on November 17 and showed good speed to lead throughout and win the trial in really quick time, and winning by a handsome margin. He is a well bred colt in a good stable, and Sam Clipperton is one of the form riders in Sydney at the moment.
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Race Two (1:50pm) : De Bortoli Wines Handicap (71) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: I was really impressed with the maiden win of Invitations (Best Odds: $3.90) at Newcastle last time out. He copped pressure in front throughout, but as soon as they straightened, he gapped them and ran really good time, clocking sub 34 for his final 600m. The Godolphin team don’t usually send them from a maiden straight to Saturday grade unless they are pretty smart, which I am sure that Invitations is.
Big Danger: Aerobar (Best Odds: $12.00) comfortably beat his rivals first up in the mud at Warwick Farm, then went Flemington and was far from disgraced in the Gucci when ninth to Onemorezeta, beaten five lengths. Back to his right level, should easily punch up and hold a good spot from the draw and is trained on the track.
Roughie: Oscuro (Best Odds: $31.00) was a heavy odds on pop on debut at Newcastle and justified that short quote with a spanking before going to Gosford where he missed the kick and didn’t get a great deal of luck in the run when fourth. He is a good horse IMO, the blinkers go on for the first time, back to his own age, drawn well and gets a nice weight pull.
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Race Three (2:25pm) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (80) 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Most of these mares are coming through the November 15 race here over 1200m in which Mesmereyser won. I think the mares with the weight pull will have the final say here, and I think the best run was from Mamwaazel (Best Odds: $4.60). She had absolutely no luck first up behind Holy Delusions, then went to the race mentioned and I thought she was very good there considering she got a long way back and was forced very wide on the turn. The smaller field will ensure she isn’t as far back as normal, Bowman rides and the mare is on the up.
Big Danger: Command More (Best Odds: $13.00) bolted in three back at Warwick Farm before being just behind Holy Delusions. She then came here and was a shade unlucky when fourth given she was near the fence and not really getting much room. She eventually got clear and hit the line with real purpose. Stays on the minimum and will appreciate a decent speed.
Roughie: Holy Delusions (Best Odds: $12.00) was given a beaut steer by Glyn Schofield to win here first up, then last time out she was again ridden for luck and she didn’t get it, but by the same time she wasn’t really attacking the line. I think an inside gate and perhaps getting over the ‘second up syndrome’ could spark improvement.
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Race Four (3:05pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap (75) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Catseye Surprise (Best Odds: $14.00). I thought she was pretty good last time in against some handy opposition. First up winner at Canterbury was followed up by a second, then a fourth to Gold Epona and then a three length ninth to I’ve Got The Looks, a subsequent Group ll performer. She looked very slick in a recent Hawkesbury trial win and is a noted first up performer. Drawn to get the gun run behind Cosmic Cameo and is a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: Coolring (Best Odds: $9.50) resumes here for Bjorn Baker from a three month break. He was last seen at Randwick over 1300m when seventh, beaten fourth lengths, by a future Group l winner in As Needed who broke the track record. Looked impressive in a recent barrier trial at Warwick Farm and the booking of Hugh Bowman fresh is a good lead.
Roughie: Miss Alibi (Best Odds: $9.50) resumes here for John McNair after a solid yet frustrating Winter. She raced very well, placing on several occasions, but couldn’t quite greet the judge. The form around her is excellent, with runs behind Rifleman (Stakes placed since), Diamond Oasis (Dual city winner since) and Gold Epona (Stakes performed since). Looked very good in a recent trial win and is a very reliable commodity first up.
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Race Five (3:45pm) : ATC Cup 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Beyond Thankful (Best Odds: $4.60) was heavily backed to win here two weeks back and was very unlucky not to win when fourth to Malice, beaten a half length. He didn’t really get clear and was never allowed to build up momentum, which is desperately needed to be done by this horse. In what looks to be a very thin race, I am tipping the horse who is in form and on the up in a prep, and down in the weights.
Big Danger: Permit (Best Odds: $11.00) looked as if he was going to be a surprise first up winner over 1900m here, but he just got tired the final couple of strides and was nailed by Malice and Midsummer Sun. He has a solid second up record and is another with a stack of upside. 59kg is the only reason he isn’t on top.
Roughie: Metaphorical (Best Odds: $9.50) comes to Sydney after a dominant win over 2040m at the Valley against the mares. The field was pretty ordinary, but she needed to put them away and did so quite comfortably. Takes on the boys now, but is on the minimum and she will run a very strong 2000m. Wouldn’t be surprised see her greet the judge.
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Race Six (4:25pm) : Festival Stakes 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on the Queensland star Sir Moments (Best Odds: $4.60). For mine, he is the Villiers winner and whatever he does here will be a bonus. His two runs back from a spell have been outstanding, first up coming from last against the bias to run third at Doomben before going to the Gold Coast and smartly putting his rivals away. Bigger track, longer straight, down in weight from last start and a fast speed…all boxes ticked for mine.
Big Danger: If you backed Generalife (Best Odds: $4.80) in the Kevin Heffernan at Sportingbet Park, you would have thought “Oh no, not the old Generalife!”. He had the race shot to bits 300m out, but when McDonald asked for the effort, he didn’t find too much and Fast ‘N’ Rocking just wanted it more. Perhaps coming back to a track/distance he is so good at may spark the genuine Generalife back to life.
Roughie: Heart Testa (Best Odds: $9.50) chased a hot speed over 1350m here last time out when sitting near Road To Summer. He quickly put that horse away on the turn, and was left a sitting shot, but Blake Shinn nursed him and nursed him, and let down at the right time to win very impressively. Query is the rise to 1500m, but he loves racing on his home track and is back in winning form.
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Race Seven (4:25pm) : Starlight Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the dazzling turn of foot Dothraki (Best Odds: $5.00) showed to win over this track/distance a fortnight back, coming from worse than midfield and letting down with a powerful sprint to win and win with something in reserve. He was tried out as a 1200m-1400m horse, but the key to him is 1000m-1100m and a fast tempo. He gets that here, so he will go very close.
Big Danger: Shamalia (Best Odds: $9.00) was terrible here when resuming behind Catkins after being well backed. She went to the trials and then went to Randwick and ran a credible third to Deep Field before going to the Valley and winning there impressively, carrying 60kg. Drops to the minimum of 54kg now and appears in really good form, plus from all reports, her work on Tuesday was very sharp.
Roughie: A fast run race and a firm track will also suit the topweight Aeronautical (Best Odds: $18.00). He resumed in the Lightning at Randwick and was just run off his legs by Deep Field, but did make up ground late. Since been back to the trials and looked very impressive there, winning by nearly three lengths. He is a class act when right, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him blouse these.
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Race Eight (5:40pm) : Irresistible Pools & Spas Handicap (85) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Amovatio (Best Odds: $8.00) has strung together three very impressive runs, culminating with a fast finishing win at Randwick over the mile three weeks ago. Back to 1350m shouldn’t be an issue I think because there does appear to be good speed here, and he is the obvious class runner. Clear horse to beat in this and one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Commanding Wit (Best Odds: $4.00) was very good here in defeat a couple of weeks back when second to Vashka. She got stuck behind a wall of runners on the turn while the winner had all the momentum and booted for home. Commanding Wit eventually got out and really found the line with purpose. Confident she can turn the tables on Vashka, down in the weights and drawn well.
Roughie: Dream Choice (Best Odds: $6.50) worked home strongly two back over 1200m here when sixth to You’ll Never before dropping back to 1100m and again running on late for fourth to Dothraki. The big key here is up to 1350m and a big field with good speed. He has been teasing that he’ll threaten, and now he gets his chance.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Sir Moments
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Dothraki
VALUE: Race Four Number 13 Catseye Surprise
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10
Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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