The 2012/13 night racing season in Victoria kicks off on Friday night at Moonee Valley with the feature race being the $300,000 Group ll Spotless A.J. Moir Stakes (1200m). Queensland bulldog Buffering is the top pick with punters, narrowly head of consistent Sydney sprinter Tiger Tees.
But the highlight of the evening will be champion colt Pierro and his debut run around Moonee Valley in the $220,000 Group ll City Jeep Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m). If he handles the circuit well and wins comfortably, then he’ll be crunched for the Cox Plate, so my suggestion is back him now for the Cox Plate before Friday night.
Gun filly Snitzerland is looking to keep her unbeaten record this spring in tact when she lines up against nine rivals in the $150,000 Group lll T B V- Champagne Stakes (1200m). She dominates the betting and given her form, it’s hard to argue with that.
One thing I will add is be careful when betting here. Night racing is completely different to racing in the afternoon. It might not seem like much, but some horses can handle racing under lights while others can’t, so see how they parade in the ring before betting.
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Race One: Sportingbet Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I think the bookies have got it wrong, putting Generalife up at $3.90. I thought he’d be shorter given how impressive he was first up at Bendigo. He sat back, eased out and won as he liked, sitting up on the line with five lengths to spare. He has good form around him and I think he can take the next step here.
Don’t Back Me: Gold Rory did look very impressive winning on debut in a city class race at Mornington, but the horses he beat aren’t anything special and he goes up a couple of notches in depth. I feel he might get found out here.
Big Danger: It’s hard to argue with what Clinton Affair has done. Two starts back in the autumn for two all-the-way victories. He could again lead here or just get the perfect sit off Chosen Moment. Either way, he is a danger.
Roughie: Velonski couldn’t keep up with Gold Rory at Mornington, but once he got balanced up, he found the line. The big advantage with this bloke is that he has won over this track/distance and Olly takes over.
$500 Generalife Free Bet
Race Two: Mitchelton Wines Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for a bit of value in the shape of Spot On Maggie. I thought there was nothing wrong with her first up run at Caulfield behind Dream Face (won again since). She sat back and wide, was off the bit a fair way out, but she kept coming and under the circumstances, she was one of the runs of the face. There is a bit of depth here, but she does have that run under her belt and is on the minimum. I think the $9 is overs.
Don’t Back Me: All the breaks went Serene Star’s way at Mornington. She sat off the back of a very hot speed and all the gaps appeared for her and she was able to win. She rises in class here and is being asked to carry 59.5kg.
Danger: Aerobatics is a fresh sort of mare, so if she is going to win a race this time, it’ll be either here or next start. She wasn’t too bad when resuming behind Tiger Tees. Massive drop in grade here, drawn beautifully and this is the easiest race she has contested for a little while.
Roughie: Shabangabang was a well tried favourite at Mornington, but when the gates opened, she stood there and it was game over after that. If she gets away with them and takes up her normal role as leader, she’ll give cheek at odds.
$500 Spot On Maggie Free Bet
Race Three: Jeep Don’t Hold Back Handicap 1514m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horse race between Spacecraft and Tokugawa. Leaning towards the former given he’ll be up on the speed while the other one will be sitting back and giving Spacecraft a nice start, which is hard to do at the Valley.
Don’t Back Me: Steer clear of the others. Two horse race.
Big Danger: Tokugawa was far from disgraced in the Dato Tan Chin Nam. He got back, hugged the rail, never really got clear until the top of the straight where he hit the line nicely. That run was a beauty and is a deserved favourite. If Froggy can get him within range of Spacecraft, then it’s over. But that might be against his racing pattern and it might take away his finishing burst.
Roughie: Keep an eye on former English stayer Picture Editor. When racing overseas, he raced alongside the best, Frankel. Has had one start in Australia, back in May at Bendigo, where he sort of was lost throughout and didn’t look comfortable at all. Probably won’t win here, but look for him to wind up late.
$500 Spacecraft Free Bet
Race Four: T B V Champagne Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Snitzerland appears to be one of the bankers tonight. Classy filly who toyed with them in the San Domenico before being ridden beautifully under the testing conditions in the Danehill at Flemington. She just beats these.
Don’t Back Me: Elite Elle needs a wet track. Simple as that. She won’t get that ie won’t win here.
Big Danger: Hoss Amor was very good during the winter in Brisbane, winning three of her four starts with the other being a somewhat unlucky second. Trialled nicely the other day at Randwick and should be in the placings with normal luck.
Roughie: Saturn Rock didn’t have clear galloping space when resuming behind boom filly Love For Ransom. She’ll probably sit back near last and work home nicely and could easily be in the first four.
$500 Snitzerland Free Bet
Race Five: Essendon Mazda 55 Second Heat 955m Form Guide
Back Me: Very keen on Snitzem. I loved his first up run in the McEwen here over 1000m where he did some work early to find the lead, controlled, and kicked clear, only to be gunned down by a top class sprinter and a consistent mare. Bossy will bounce him out, he’ll lead and should be too nippy for these, especially if he reproduces that McEwen run.
Don’t Back Me: I’m not quite sure about Broken. Really talented gelding, but I question how far he’ll get back. It’s very hard for backmarkers to swoop in these dash for cash events and that’s what Chad will have to do here. Just not 100% confident he’ll be able to do that and win.
Big Danger: General Truce has great overall records heading into this race. Moonee Valley (5:2-2-1), the distance (14:4-3-3) and when first up (5:1-3-1)…pretty compelling stats for him here. $7.50 is big overs.
Roughie: Umgeton had no luck in the McEwen. Prior to that he was desperately unlucky in the Carlyon behind Broken. He was going to win the race, but the original winner Unanimously flattened him at the 100m, causing him to lose all momentum. If he can slide across or get cover here, he is going to be a great value hope.
$500 Snitzem Free Bet
Race Six: Spotless A.J. Moir Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: With no Black Caviar or Hay List around, we need a new top sprinter…and this race is perfect to sort it out. I love the Queenslander Buffering. He is one of those horses that race so well yet can’t quite get that elusive major triumph. Second to BC in the Patinack Classic last year, third to her in the Lightning, pipped on the post by Hay List in the Newmarket, third behind Foxwedge in the William Reid, second to Sea Siren in the Doomben 10,000 and second to Mid Summer Music in the Stradbroke. He deserves a big race win and I am confident he’ll kick things off tonight with a success.
Don’t Back Me: I only see four winning hopes here- Buffering, Atomic Force, Ready To Rip and Tiger Tees.
Big Danger: It was hard not be impressed by Tiger Tees and his spank job in the Concorde when resuming a few weeks back. He is the most consistent sprinter in Sydney and he deserves a crack at the good races in Melbourne given there is no standout.
Roughie: I think the WFA scale helps Atomic Force. He has been a touch off in two runs this time in since his success across the Tasman. I’m expecting big improvement from him now he is under the care of Mick Price. Ready To Rip is probably better suited with some give in the ground, but is racing too well to dismiss and he does have the rails draw.
$500 Buffering Free Bet
Race Seven: City Jeep Bill Stutt Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Is there a need to discuss anything? Pierro. Just got to get around the Valley with no concerns and he’ll win.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the bulldog of Sydney racing.
Big Danger: Jimando was excellent in winning the Henry Bucks at Flemington on Makybe Diva Stakes Day. He sat in a beautiful spot, pushed his way into the clear, took a while to get going, but his last 200m was very good for a horse going towards the Derby. Look for him to again run on.
Roughie: Road Trippin wasn’t too bad last Saturday at Caulfield over the 1700m. He did a stack of work to sit outside the speed, eventually took the lead on the turn, kicked clear and fought on solidly over the final furlong. He should get a much easier trip here and at big odds, he could surprise. Definitely throw him in exotics.
$500 Pierro Free Bet
Race Eight: Programmed Property JRA Cup 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll go with Excluded, but I don’t think he is a special. His last two wins have been good, but nothing special. He hasn’t really been fully tested against good, tough stayers yet and he’ll get that here. This’ll be a good test to see if he is a genuine Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup contender.
Don’t Back Me: Can’t really rule anything out because it’s such a tough race with many chances.
Big Danger: He didn’t beat much, but the amount of confidence that Precedence got from winning last start is anyones guess. He might have finally turned the corner with that boost and can perhaps go on with it. But $6 is a bit thin.
Roughie: Miss Artistic seems the big overs at $17. She is a group one winner in New Zealand and I thought her first up run behind Zurella was solid enough. She might need this run under her belt also, but the price on offer is too good for a horse of her quality.
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