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The Autumn Carnival for Rosehill wraps up this Saturday, highlighted by a couple of Group l events, the $1.5 Million BMW (2400m) and the $400,000 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One (12:40pm) : The Schweppervescence 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: I think the rise to 1400m will really suit Mowgli, (Best Odds: $12.00) who worked home well last time out in the Magic Night Stakes (1200m) when eighth to Speak Fondly, beaten just over three lengths. She is a filly who is definitely looking for further, and on breeding, she should swim, plus the booking of Craig Williams is a good lead.
Big Danger: Italy (Best Odds: $9.50) was the somewhat unlucky runner in the Magic Night given she bungled the start and was forced to race near the inside. Looks the clear horse to beat on form, but I am not sure about her on wet ground and Mowgli does get a 1.5kg weight pull, plus appears to have more upside. Nonetheless, hard to beat.
Roughie: Mine Two (Best Odds: $12.00) loomed to be a real threat in the Reisling Stakes (1200m) at Randwick but her fitness just gave way late when fourth to English, beaten less than two lengths. That filly ran an almighty second in the Slipper last week, so the form has been franked, she has upside, and her sire is absolutely flying at the moment.

 

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Race Two (1:15pm) : Theraces.com.au Handicap (85) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Pretty keen on a horse resuming first up here, Hollywood Bound (Best Odds: $31.00). Loved the way he went about his latest trial, which was here, when running second to Group l mare Solicit, but he travelled very sweetly in the trial. Bossy booked, gate one, good fresh record and handles wet ground.
Big Danger: Sure And Fast (Best Odds: $4.00) booked himself a start in the Provincial Championship by bolting home in a heat at Wyong, charging home from off the speed to win very easily. Gets down to the minimum weight here, bred to swim and the stable is absolutely low flying at the moment, so he has to go in as a threat.
Roughie: Boss Lane (Best Odds: $21.00) worked home okay when resuming in the Maurice McCarten (1100m) when fifth to Target In Sight, beaten four lengths. He runs very well second up, handles the wet and receives a notable drop in grade.

 

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Race Three (1:50pm) : Hyland Colours Doncaster Prelude 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: I only see two winning hopes here- Leebaz (Best Odds: $3.40) and Bull Point. Leaning towards Leebaz. I thought there was plenty of merit in his effort in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) given he was first up and the pace was very strong, which was perhaps a touch against him, especially at WFA. Back to a handicap level and a drop in grade really suits, back to his home track and is three from four when produced second up.
Big Danger: Bull Point (Best Odds: $8.00) hasn’t been one of my horses because he just does too much, or alot has to go right for him to win, but gee I loved his trial effort here last Tuesday behind Charlie Boy, travelling outside that horse on speed most of the way and looking to travel very keenly. if everything goes his way, he can win, and on the trial effort, he is ticking over very well.
Roughie: Forget Rudy (Best Odds: $5.50) went around in the Ajax Stakes (1500m). It was a combination of bad luck and a bad ride which beat him, and he was forced to sit wide no cover for the entire. He was beaten off at the top of the straight, but the last 50m, he did pick up late and went through the line well. If he can overcome the wide draw, he’ll be a definite player.

 

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Race Four (2:30pm) : Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tipping an upset here courtesy of My Sabeel (Best Odds: $15.00). Her run in the Wenona Girl (1200m) was enormous given she was back near last and wide throughout, but she still loomed to win the race before just feeling the pinch late. Back up in distance looks ideal and most importantly gets a wet track, where she grows a leg. And the last time she met Catkins, she was only 0.75L off her, so she is in this up to her ears.
Big Danger: Chris Waller and the Inghams are probably thinking they’ll never get a Group l with Catkins (Best Odds: $1.80). On paper, the Canterbury Stakes looked hers, but a brilliant ride from McDonald on Cosmic Endeavour took the wind out of Catkins’ sails, and she was off the bit all the way, yet she still hit the line strongly to run second. Back to mares grade now, McDonald rides, and although drawn awkwardly, she should take a power of beating.
Roughie: The blinkers back on could spark improvement from Gypsy Diamond (Best Odds: $14.00), who ran ok last week in the Newcastle Newmarket Handicap (1400m) given she was worse than midfield and they went very slowly in front, with the first 800m run in just under 49 seconds. Handles give in the ground, has gate one and should be cherry ripe fitness wise.

 

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Race Five (3:10pm) : Irresistible Pools & Spas Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: He hasn’t won in a long time, but at some value, I’ll go with Rain Affair (Best Odds: $20.00). He tends to race best when he dominates from the front and has give in the ground. The last time that happened was in the 2013 Missile Stakes (1200m) when winning by nearly six lengths against a field which had similar depth to what he faces here. He has had several runs since then, and he has either not led, or he has bumped into a dry track. There is no other speed runners engaged here, and Williams jumps on. His lone ride on the horse was in the 2013 All Aged (1400m) and he went within a lip of beating All Too Hard, and he did beat home Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente. I’m keen on him each way, but this is his final chance.
Big Danger: Target In Sight (Best Odds: $4.00) was given a beaut ride by McDonald to beat home Deep Field first up in the Maurice McCarten (1100m), and while that form hasn’t been franked, the win on face value was impressive. Drawn terribly here, but he is a winner, great second up record and handles all conditions.
Roughie: Lucky Lago (Best Odds: $51.00) hasn’t raced since the Dane Ripper during the Brisbane Winter when running a 4.7L ninth to Cosmic Endeavour. She has always promised so much, but is yet to deliver. In saying that, she did trial really well recently at Warwick Farm behind Rebel Dane, who goes around in the William Reid on Friday night. A must for exotics off the back of that impressive trial.

 

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Race Six (3:50pm) : Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: It’s a real toss up here. Do you go with the class, First Seal, or something else that will be strong at the end of 2000m. I am leaning towards the latter and for that reason, Set Square (Best Odds: $9.50) is on top. The Crown Oaks (2500m) winner resumed with a strong second in the Vanity (1400m) to Sweet And Speedy before running a game third to the impressive Noble Protector in the Matron Stakes (1600m). Third up at 2000m looks perfect, and she did win third up at 2000m in the Spring before winning the Oaks. Could well be an identical finish.
Big Danger: First Seal (Best Odds: $1.90) is the clear class filly who probably has about six lengths on these in that aspect, so she has to go in as a threat. She should have won the Coolmore Classic (1500m) given she was stuck three wide no cover for the entire journey yet still hit the front and looked home, but was grabbed right on the peg. Provided she has recovered from that torrid run, and with better luck, she should go very close to winning.
Roughie: Winx (Best Odds: $7.00) had been pretty good in two runs back from a break against her own age and sex, but when she stepped out into the mounting yard for the Pharlap Stakes (1500m), she looked a different filly and you wanted to put everything you had on her. She ran up to her looks and the confidence of the punters, sitting out the back and charging home to win and win with ease. I’m not sure she is a 2000m horse, but she does have class and brilliance.

 

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Race Seven (4:30pm) : The BMW 2400m: Form Guide

Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the win of Hartnell (Best Odds: $3.80) in the Sky High Stakes (2000m) last time out here after a brilliant debut in the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) behind stablemate Contributer. Looks the one on the up, he’ll relish the rise to 2400m, and he should be just about there fitness wise. Should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: The give in the ground brings Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $9.00) right into the mix. Thought she ran really well last week in the Ranvet Stakes (2000m), making up good ground near the inside and grinding away strongly when third to Contributer. Bowman off is the negative given that Cassidy hasn’t ridden her before, a but a jock who is ridden 100+ Group l winners is a fair replacement.
Roughie: I give Opinion (Best Odds: $41.00) a serious upset chance. His effort in the Sky High behind Contributer, running second, was fantastic for a horse who was totally unsuited both on firm ground and at the distance. He gets a rain affected track, up to 2400m, fitter…a definite chance IMO.

 

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Race Eight (5:10pm) : Tulloch Stakes 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: A start in the Derby next week is on the line, or some guaranteed a start are using this as a final tune up. The horse that has been touted as a Derby horse for a while is Ruling Dynasty (Best Odds: $7.50) for Team Cummings. It’s been an unconventional path used by the stable, putting him through his grades against the older horses, but one thing he does have in his favour is that he has had solid experience over the distance, including a five length romp last time out against the older horses at Kembla. Not sure he can win a Derby, but I am pretty confident he can win this.
Big Danger: I think $26 for Diamond Valores (Best Odds: $8.00) in the Derby is crazy overs. I really liked his effort in the Pharlap Stakes (1500m) after two ordinary runs. He peeled off the back of the leader and just looked lost, floating about a bit with nothing in front of him. He is better with a bunny to chase, and he is now getting to an ideal trip, plus he is getting near peak fitness. He’ll take a power of beating here, and in the Derby next week he could be the knockout horse.
Roughie: Happy Soul (Best Odds: $51.00) has strung together two strong wins at the provincials at his last two outings. He broke the maiden at Goulburn in good style before going to Newcastle, and aided by a gem steer from Mitchell Bell, he toughed it out best to win. He is not the best horse in the race, but he knows where the post is, and he has a lethal closing split on him when ridden cold.

 

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Race Nine (5:50pm) : The Sunday Telegraph Neville Sellwood Stakse 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going with Hawkspur (Best Odds: $9.00). His form this time in had been terrible, but he did show sharp improvement behind Hartnell in the Sky High Stakes (2000m), working home strongly along the inside to run a close up third, beaten over two lengths. The key to him is finding form, and once he does find it, especially during the Autumn, he holds it.
Big Danger: Pornichet (Best Odds: $4.60) looked much better in the mounting yard prior to the Ajax Stakes (1500m), and he did look to travel very well in the run, but he just couldn’t quite finish the race off. Third up at 2000m now should see him run much better, and at the weights, he does look well placed.
Roughie: Himalaya Dream (Best Odds: $9.00) was given a lovely front running ride by Tommy Berry to win a couple of weeks back over 1500m here, beating home a handy type in Silverball. His best form overseas was at this distance, so it’ll be really interesting to see how he performs at the distance on Aussie soil against several Group l performers.

 

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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Hartnell

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 10 Hollywood Bound

VALUE: Race One Number 13 Mowgli

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4

Leg Two: 4, 7, 8, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment= 9.25% of the dividend if successful.

 

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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