A secured start in the Caulfield Cup is there for the winner of this Saturdays $350,000 Listed Mornington Cup (2400m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. The track hasn’t been used for a while, and it can tend to favour leaders, so given the long time between meetings, we could well see horses either on speed or near the rail hard to beat.
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Race One (12:25pm) : Window Warehouse Handicap (70) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Bella Capri (Best Odds: $4.20) is on the quick back up after racing last weekend at Bendigo where she was enormous in defeat, sitting four deep no cover and only going down narrowly. This looks a touch harder, but with the claim for Jye McNeil, she should prove very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Ready To Fight (Best Odds: $2.60) drops significantly in grade after running a strong third to Pittsburgh Flyer at Flemington. That followed a strong maiden win at Sandown, so it was a big effort from her at Flemington. Looks well suited with the good gate and the claim for Mick Dee.
Roughie: Lexgetreddy (Best Odds: $12.00) had a tough run at the Valley last time out yet still went strongly when fourth to Secret Blend, beaten 2.6L. She is a filly who hasn’t raced with much luck throughout her career, and she again draws awkwardly here, but with normal luck, she won’t be far off the mark.
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Race Two (1:00pm) : Orbit Fitness Handicap (78) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be a stack of speed here. I’ll go with General Jackson (Best Odds: $7.50), purely thanks to the gate advantage. He ran a beauty last time out at the Valley and just failed to hold off Taddei Tondo after copping a stack of pressure on speed. He will cop pressure here also, but he has the inside draw and that is such an advantage at Mornington.
Big Danger: 1000m is as far as Override (Best Odds: $6.00) wants it, but he has been racing very consistently this time in, including an all the way win over this distance at the Valley. This looks a tougher 78 race compared to the one he won there, but he should get outside General Jackson comfortably and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: A fast run race will really suit Inspector (Best Odds: $13.00), who did work home well first up over this distance on Stony Creek Cup Day a couple of weeks back when second to Tricky Glen. He’ll get a soft trip from the gate and will be strong late.
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Race Three (1:35pm) : MackTow Marathon Series Heat 2 (84) 3400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Sommernachtstraum (Best Odds: $7.00), who has had a couple of runs now for Robert Kingston, and has been quite good at each outing, most notably last time out at Sandown over 3000m when fourth to Jileks Spur. He’ll relish the rise in distance, and most importantly he gets some weight relief for an in form apprentice.
Big Danger: What you see is what you get with Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $3.60). He might not be the best horse in the race, but he certainly does bust his gut every time he steps out on the track, like in that 3000m race at Sandown when just failing to pick up Jileks Spur. Extra distance will be no trouble, and he’ll prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Who Says I’m Ready (Best Odds: $21.00) was enormous in defeat in the same race given he sat three wide no cover for the entire journey yet stuck on bravely to run fifth to Jileks Spur. Remains at 51kg, and in this staying test, I’d like to see Jess Payne run along in front and give them something to chase with no weight on his back.
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Race Four (2:10pm) : Martin Collins Fibretrack Sires’ 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: The Weald (Best Odds: $18.00) for me here. The Godolphin colt debuted at Sale and ran well when third to the impressive Payroll. That is one of the better form references for this event, and with the expected upside, he should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Cardoso (Best Odds: $7.00) has ran okay in two maiden outings, the latest being a closing fourth at Sale to impressive winner Payroll, and he was making ground on The Weald late there. With the scratching of Lazumba, this pair do look the hardest to beat.
Roughie: You always have to respect Mick Kent when he sends around a debutante in a strong race, and that is the case here with Alittle Loose (Best Odds: $5.50). Hasn’t trialled publicly, so nothing to go on other than the fact MIck Kent has a remarkable record with these first starters. Big watch.
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Race Five (2:50pm) : Land Engineering Handicap (90) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Carlo Bugatti (Best Odds: $2.80) made his Australian debut for Team Williams and worked home well near the inside when third to Post D’France at Flemington, who has run well since. The stable haven’t had many runners for the Autumn, but they are in good form at the moment, and this horse has a stack of upside.
Big Danger: Tooleybuc Kid (Best Odds: $4.00) stuck to the task gamely in the Yarra Valley Cup (1950m) when running third to Index Linked and Wish Come True, both of which are leading contenders in the Cup later on. Draws awkwardly, but is the class runner and Brad Rawiller is back on, and he has a fabulous record with Weir runners.
Roughie: Schockemole (Best Odds: $13.00) wasn’t suited by the slow tempo at the Valley last time out when the heavily backed Don Doremo walked the field from the front end and gave nothing else a chance. Provided there is a genuine tempo here, he can be a leading contender, or at least an exotic player.
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Race Six (3:30pm) : Nepean Waste Handicap (70) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: The speedy Jemerica (Best Odds: $7.50) looks well placed here. She ran last time out over this distance at Ballarat when just failing to beat Aware, who ran well in a tougher race on Sunday at Geelong. She should ping to the lead from the good draw here, and the claim for Mick Dee is well used.
Big Danger: Carashan Girl (Best Odds: $4.50) wasn’t wanted in betting when resuming at Sale, but gee she just absolutely brained them, winning by four lengths and running very slick time for the journey. Has to step it up here in grade, but the stable is having a good run at the moment and will be near the speed, which is the right place to be.
Roughie: Stylish Miss (Best Odds: $9.00) was a short priced hot pot when resuming at Mildura and aided by a gem ride from Yendall, the Darren Weir trained mare proved too classy for her rivals. She did have strong city form last prep, so the step up here is no worry IMO, she draws well and gets the claim for Jye McNeil.
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Race Seven (4:10pm) : BAYSIDE Jeep Guineas 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Show A Star (Best Odds: $4.75) looks the best bet on the program. He has been very impressive at his past two starts, starting off with a dominant maiden win at Ballarat before going to Sandown and leading all the way to win strongly. Michelle Payne jumps back aboard, should roll to the lead from the gate, and on current form, he looks the winner.
Big Danger: Second Option (Best Odds: $18.00) bungled the start last time out at Yarra Valley yet surged home from last to get the job done, beating home the older horses. He has been poor in two runs at this track in the past, but he is a far better horse this time in and draws a decent gate to get a soft trip.
Roughie: Keep The Klass (Best Odds: $51.00) showed a lovely turn of foot to break her maiden at Sandown last time out under the urgings of Brad Rawiller, putting them away early on in the straight and going strong through the line. Up in class, but draws well and the stable is absolutely low flying.
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Race Eight (4:50pm): IVECO Melbourne Truck Centre Hareeba Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hot race for the sprinters. Putting the kiwi galloper Natuzzi (Best Odds: $18.00) on top. Forgive him for his failure at Flemington given he pulled his head off in the run. He had every right to drop out and run last, but he picked up over the final furlong and worked home well for fifth. With better racing manners and a likely hot speed here, he’ll prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Mirage (Best Odds: $5.00) is the most interesting runner across Australia this weekend. He had three runs for Peter Moody back in the Summer of 2012/13 before being sold to Hong Kong. He had one start in Honkers, back this time last year and won. He is now back with Moody, and gee he looked awfully sharp in a recent jump out. Big watch first up.
Roughie: I was quite keen on Saluter (Best Odds: $31.00) first up at Flemington for the Freedman camp, but he pulled too hard and had nothing left for the straight. He has since been to the jump outs again and looked sharp last Friday at Werribee. With better racing manners, he can run a much better race.
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Race Nine (5:30pm) : William Hill Mornington Cup 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Akzar (Best Odds: $4.80) on top. He hasn’t won this prep, but gee he has run some rippers, including last start in the Australian Cup (2000m) when seventh to Spillway, beaten just under three lengths. Looks to be crying out for further than 2000m and he gets it here, plus a firm track. Combine those two factors, and he should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Wish Come True (Best Odds: $15.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break. He has finished second on both occasions, starting off with a narrow second to Self Sense in the Kilmore Cup (1600m) before going to the Yarra Valley Cup (1950m) and just failing to hold off Index Linked. His last run at this distance range was in the Lexus on Derby Day where he worked home well to run fourth to Signoff, who then went on to run a brave fourth in the Melbourne Cup. Good form for this.
Roughie: Banca Mo (Best Odds: $17.00) is a talented mare from Tassie who was strongly backed to win the Launceston Cup (2400m) last time out, but couldn’t quite fend off a strong challenge from Genuine Lad, who won impressively last week to frank the form. The Brunton camp is no stranger to travelling to Victoria, and they have had good success. No reason why this mare can’t perform well, plus she did look very sharp in an exhibition gallop last Wednesday night.
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Race Ten (6:05pm) : Mitavite Challenge Final (78) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Our Valdivia (Best Odds: $10.00) was simply terrible early on this prep, but he has struck a real purple patch in recent times, finishing top two at his past five starts, including a strong win last time out at Sale. He’ll get the soft trip again from the good draw, he is in form…no reason why he can’t win again.
Big Danger: Tucanchoo (Best Odds: $5.00) let down powerfully to win last time out at Sandown, charging home from the back and really savaging the line to get the job done. Fourth up now, so he should be ready fitness wise, so he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: Mywordsaidthebird (Best Odds: $12.00) strung together two wins before contesting the Casey Cup at Cranbourne and just failing to beat home Northern Lyric. He’ll get every chance from the inside gate and is a definite contender.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Show A Star
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Sommernachtstraum
VALUE: Race Four Number 4 The Weald
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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