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A bumper card has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday, where the feature race is the $150,000 Group lll Bletchingly Stakes (1200m), where all eyes will be on Lord Of The Sky and whether or not he can bounce back to the winners list. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One (12:00pm) : Noel Elizabeth Barter Handicap (78) 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Copernicus (Best Odds: $5.50) makes his city debut here, and I think it will be a winning debut. His two runs this time in have both resulted in wins, and I’d say both have been dominant, most notably his last start effort at Sale where he was given a beaut ride by apprentice Beau Mertens, hugging the fence all the way and giving nothing else a look in. This is a pretty thin 78 race, and now a senior rider goes on board, plus the horse can handle all conditions.
Big Danger: Corsica Lad (Best Odds: $4.80) was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Sir James Kirby on Grafton Cup Day and ran quite well I thought when second to Lyric, who had the suck run behind a hot speed. I also think with Corsica Lad that he is better with some give in the track, and the track that day was firm. Ollie aboard now, draws well and he was lethal when winning second up last time in.
Roughie: Cobblestones (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here after a disappointing Autumn, which saw her run twice and she was quite poor at each outing. Been given a good spell and she looked pretty good in a Cranbourne trial at the start of the week. She can run well fresh, draws well, and gets weight off after the claim for in form apprentice Katelyn Mallyon.

 

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Race Two (12:30pm) : David Hopwood Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Gredington (Best Odds: $4.80) was only second up when working home strongly from the back to get the job done in good style at Warrnambool (Metro). Third up last time in he ran second at Sandown before running fourth in the VRC Sires behind a classy type in Jameka, so there should be improvement off the win at the bool, and despite carrying topweight, he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Mail It In (Best Odds: $6.00) is a consistent type from Adelaide who is a maiden from six starts, but has placed in four runs in town, including last Saturday when working home powerfully from near last to run third to Jacksay, who is the in form two year old in Adelaide at the moment. His two runs prior to that were behind stablemate Royal Rumble, who came over here for the Taj Rossi Final and was outstanding in running fifth. Looks very well placed here on the quick back up.
Roughie: Red Alto (Best Odds: $4.80) worked home very strongly last week at the Valley when second to Equinova, beaten 1.5L. That was an excellent debut considering he made ground on a track where it was near impossible to. He looks to have a stack of upside, and on breeding he should love the rise to 1400m, plus Michael Walker has picked up from where he left off.

 

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Race Three (1:05pm) : Greg Williams Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Volcanic Ash (Best Odds: $2.15) for me here. He bumped into stablemate Duke Of Brunswick two back at Sale (Metro) when attempting to lead all the way before coming to this track/distance three weeks back, and aided by an absolute peach from Ollie, the son of Magnus proved far too good for his rivals, including Raposo, who backed up seven days later and won the Silver Bowl Final, as well as Herstory, who bolted up last Saturday. Looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Liberty Island (Best Odds: $4.60) has been excellent since coming to Melbourne for Chris Waller, with both runs being at Flemington, including the Silver Bowl Final last time out when running third to Raposo after receiving every chance in the run behind the leader for the entire trip. I think he is better ridden with cover, as we saw when he won at Canterbury against the on speed bias. Callow is on board, and he is riding in outstanding form at the moment.
Roughie: Lazyaxl (Best Odds: $8.50) was well backed to win last time out at the Valley, and jockey Dwayne Dunn rode an absolute peach, riding the track and not the horse. There was on speed bias that meeting so he sent this horse straight to the front and just gave nothing else a look in, bolting home to win comfortably. He is better ridden with cover, but he showed last time out that he has versatility.

 

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Race Four (1:45pm) : Aaron Barnett Handicap 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: This looks a lovely race for Chiavari (Best Odds: $5.00). She was having her first run in 26 days when sitting all the way here and storming home with Our Harmony to just miss out on victory, settling for third, beaten just over half a length. Fitter now, good gate, Ollie on board…she ticks all the boxes for mine and looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Northern Fury (Best Odds: $8.50) is definitely the interesting runner here. Unbeaten son of Northern Meteor for Matty Dale who has won both career runs, both at Wagga Wagga. He bolted home over 1000m, then stepped up to 1200m, and despite being under pressure from about the 500m mark, he proved too good for his rivals. He has accepted for Wagga Wagga on Friday, but I am sure he will run here given he only carries 52.5kg and gets a soft barrier.
Roughie: Mossbeat (Best Odds: $5.00) ran fifth in that Our Harmony race and I thought the filly was quite good there considering she was first up and had to make ground closer to the inside than most, and the inside part of the track was off that day. A cold is the key to her, because if ridden that way, she can unleash a powerful finishing burst.

 

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Race Five (2:20pm) : Mypunter.com.au Join Today Handicap 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going with Fine Approach (Best Odds: $6.50) here. She was nommed to run last weekend at Flemington but was left out and instead has been saved for this. She ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and looked unlucky when a close up fourth to Pilly’s Wish given she didn’t get a great deal of luck early on in the straight before eventually getting clear and storming home. Ollie sticks, draws well and should be in the finish with normal luck.
Big Danger: Pilly’s Wish (Best Odds: $3.10) won that race mentioned above thanks to an absolute peach of a ride from Dwayne Dunn, who just cuddled her and cuddled her before letting down powerfully and then clinging on to win. She can really savage the line if ridden properly, and if the button is pressed early, she will paddle to the line late, so Mick Dee will need to be careful, especially from the wide gate.
Roughie: The knockout chance here at odds is Flash Of Doubt (Best Odds: $21.00). She surprised many with a win three back at the Valley and in two runs since then, she has had no luck at all, getting stuck wide no cover for the entire trip on both occasions. She draws a bit better here, so if she can get in and get cover, she could cause an upset at huge odds.

 

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Race Six (3:00pm) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap 2400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Heavy (Best Odds: $3.40) produced a strange run over this track/distance a few weeks back. He appeared to travel well early, then when the leaders sprinted, he was left completely flat footed and looked gone, but he picked up the bit and just savaged the line late. He was nommed for the Gold Heath, but connections have instead stepped him up in trip, which I think will result in a win here.
Big Danger: Monteux (Best Odds: $5.00) was enormous in the Silver Bowl Final behind Raposo, getting a mile back from the wide gate before storming home to finish fifth, not beaten far. Up to 2400m from the mile, but that shouldn’t be an issue for mine given his racing pattern , he is trained on the track and Rawiller takes over.
Roughie: Zahspeed (Best Odds: $9.00) is on the seven day back up after getting the job done last time out on the Parks circuit at Morphettville, leading all the way thanks to a lovely front running steer from Matty Neilson. Mallyon takes over now, and she did ride the horse well here two back before the he went over to Adelaide and winning. 2400m won’t be an issue I think, and he isn’t badly weighted I think given his record.

 

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Race Seven (3:40pm) : Race-Tech Australia Bletchingly Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: It can be a real trap, but gee this looks Lord Of The Sky’s (Best Odds: $3.10) race to lose. Just forget he went around in the Monash. Missed the start and was dug up by Ollie, which wasn’t that great of an option. He is off and Newitt is on now. If he jumps cleanly, he will lead these comfortably, and given there will be give in the track, which suits him, he just looks perfectly placed.
Big Danger: Angels Beach (Best Odds: $4.40) ran a cracker in the Monash and looked home with about 200m to go, but she couldn’t quite go on with it and was no match late for the impressive Miss Promiscuity. Draws the pain, Chad Schofield aboard and she does look well placed. The only query is 1200m, but I am hoping she can receive a soft trip from the gate which allows her to run the trip out.
Roughie: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $26.00) is impossible to back and follow as a punter, but she is just racing so well without quite getting the job done. She ran in the Spring Final last time out at Flemington and worked home strongly late to run fifth to Play Master, beaten just under two lengths. Getting away from Flemington could well be ideal for her, and though she is not suited at WFA, she loves give in the ground and she will be strong late, plus Matty Allen is back aboard, and he rides the mare better than anyone else.

 

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Race Eight (4:20pm) : Victorian Spring Garden & Lifestyle Show VOBIS Gold Heath 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Manageress (Best Odds: $3.20) was very good to me in the Rivette, so I am not going to drop off her here. She came from a mile back in that race where it looked as though Kansas Sunflower was home, but Chris Parnham got the best out of this filly and she just savaged the line the last 100m and grabbed victory in the last couple of strides. Back to 1400m should be no issue and she remains at the same weight.
Big Danger: Back Refulgent (Best Odds: $9.00) at your own peril I think. He hasn’t won for a long time, but in several runs this time in, he has really teased and threatened to do the job and greet the judge. He looked just fair last time out at Flemington behind Clairvaux. His last three runs have been at Flemington, and I think getting away from there will be ideal, and the set weights and penalties scale should suit this horse.
Roughie: Tre Dieci (Best Odds: $21.00) was given a lovely on speed ride from Steve Arnold last time out at Bendigo, and the horse proved much too good for his rivals in a form race which looks pretty solid. His overall record doesn’t read great, but he has returned in great order this time in, and he doesn’t look totally out of this race. He definitely represents the value.

 

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Race Nine (4:55pm) : The Champagne Pommery Masters Handicap 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: Commanding Time (Best Odds: $11.00) raced at this track a couple of weeks back when running a close up third to impressive winner Lord Durante. He will take good improvement from that outing, and I think dropping back to 1800m with a senior rider back aboard should see him prove hard to hold out in a tough race to close out the program.
Big Danger: Good Value (Best Odds: $5.50) ran a very good fourth in the Winter Championship Final last time out at Flemington, coming home from a midfield spot to finish just under a length away from the winner, Amovatio, in a driving finish. Up to 1800m should suit, he likes racing at Caulfield and Michael Walker is back on, and he has ridden the horse to success in the past.
Roughie: Gingerboy (Best Odds: $17.00) wasn’t too bad when resuming at Sale behind Tankster, who has won in town in Adelaide since. Gingerboy then went to Gawler (Metro) and was really one paced but looked the winner 250m out until he just died on the run and had to settle for third. Looked sharp in a recent trial win over the jumps to sharpen him. Draws an inside gate, fitter, minimum weight and he loves a wet track.

 

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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Lord Of The Sky

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Chiavari

VALUE: Race Five Number 5 Fine Approach

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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