There may have been a couple of listed events here and there, but the Winter Carnival in Queensland properly kicks off this Saturday at the Gold Coast with Hollindale Stakes Day, a nine race card jam packed with six Group races. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:42am) : Surfers Paradise RSL Gunsynd Classic 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Inauguration (Best Odds: $3.20). He was resuming since December when closing off really strongly to run third to stablemate Hi World in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m). He is heading towards the Derby, and the positive lead is that Bowman sticks. Looks the way to go.
Big Danger: Gid Up Strop (Best Odds: $5.00) worked home powerfully from the back to win over the Doomben mile two weeks back, setting well of the speed before ducking and weaving his way through the field, then letting down powerfully. He is the pick of the locals both here and for the Derby, so he has to be rated as a serious contender.
Roughie: Ulmann (Best Odds: $6.50) is a stablemate of Inauguration and he took on the older horses last time out at Sandown and worked home strongly to beat King Of England, who was the subject of a significant plunge. The good thing about the win was that he was very strong at the end of 1600m, so 1800m will be no issue, and he has the fitness edge on the stablemate.
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Race Two (12:17pm) : Border Security Services Gold Coast Bracelet 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Game Of Fame (Best Odds: $11.00). I was quite keen on her last time out at Doomben, and when she peeled out on the home turn, she looked the winner, but she just took forever to wind up and couldn’t quite peg back the leaders. She was three lengths off Nozomi and Preferment and co in the Geelong Classic just four runs back. That’s good enough form to go close here.
Big Danger: Bohemian Lily (Best Odds: $4.75) was first up in Australia for Gai Waterhouse when racing over the Warwick Farm mile. She sat on speed and just kept grinding away when running third to Invizabeel, beaten just over a length. Her best form when trained in New Zealand was at around this distance range, and with Blake Shinn aboard, as well as the run under the belt, she’ll take some beating.
Roughie: Glorious Red (Best Odds: $15.00) finished just behind Game Of Fame in that mile race at Doomben, and Glorious Red was pretty game in defeat given she was wide early on and was forced to go forward, which isn’t her ideal. She is best ridden with cover and saved for the straight, so from the good draw, that should eventuate, and she will be strong at the end of 1800m.
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Race Three (12:52pm) : Goldcoastwebsites.com.au Chairman’s Handicap 2200m: Form Guide
Back Me: This race just looks at the mercy of Index Linked (Best Odds: $4.00), who looks so well in at the weights. Forget his Mornington Cup effort given he was given a horrible ride. Go on his run last week in the JRA Plate (2000m) at Randwick where he ran well when fifth to Gypsy Diamond. Up to 2200m looks ideal, Boss rides, gate one…looks the winner.
Big Danger: Sir John Hawkwood (Best Odds: $3.30) was ordinary in the Canberra Cup (2000m) then bounced back to form with a closing second to Tremec in the Chairman’s Handicap (2600m) at Randwick, looming to win, but not quite going on with it. Back to 2200m is definitely in his favour, has the weight pull on Tremec here, drawn well, should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Up in distance should suit Hi Son (Best Odds: $7.50), who has been okay in three runs back from a spell. He was perhaps ridden a touch too close last time out when fifth to classy galloper Sir Moments, so I think with a colder sit here, he could perhaps sneak into the first four with normal luck.
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Race Four (1:27pm) : Better Than Ready Silk Stocking 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a race in two between the two Sydney mares, Estonian Princess and I’ve Got The Looks (Best Odds: $2.65). Leaning towards the latter given she has produced a couple of outstanding trial wins, the latest coming on April 13 at Randwick. She flies fresh, draws gate one, and loves give in the ground. If ever she is going to win a Stakes race, this is it.
Big Danger: Estonian Princess (Best Odds: $8.50) is the class runner who resumes now for Gerald Ryan after formerly being with Scott Aspery. She trialled really well behind I’ve Got The Looks at Rosehill before trialling out the back behind Our Boy Malachi, and we know what that horse did last Saturday. Horror draw, but she has class.
Roughie: Diamond Fund (Best Odds: $6.50) has been freshened up after running a close up second over 1400m here on March 14. Hasn’t trialled since, so it’s hard to know where her fitness levels are at, but the last time she had a freshen up, she beat a Stakes class mare in Queen Of The Lochs, so she’s a definite chance.
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Race Five (2:02pm) : Carlton Draught Prime Minister’s Cup 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Grayson Square (Best Odds: $12.00). He resumed in the Chief De Beers (1110m) at Doomben and worked home strongly when sixth to the speedy Rocket To Glory, beaten three lengths. He ran second up last time in when fourth to Jopa, beaten a length, and I think Grayson Square has performed better since. Drawn well, has won at the track and is a three time winner at 1400m. Great each way bet.
Big Danger: The Peak (Best Odds: $3.60) did a power of work in the Victoria Handicap (1400m) yet still kept coming, and did look the winner, but couldn’t quite hold off the late finishing Waterman’s Bay. He was impressive in a couple of runs this way in February/March, Browne gets back aboard…ticks plenty of boxes.
Roughie: Gundy Spirit (Best Odds: $7.00) was given a sweet ride by Tim Bell to win last time out at Doomben, coming from near last and weaving his way through the field to get the job done. Ability wise, he is better than Saturday handicaps, so this is his first test, and he has drawn wide. That makes it hard, but the upside and brilliance is there.
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Race Six (2:42pm) : Moreton Hire Ken Russell Memorial Classic 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Regatta Rebel (Best Odds: $2.30) ran a strong race on debut for Gai Waterhouse at Randwick in the Kindergarten Stakes (1100m), sitting on speed and just failing to hold off classy Godolphin colt Furnaces. There looks to be plenty of upside, drawn well, hard to beat.
Big Danger: Blueberry Hill (Best Odds: $10.00) is two for two for Liam Birchley, and I was really impressed by his win last time out at the Sunshine Coast, where he let down powerfully late and just savaged the line. Drawn awkwardly, but has talent and is the pick of the locals here.
Roughie: The Wildman (Best Odds: $31.00) sat off the speed and pounced quickly to win and win impressively a couple of weeks back at the Sunshine Coast. He showed last prep that he can be competitive against some of the best youngsters in Queensland, so from the good gate and with the race fitness, he is a chance.
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Race Seven (3:17pm) : SMEG Victory Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be a stack of speed, so I’ll go with a horse who should get a cheap run off it, and that horse will be Knoydart (Best Odds: $4.80). He worked home strongly from last to run fourth to Miracles Of Life first up in the Challenge Stakes (1000m) before getting back again and working home late to finish sixth in the Galaxy (1100m) to Sweet Idea. WFA suits him perfectly here against this field, draws well, and he should be cherry ripe third up from a break.
Big Danger: Ball Of Muscle (Best Odds: $5.50) should have won first down the Flemington straight when asked to carry 60kg at his Melbourne debut, but he bungled the start, which cost him some energy at the end. Back to racing around a bending track, draws well and second up last time in he showed a lovely turn of foot with 58kg on a soft track to win impressively at Randwick. Hard to beat here. Also include Srikandi here, because her Geelong trial was outstanding.
Roughie: Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $61.00) should be forgiven for his first up failure in the Chief De Beers (1110m) given he was forced to sit wide throughout and just couldn’t get into the race. He did that last time in also. He ran okay first up, then bounced back to win the Prime Ministers Cup last year. Draws well here and regular rider Brenton Avdulla takes over the saddle.
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Race Eight (3:52pm) : Sky Thoroughbred Central A.D. Hollindale Stakes 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Off the back of a really impressive trial, I’ll put Moriarty (Best Odds: $10.00) on top. He resumed in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), and though he didn’t set the world on fire with his eighth placing, he wasn’t too bad, and that was/is the form race of the entire Sydney Autumn. He has been freshened up and comes to Queensland off the back of a really nice trial at Randwick when fifth to Miracles Of Life, easing back before weaving his way through the field under a good hold. He is the one I want to be on for the Winter when it comes to the middle distance majors.
Big Danger: Arabian Gold (Best Odds: $5.50) was brave in the Doncaster (1600m) when running sixth to Kermadec after getting a long way back in the run. She absolutely loves give in the ground, she thrived in Queensland this time last year and Oliver takes the ride from a good gate. Should be right in the finish.
Roughie: This is the first time Sir Moments (Best Odds: $18.00) has taken on the best of the best, so you’ll get a good guide as to how good he really is. He toyed with them last time out over the Doomben mile, and looks suited up to 1800m. Only query is that Tim Bell isn’t riding, and the form guide will tell you that this horse rarely performs when Bell isn’t steering. Also include Precedence in multiples. His recent trials have been very good and he ran well in this race last year.
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Race Nine (4:28pm) : Attwood Marshall Lawyers Gold Coast Guineas 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a hot race. Going to take a chance with the kiwi raider Huka Eagle (Best Odds: $7.50). He had five runs to kick off his career during the Spring/Summer, and the run that pops out straight away is his third start where he loomed to beat Volkstok’n’barrell over 1300m at Ellerslie, but we know how good that horse is, so running second is nothing to sneeze at. He comes to Queensland with no barrier trials, so I suspect fitness wise, he isn’t 100%, but on class and natural talent, he is exciting.
Big Danger: Beau Jet (Best Odds: $15.00) scored a top win first up at Doomben, aided by an absolute peach from Tim Bell, ducking and weaving his way through the field to savage the line best. He showed that brilliance in his first prep, and he has come back in even better order. Bad draw, but Oliver rides. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Executed (Best Odds: $31.00) is a tough galloper from the Sunshine Coast who caught the eye behind Beau Jet, making up good ground from the back to run third, beaten a long neck. Gets the barrier draw advantage on his side again and should settle a touch closer, he is rock hard fit and will be suited by the rise to 1200m.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Moriarty
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Inauguration
VALUE: Race Five Number 8 Grayson Square
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 10, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 11, 13, 14
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 12, 16, 17
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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