The Brisbane Winter Carnival continues at Doomben this Saturday, with the feature race being the $750,000 Group l James Boag’s Premium Doomben 10,000 (1350m), where Our Boy Malachi and Srikandi are fighting out favourtism. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:32) : Channel 7 Premier’s Cup 2020m: Form Guide
Back Me: Deary me. Ordinary staying race. The one with upside is Vilanova (Best Odds: $10.00), so I’ll go with him. He has had two runs back from a break, resuming at Randwick and finishing last behind Rugged Cross in a hot form race, then went to Warwick Farm and ran second last behind Pheidon. He grows another leg when in Brisbane, and his form up here is excellent. McEvoy sticks, draws well…hard to beat.
Big Danger: Wish Come True (Best Odds: $4.40) looks the obvious horse. He has raced very well this time in without winning, with his latest effort coming in the Toowoomba Cup when fourth to subsequent Doomben Cup winner Pornichet, beaten 1.8L. Massive drop in class here, Bossy rides and will appreciate the bigger track and slight drop in journey.
Roughie: Jetset Lad (Best Odds: $13.00) was the desperately unlucky runner in the Members Handicap (1600m), finishing eighth, beaten just over four lengths after being badly held up in the straight. Untested at this trip, but is giving the impression that he’ll appreciate it, and he strikes a very winnable race if he gets luck in the run.
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Race Two (12:07) : Glenlogan Park Stakes 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting I’ve Got The Looks (Best Odds: $4.00) on top. This mare has just been low flying since joining Team Snowden, and that has been clearly evident this time in, with a couple of slick trial wins which was followed up by a couple of Stakes wins, including the Juanmo Stakes (1200m) at Doomben a couple of weeks back, aided by a peach from Shinn. She did win third up last time, so don’t worry about her dropping off here. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Solicit (Best Odds: $8.00) had her first run for Gerald Ryan in the Hawksebury Crown (1300m), and on the turn she looked as though she was going to run last, but she picked up the last 150m, surged and got the win. When she run second up last time in when trained by the Ellerton/Zahra stable, she just failed in beating Dear Demi at Group ll level, but with Gerald, I think that form can be thrown given now she is in a new environment. She has the class, and looks well suited under the weights scale.
Roughie: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $7.00) is the knockout chance here. She finished her Spring/Summer prep on a high with a spanking at Randwick before being given a good spell. She resumed in the Juanmo and really caught the eye when finishing off strongly from the back to run fifth, beaten 3.5L. She looks to have come back in great order, and with normal luck, she’ll be right in the finish.
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Race Three (12:42) : Landfill Logistics Ascot Handiap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: If Delectation (Best Odds: $2.75) runs as well as he trialled, he’ll bolt in here. He finished the Sydney Autumn on the right note by winning the Arrowfield Sprint (1200m), beating home Bring Me The Maid, who has been excellent this carnival and will be a contender in the 10,000 later in the program. He has been freshened up and looked outstanding in a recent trial at Randwick behind Nayeli and the Royal Ascot bound Wandjina. That’s good enough to beat these with normal luck.
Big Danger: Rocket To Glory (Best Odds: $13.00) strung together two strong Stakes wins before contesting the Victory Stakes (1200m) and tiring late when seventh to Srikandi, beaten just under four lengths. Drops significantly in grade now and draws to lead here, and he races best when leading against the rail.
Roughie: Tokamak (Best Odds: $71.00) was a complete forgive run when resuming in the BRC Sprint (1350m) given he was wide no cover for the entire and the saddle slipped, so he had every right to finish last. He did work home strongly second up last time in, and is yet to miss a top two finish in four second up attempts, so he could well represent the value.
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Race Four (13:17) : Programmed Property Lord Mayor’s Cup 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ve narrowed it down to two chances here- I’m Imposing and Lucky Lago (Best Odds: $10.00). With the better wet track record, and weight pull, I’ll lean towards Lucky Lago, who ran in the Scone Cup last week and worked home strongly from near last to finish less than two lengths off Tales Of Grimm. Draws to be much closer now, Berry sticks and she is a swimmer. Hard to beat here.
Big Danger: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $4.00) is the in form runner given he finished third in the Doomben Cup a couple of weeks back behind tearaway winner Pornichet. He does handle give in the track, but isn’t as strong compared to running on top of the ground, but back to the mile suits, and the last time he ran on a wet track over the mile, he was within a lip of beating Rudy in the Villiers.
Roughie: The interesting runner here is the kiwi stayer Surpass (Best Odds: $26.00) for Mike Moroney, who has been back and forth between Australia and New Zealand. He normally does need a couple of runs to find his best, but he looked sharp in a Warwick Farm trial recently when running fourth under a really good hold. He is a swimmer and Blake Shinn is the in form rider of the Carnival so far.
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Race Five (13:57) : Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes 2020m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me here in the shape of the Gerald Ryan trained Bachman (Best Odds: $10.00), who has been excellent in two runs back from a break. He resumed over 1200m at Randwick and worked home strongly against the double bias behind Dublin Lass before going to the Hawkesbury Guineas (1400m) at Rosehill and finishing off the race nicely behind impressive filly Najoom. Up to 2000m looks perfect, a strong tempo will be ideal and he has fresh legs. I see he is $13 and better to win the Derby. Take that now, because if he wins or runs very well here, that price will be halved.
Big Danger: Sadler’s Lake (Best Odds: $3.70) was given a beaut steer by Blake Shinn to win the Rough Habit (2000m) a couple of weeks back, leading all the way and winning with a fair bit of ease. Nothing from that race will turn the tables here, and that’s the traditional lead up to this and then the Derby, so he has to be rated as the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Quick Strike (Best Odds: $11.00) ran a credible fifth in the ATC Derby (2400m) before being freshened up and ran ran over 1800m a couple of weeks back at Rosehill and worked home very strongly to finish seventh to Time To Test, beaten five lengths. Barrier one, Angland back on and should be near fully fit. Hard to beat.
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Race Six (14:37) : Mitavite Australia BRC Sires Produce Stakes 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Ever since her first trial, I have been a big fan of Payroll (Best Odds: $6.50), and I’m not going to jump off here. She was desperately unlucky two back at Morphettville behind Last Bullet before going to Caulfield and just getting beat by the barrier when a narrow second to Black Vanquish. She is definitely suited by the rise to 1350m, and given her running style, she’ll be very strong late.
Big Danger: Counterattack (Best Odds: $5.50) was clearly the best of the beaten brigade in the Champagne (1200m) when fourth to Blueberry Hill. He just couldn’t quite get to the outside in time, and just couldn’t quite wind up quick enough in time. He is the J J Atkins (1600m) horse for sure, and while 1350m still might be unsuitable, he is the one with upside and timing.
Roughie: Pepperano (Best Odds: $14.00) was given a lovely steer from Damian Browne to win first up at the Sunshine Coast before going to the Champagne and working home well late when running third. 1350m will probably be as far as she wants it, so she’ll need a beaut ride, but is definitely a contender.
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Race Seven (15:17) : Urbis The Roses 2020m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Platinum Witenss and Bohemian Lily (Best Odds: $3.65). Leaning towards Bohemian Lily, because she has had three runs now for Gai since coming over from New Zealand, winning the Gold Coast Bracelet (1800m) before going to the Princess and fighting on strongly when a narrow second to Ballet Suite. I think this filly has more brilliance than staying prowess, so on that reason, she is on top.
Big Danger: The query horse is the star kiwi filly Platinum Witness (Best Odds: $2.50) , who ran a brave second in the New Zealand Oaks (2400m) before being freshened up and running a strong second at Rotorua over 1400m on a bottomless surface. I think she’s the best filly in the race talent wise, and the stable have a great record this time of year, but there’s a query about her running a strong 2000m.
Roughie: The filly that should get the soft trip is the Mick Price trained Yulong Baby (Best Odds: $16.00), who tried very hard when second over 1700m to Falago during the Warrnambool Carnival. She will love the rise to 2000m, draws well and Bowman is one of the best rider of stayers in the world.
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Race Eight (15:57) : James Boag’s Premium Doomben 10,000 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to put Generalife (Best Odds: $7.00) on top. He was once regarded as a milk drinker, but in the 12 months he has been under the care of O’Shea, he has really thrived and is now a legitimate Group l horse, and that was evident last start in the All Aged Stakes (1400m) when defying a double bias to work home strongly from the back to run fifth to Dissident. He has been freshened up since then, and he trialled recently at Randwick, winning and winning with absolute ease. The last time he a break longer than two weeks between runs was around this time last year. He won the first run, had a three week break, then bolted home in the Civic, beating home Bennetta and subsequent Epsom Handicap winner He’s Your Man. Happy to take $8.
Big Danger: Can’t really see much speed here, so on that basis only, Our Boy Malachi (Best Odds: $8.50) has to go in as the threat. He was backed as if unbeatable in the BTC Cup (1200m), and he got a relatively good time on speed, but he didn’t show much fight in the run home and whacked away for third to Hot Snitzel. I’ll put that down to the fact he had the very hard fresh run, and that BTC Cup effort could be the flat run. He has raced beyond 1200m on two occasions, both runs being the Rockhampton Newmarket (1300m), and both times he has won. Different kettle of fish here, but the lead is his, and that’s such an advantage at Doomben.
Roughie: The watch horse here is clearly Boban (Best Odds: $18.00). He was ordinary borderline pathetic during the Sydney Autumn, so Waller tipped him out for a break after the Chipping Norton. He has had two trials to prepare for his Brisbane assault, starting off with a quiet fourth behind impressive Scone winner Encostanati, then he was ridden hard and responded well to win the second and latest trial. This is the easiest first up race Boban will face since his first start under the care of Waller. If the track is firm, and if he can relax, then on his best form, he’d be a mighty chance here.
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Race Nine (16:32) : Suez Environment Fred Best Classic 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: This looks a lovely race for Miss Cover Girl (Best Odds: $11.00) to bounce back to winning form. She was ridden upside down by Bossy at Randwick in the P J Bell yet proved too slick for her rivals before she went to the Mick Dittman and tired late to finish fifth to Kuro, but I think now she needs cover, and the patient hands of D Browne have been called upon to steer her to victory, and I think that’s what will eventuate.
Big Danger: If Rekindled Power (Best Odds: $8.00) drew a gate, he’d almost be the good thing on the program. He was enormous in the Arrowfield Sprint behind Delectation, then went to the Mick Dittman and came from last on the turn to finish fourth, beaten less than a length. He again draws terribly, but handles a wet track, near peak fitness and Shinn sticks.
Roughie: Awesome Rock (Best Odds: $51.00) was just too bad to be true when he resumed at Morphettville and finished near last behind in form galloper Nicoscene. The blinkers come off now and Bowman rides, so expect improvement, and he’ll be strong late if the tempo is strong. Leaving out Sarajevo because he is an absolute dud on wet tracks.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Bachman
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Delectation
VALUE: Race Eight Number 8 Generalife
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 7, 9, 13
Leg Two: 1, 4, 12
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 12, 16
Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 11, 13, 14
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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