A crack program of racing has been assembled for this Saturday at Rosehill, with the feature race being the $125,000 Group lll San Domenico Stakes (1100m). Team Hawkes look to have a strong hand in the race with the pairing of Bugatty and Nostradamus, both of which resume from a spell and have looked sharp in recent barrier trial wins.
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Race One: Merrylands RSL Club Handicap (80) 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Scarletini (Best Odds: $6.00) in what looks to be a very even mares race. I thought she was very good two back at Randwick when making up a stack of ground late to run a close up fourth to the stablemate, and our Big Danger, Forever Crazy. She then went to Warwick Farm, and I don’t think the tight turning circuit suited this mare, so a return to a bigger track, and a rise to 1900m, along with some weight relief, should see her prove hard to beat at good odds.
Big Danger: Forever Crazy (Best Odds: $5.50) toughed it out very strongly to win that race at Randwick two back, then came back to 1400m and looked a shade disappointing behind the heavily backed La Venta in a race that was dominated by those close to the speed or rail. Back up to a more ideal trip now, has the class factor on her side, but is yet to win from seven outings on her home track, so that’s a worry, but still, she should be right in the finish from a good gate.
Roughie: Blazing Dragon (Best Odds: $6.50) has steadily progressed in two runs back from a break. Looked in need of the run first up behind Made To Order, then attacked the line late at her next outing behind Moral Victory. Gets to her own sex now and up to an ideal distance with a senior rider back aboard. Definite chance.
$500 Scarletini Free Bet
Race Two: Fairfield RSL Club Handicap (75) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on All Salsa (Best Odds: $3.20) to continue her winning ways this time in. Couldn’t have been more impressive when breaking her maiden status first up at Kembla, nearly running sub 33 for her final 600m. That effort was good enough for trainer Ron Quinton to send the filly to Canterbury, where she was crunched in betting and blitzed her rivals again. Taking on the older mares now, but her turn of foot, if she gets normal luck, should see her prove too good for these.
Big Danger: My Sabeel (Best Odds: $8.00) went enormous here last time out given she was three wide with no cover yet she kept kicking and almost kicked hard enough to beat La Venta, but that mare had the softer run on the speed. My Sabeel normally caves in when doing work in the run, she is normally at her best when cuddled and saved for the straight, like she was five back when winning at Canterbury under the guidance of Koby Jennings, who gets the ride again. With luck from the barrier, she is right in this.
Roughie: Missvonn (Best Odds: $8.00) resumes for David Vandyke after formerly being with Guy Walter. She had a pretty solid Autumn prep, culminating with a second to now stablemate Arabian Gold in the Adrian Knox and a midfield finish in the Oaks to Rising Romance. Hasn’t trialled, so may need the run, but her first up record is pretty good.
$500 All Salsa Free Bet
Race Three: Dooley’s Handicap (95) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Secessio (Best Odds: $15.00) has been given a little time off after his brave second to Queenstown in the Grafton Cup where he chased his heart out, but was no match for the turn of foot from the Waterhouse mare. Back now and looked quite good I thought in a Rosehill barrier trial last week where he wasn’t asked to do much at all, just keeping up to fitness. He gets in very well after the claim for Serg Lisnyy and absolutely loves his home track, so he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: Single (Best Odds: $9.50) is getting oh so close to winning another race, but he is having some domestic disputes with the winning post. Peeled off the back of Laidback Larry last time out and looked the winner, but just couldn’t quite get past that horse, and running through the line, the other horse was comfortably holding, so that’s a concern, but he gets down in the weights, back to 1800m and he’d love some give in the ground, and the forecast does support those hopes.
Roughie: Disclaimer (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed in the Winter Challenge and was more than satisfactory I thought behind the top tip when fourth, beaten three lengths. Goes very well second up, up to a more ideal distance and has a stack of upside left. Only query is the chance of wet ground, because he did run on a heavy track here in the Autumn and was dreadful, so that’s the worry.
$500 Secessio Free Bet
Race Four: Handicap (90) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Weinholt (Best Odds: $6.00) kicks off his four year old career off the back of a determined win over 1400m at Randwick when given a perfect ride by Blake Shinn, where he waited and waited to let down, then pushed the button at the right time and held on. Fast run 1200m will suit him perfectly, as will the four weeks between runs.
Big Danger: Wouldn’t It Be Nice (Best Odds: $11.00) ran a beauty here a fortnight back, charging home late and recording one of the fastest final splits of the meeting when third to a couple of handy types in Rock Sturdy and Lorna May. He has been up for a while, but he is still racing very well at a good level and is sure to make himself count here where it matters most.
Roughie: Skip Town (Best Odds: $7.00) tried very hard last time out when racing over this track/distance, running a narrow third to Oakfield Commands in a close finish. He had no luck on that occasion, getting stuck wide with no cover. Provided he gets in from the draw, and that he hasn’t taken too much harm from that hard run, he’ll prove hard to beat.
$500 Traitor Free Bet
Race Five: San Domenico Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: As we said from the top, Team Hawkes have the major players here and they should fight the race out. Purely on trial and raceday form, Nostradamus (Best Odds: $3.80) looks the pick of the pair. He created a big impression on debut down the Flemington straight, then had no luck in both the Blue Diamond Prelude and Blue Diamond behind Rubick and Earthquake respectively. Very sharp trial win at Hawkesbury, beating home Bring Me The Maid. That’s good enough for me.
Big Danger: Bugatty (Best Odds: $8.00) was thought highly enough by Team Hawkes to run the then two year old colt in the Lightning Stakes where he was far from disgraced behind Snitzerland. Spelled and resumed at Sportingbet Park where he did not go one yard in the heavy going, finishing second last, beaten a dozen lengths. Very nice trial win and is the more speedy horse over this distance compared to Nostradamus, so that is in his favour.
Roughie: Wandjina (Best Odds: $10.00) comes back to the races for Gai Waterhouse after a mixed Autumn. He was a scintillating first up winner at Warwick Farm, then ran fourth in both the Lonhro Plate and Todman Stakes behind Alpha Miss and Ghibellines, both quality animals. Loved the way he has trialled and he’ll be out of trouble on the speed.
$500 Nostradamus Free Bet
Race Six: Canterbury Hurlstone RSL Club Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Entirely Platinum (Best Odds: $2.30) on top. Took some big steps in the Autumn, winning three on the trot, including a win in the Group lll Sky High Stakes (1900m) here before running fourth to Junoob in the Neville Selwood (2000m). Two trials here leading up to his return to racing have been quite impressive, including his latest trial, when winning, beating home the likes of Messene and Royal Descent. This is short of his best distance, but he is classy and going towards the Caulfield Cup, so you’d expect him to take some beating against this lot.
Big Danger: Coup Ay Tee (Best Odds: $8.00) is starting to strike some form as he gears up towards a campaign across the Tasman. Looked a touch unlucky in the Winter Challenge when second to He’s Your Man, then was relegated back to third after causing interference to stablemate I’m Imposing. He is the sort of horse that when he strikes form, he usually holds it. He has the fitness on his side and a good overall record at this track/distance.
Roughie: Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $35.00) resumes here for Bjorn Baker after a great Summer/Autumn, which yielded many wins and a trip over to New Zealand to contest the Group l Auckland Cup (3200m), where he was fantastic in running second to Who Shot Thebarman, a highly talked up kiwi stayer now in the care of Chris Waller, so that form does read well, and he was very impressive in winning a barrier trial at Warwick Farm recently. Keep an eye on him heading forward.
$500 Entirely Platinum Free Bet
Race Seven: St Johns Park Bowling Club Handicap (75) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: If you backed Lyric (Best Odds: $9.00) first up here a fortnight back, sorry to bring up the nightmare that unfolded. He got badly held up along the inside for most of the straight and pretty much went to the line untested. The trial prior to that was outstanding, so he has come back really well, and only needs an ounce of luck here to go close.
Big Danger: Masterstroke (Best Odds: $10.00) finished second in that race mentioned above, and he did get the right run, and actually looked the winner 250m out, but his fitness just gave way late and he couldn’t withstand the finishing burst of Murder Of Crows in a thrilling finish. He normally runs flat second up, so that’s the obvious concern, but barrier one, relatively well in at the weights…gets his chance.
Roughie: Superstition (Best Odds: $12.00) hasn’t raced since finishing third to Flying Bay and I’m In The Money on a wet Kensington track back in April, but prior to that he was performing well in handy three year old races, including the Canberra Guineas and Gosford Guineas. Looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial win and when produced first up last time in, he should have won but had no luck. Big watch here fresh.
$500 Lyric Free Bet
Race Eight: Mounties Group Handicap (80) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: The Alfonso (Best Odds: $6.00) is coming back from 2000m at Randwick when beaten by Tarangower, who ran really well last Saturday, so the form does read quite well. It was evident he doesn’t run 2000m, so coming back to 1500m and on the fresh side looks perfect and gets the blinkers for the first time.
Big Danger: Moral Victory (Best Odds: $10.00) has been outstanding for Steven Wilson since being sent to his stable. He is a real gut buster who always gives 110% and never lies down, as we saw with his win over this track/distance last start when leading, being challenged in the straight and kicking on for victory. The negative is that the horses he beat, Hydro and Black Revolver, are milk drinkers, but his form prior is excellent.
Roughie: He’ll start shorter, but I’ll put Projectile (Best Odds: $17.00) in as the Roughie. He put together two fair wins at Canterbury back in the Autumn before failing in the Albury Cup, but recent trial efforts have been impressive, including his latest when winning by over ten lengths. Normally needs the run fresh, but first up at 1500m tells me he is forward enough to give some cheek first up.
$500 The Alfonso Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Six Numner 5 Entirely Platinum (Best Odds: $2.30)
Next Best: Race Two Number 8 All Salsa (Best Odds: $3.60)
Best Roughie: Race One Number 5 Scarletini (Best Odds: $6.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, 15
Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 14
Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 11, 15
$50 Investment = 13.88% of the dividend if successful.
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