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The smell of Spring hits Melbourne this Saturday at Caulfield with a cracking program assembled, highlighted by the $200,000 Group ll P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m). The race can be used as an ideal platform to kick off a Spring Carnival campaign, as we saw last year with Puissance De Lune before injury struck. Good horses win this race, and I suspect the 2014 edition will be a repeat, maybe even the identical result from 12 months ago with the star grey returning to the track and looking to kick off his Spring campaign the same way he did last year- with a win in the P.B. Lawrence.

 

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Race One: ANZAC Centenary Handicap (90) 1600m:Form Guide

Back Me: The lightweight of 51.5kg and the chance of a wet track sways me towards Spirits Of Heaven (Best Odds: $4.00) in a tricky mares event to kick off the card. She hadn’t done a great deal after her debut win back in June 2013, but her last two runs, both at Sportingbet Park, have resulted in tough, gritty wins in fair company, including Paddy’s Gem, a Saturday city performer herself. Bred to appreciate this distance and beyond, and the significant key is the 3kg claim for in form apprentice Regan Bayliss, meaning the mare only has to carry 51.5kg, and on a shifty track, that could be the difference between winning and losing.
Big Danger: Atlantis Dream (Best Odds: $2.65) has been a model of consistency for Darren Weir this prep, constantly running in the money and trying her guts out, as we saw last time out at the Valley where she just failed to pick up Jessy Belle, a very capable mare herself who is blacktype quality, so the form does read well, and she also gets an important 3kg claim, this time thanks to Jordan Childs.
Roughie: Acapela (Best Odds: $5.00) returned to Melbourne last start at Moonee Valley and was specked in betting, and looked the winner on the home turn when presented, but she just petered out of it late and whacked away for third to Jessy Belle and Atlantis Dream. That was her first run in nearly a month, so I am expecting improvement off that and Bowman takes the ride.

 

$500 Spirits Of Heaven Free Bet

 

Race Two: Legacy 2014 Badge Appeal Handicap 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Bagman (Best Odds: $2.60) looks the way to go here in what looks to be a fairly ordinary race. Froggy probably didn’t produce his best on the horse when racing here two back behind the Big Danger, then made amends seven days later when producing a peach ride to get the horse home at the Valley in a race which had far more depth than this. Barrier one is the big worry because he is a horse who prefers to be outside than inside, so if Froggy can somehow get away from the rail and into clear air, I can’t see him getting beat.
Big Danger: Lord Durante (Best Odds: $2.70) was given a great front running ride by Steve King to narrowly get the job done in that same race where Bagman wasn’t ridden well in over 1800m. He has failed three times at 2000m, but he looks to be more in form now and maps very well, either leading or sitting outside Voila Ici and controlling the race outside him.
Roughie: Unchain My Heart (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed after her Andrew Ramsden win with a fair eighth at the Valley to all the way winner The Cleaner in a race dominated by that particular horse and those close to the speed. She is better at Flemington, no doubting that, but in a pretty thin race, she can bob up in the money with the right run.

 

$500 Bagman Free Bet

 

Race Three: Beveridge Williams Plate 1600m:Form Guide

Back Me: Lord Of Brazil (Best Odds: $5.50) looks ready to win for mine. He has steadily got better with each outing, and there was plenty to like about his last start effort over 1400m at Flemington, especially his last 100m when fifth to Free Of Doubt in a race controlled by the two leaders. Up to the mile now, good gate, give in the ground and Rawiller takes the ride. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Fulgur (Best Odds: $5.00), from a punting perspective, has been disappointing this preparation. Yet to win a race, but continues to race well and hit the line very late, as we saw at Moonee Valley when a three length fourth to The Cleaner, where he had no chance given that horse was forced into a speed duel and the backmarkers had no winning hope. He meets a pretty even field here, gets in beautifully at the weights and Newitt sticks. Gets his chance to win, but he won’t be getting my money.
Roughie: Given he is fourth up now, it’s getting close to D-Day for Felidea (Best Odds: $14.00). Needed the run behind Vain Queen, but in his two runs since, he has got out the back and worked home strongly late. He will have to go back from the wide draw here, but the small field means he won’t be too far away, and draws to get a nice cart into the race.

 

$500 Lord Of Brazil Free Bet

 

Race Four: RSL Ramlegh Springs Handicap (90) 1400m:Form Guide

Back Me: Red Corner (Best Odds: $13.00) put behind a frustrating little run of outs with a determined all the way win at Sportingbet Park three weeks back, beating home Supreme Warrior and Zevada, with the latter winning impressively at Flemington last Saturday, so the form has held up and he is very fit for an in form trainer and jockey.
Big Danger: Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $3.10) was crunched in betting last time out at Flemington in the Provincial Plate, but was a beaten horse as soon as they straightened and tired badly to run fifth, beaten over six lengths. The freshen up will have done him the world of good, tumbles in weight and will get his chance out on the speed. Hopefully there isn’t too much pressure for his supporters.
Roughie: I’ll be interested to see how Kitten On The Run (Best Odds: $17.00) returns here. He showed promise in the Autumn, with a win here, a second in the Echuca Cup and a strong fourth to Zephyron in the Lord Mayor’s Cup at Rosehill. Ran well here first up last time in over this track/distance, albeit in a much easier race, and now here he has to carry 58.5kg. Look for him to run on late.

 

$500 Rugged Cross Free Bet

 

Race Five: Winslow Group Regal Roller Stakes 1200m:Form Guide

Back Me: Very keen to take on Moment Of Change (Best Odds: $4.60) here and look elsewhere given I think he is a massive risk here fresh. I’m quite keen on the chances of Thiamandi, who I thought was a 1000m speed demon, but he showed last time out in the Bletchingly he is certainly more than that and that he can run beyond 1000m with a dominant win over 1200m. He looks more tough, more genuine, and has the race fitness and speed on his side, so he comes right into the mix, especially if he can lead because there doesn’t seem to be too much on pace pressure apart from Hard Stride, who would be happy to take a sit, and Jemerica, who looks outclassed and will do work from the wide gate.
Big Danger: Hard Stride (Best Odds: $4.60) was terribly unlucky not to win last time out at the Valley. He bombed the start and was then ridden out of his comfort zone before picking his way through the field, and looked the winner on the turn, but was bloused by the booming finish and momentum of Under The Louvre. With a clean getaway, he’ll be up near the speed, out of trouble, and the booking of Craig Williams is a great lead.
Roughie: Pillar Of Creation (Best Odds: $13.00) tried very hard in the All Victorian Sprint final when fifth to Nearest To Pin, but it’s fair to say he is a much better horse around a bend, so returning to Caulfield, where he has won three of five outings, is a big advantage, as is drawing the paint, where he will be on the back of Thiamandi. Knockout hope.

 

$500 Moment Of Change Free Bet

 

Race Six: Lister Quezette Stakes 1100m:Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value in Kalabek (Best Odds: $8.50). Well above average three year old filly for Brent Stanley who put up a remarkable performance to win here on debut back in April given she was badly away from the gates and was last at the 250m before peeling out and unleashing powerfully late to win. Then she went to Doomben and the Lancaster where nothing really went right and had little to no luck in the run. She is an ideal type for the Thousand Guineas I think, so I’m really intrigued to see how she returns in a good race.
Big Danger: Very intrigued to see how Sunset Rock (Best Odds: $10.00) returns here for Lloyd Kennewell. Showed good promise in her opening campaign, yielding a second and a win back home in Adelaide, and that win was over Go Indy Go. That filly went on to win a number of races, including the Champagne Stakes, and ranked behind Mossfun and Earthquake as the best juvenile fillies of last season, so that form reads very well, and she breezed around in a recent barrier trial. Anticipating a big run fresh.
Roughie: Simply forgive and forget Empress O’Reilly (Best Odds: $12.00) went around first up at the Valley in what was a really messy race with horses getting away the rail, horses getting checked, horses out wide finishing the strongest. She herself had no luck, so best to put a line through that run and go back to her strong jumpout work and her debut win here back on Boxing Day, beating Fontein Ruby, and we saw how impressive that filly was on Saturday at Flemington.

 

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Race Seven: KS Environmental Vain Stakes 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: I think Mick Price holds three of the main keys here with Jabali, Cornrow and Nordic Empire. I’m pretty keen on Nordic Empire (Best Odds: $3.20) though. I was quite taken by his first up win at Moonee Valley. He wobbled around the turns, wanted to hang badly, Froggy had the whip in the right hand, but he was simply far too good for them. Takes on a near identical field here apart from the stablemates, and they are heading towards the Golden Rose, whereas Nordic Empire will poke around in these sprint races, and keep winning them if he takes on this lot every time. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Jabali (Best Odds: $4.20) showed he is a quality colt with seconds in the Blue Diamond Prelude to Rubick and the Blue Diamond to Earthquake. He was sent north to tackle the Golden Slipper, but by then he was a tired horse and needed a spell. Comfortably won a recent Caulfield jumpout, beating a bunch of so so gallopers, but the way he went about it was pretty good. Might need the hitout here, but he has class, so he must be respected.
Roughie: Zululand (Best Odds: $15.00) is the intriguing runner here. He resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig yard after a really strong Autumn campaign, which was highlighted by a win in the VRC Sires Produce and a second to star filly Go Indy Go in the Champagne. Recent jumpout at Flemington was strong when just behind the leaders, and like the second tip, he has class.

 

$500 Nordic Empire Free Bet

 

Race Eight: Back To Caulfield P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: All eyes will be on this superstar grey, Puissance De Lune (Best Odds: $3.40). Yes, he may have tapered off badly towards the end of the Spring last year, but as we saw with his ridiculously easy win in this race 12 months ago, he can make good horses look very ordinary. His trials have been very slick from all reports, and the fact he is being kept to a mile this Spring tells me that Darren Weir will have trained the zip back in his legs, and we know how good that zip is when right. It’ll be a great training effort if the horse is to win fresh, but Darren Weir has produced some amazing training feats in recent times.
Big Danger: Foreteller (Best Odds: $8.50) resumes here for Chris Waller after a tough Autumn campaign, where there was no victories, but he was very competitive against the best of the best. The highlight was a narrow third to Fiorente and Green Moon in a thrilling edition of the Australian Cup. He probably had enough after that, so I’ll forgive him for his two failures behind Silent Achiever. Liked the way he has trialled back home in Sydney, loves Caulfield and can run really well fresh.
Roughie: I’m very keen to see how Spillway (Best Odds: $10.00) returns here. He was highly talked up when coming here for David Hayes and really caught the eye at his Australian debut with a closing seventh in the Bendigo Golden Mile, beaten just over two lengths, then raced quite flat in the Neville Sellwood behind Junoob before appreciating a fast tempo in the JRA Plate at Randwick and streeting clear of his rivals. Best is over further, but look for him to find the line as he heads towards the Caulfield Cup.

 

$500 Puissance De Lune Free Bet

 

Race Nine: Australian Defence Force Handicap 1100m : Form Guide

Back Me: I think simply, if Gregers (Best Odds: $2.60) runs up to her recent jumpout Flemington win, she’ll be beating these. She couldn’t have been any more impressive in that jumpout, which was on August 8, where she led all the way and spread the field right out under a good hold. Classy Group l mare who looks well placed here and should just about take care of these.
Big Danger: Big watch on Members Joy (Best Odds: $10.00), who resumes here for Robert Smerdon. She is a very capable mare when right, but hasn’t been seen since this time last year where she was ok without being great. Two trials leading into this have been very impressive and Nick Hall, who rides her better than anyone, takes the ride.
Roughie: You’re So Good (Best Odds: $12.00) has really done bugger all since her three year old days, although she did place in a couple of stakes races during the Autumn in solid company, so perhaps I’m being a touch harsh on her, but she hasn’t won for a long time. However, she did look sharp in a recent jumpout win at Flemington. Not as impressive as Gregers, but impressive enough to suggest she has come back in good order and will be thereabouts here and throughout the Spring.

 

$500 Gregers Free Bet

 

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Best Bet: Race Nine Number 2 Gregers (Best Odds: $2.60)

Next Best: Race Seven Number 6 Nordic Empire (Best Odds: $3.20)

Best Roughie: Race Six Number 10 Kalabek (Best Odds: $8.50)

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 10

Leg Two: 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10

Leg Four: 2

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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