Cup week might be over, but the carnival action doesn’t stop at Flemington. Sandown will host their biggest raceday this weekend, with Zipping Classic Day. The feature 2400m race, worth $350,000 and carrying Group ll status, is named in honour of the war horse who won the race four times on the bounce, and is now a race desperately wanted to be won by Lloyd Williams.
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Race One: Santa’s Magical Kingdom Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: Going with Hell Or Highwater (Best Odds: $7.50) for the Hayes/Dabernig team here. David Hayes has got a fabulous record in this race, and he has a live chance here in the shape of this filly, who trialled on Monday at Cranbourne and looked very sharp when running second. She looks above average and looks to have found a winnable debut on her trial effort.
Big Danger: Thurlow (Best Odds: $2.25) almost got the money on Cup Day, but just couldn’t quite peg back Antelucan in a close go. She trialled well prior to that behind Fontiton, a stablemate who is the clear top pick in juveniles we have seen this season, so she rates here as a definite threat.
Roughie: Exacting (Best Odds: $6.50) makes his debut for Peter Moody after a good jump out last week. He was given a seriousworkout by Nolen, and while on face value it wasn’t anything special, he really did pick up when asked, and that’s always a good sign for a two year old. Looks a real professional, and that jump out was here, he has experience at the track.
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Race Two: Mack Tow Sandown Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: Going for a bit of value here in the shape of Vibrant Rouge (Best Odds: $15.00). I have backed her in her three runs this time in, and I don’t want to drop off. First up she worked home strongly out wide at Benalla before having no luck at all in the Black Pearl (1200m) behind River Delta, getting badly held up behind runners before eventually getting clear and savaging the line. She then stepped up to Group lll level on Cup Day and was luckless again behind Mahara. Taking on the boys now, but is on the limit and the field doesn’t appear to be that strong, so for mine, she is worth an each way gamble.
Big Danger: Pornichet (Best Odds: $2.40) produced a ripping Australian debut for Gai Waterhouse at Flemington on Derby Day, savaging the line late from the back to run fourth to Hucklebuck, who came out and won a Group l last weekend. Form reads well, he has upside, is a second up winner, and is well weighted.
Roughie: General Groove (Best Odds: $13.00) let down strongly to win two back at Bendigo, then ran on Cup Day at Flemington and got the job done again, aided by a brilliant ride from Tommy Berry. Steps up to Group lll level now, and although not well in at the weights, he is absolutely flying and races very well at the track.
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Race Three: City Of Greater Dandenong Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: It was hard to watch if you backed Wine Tales (Best Odds: $2.50) on Cup Day…deary me. It was through no fault of jockey Tim Clark; The horse just didn’t get luck when required and really savaged the line when eventually clear. Her win prior was outstanding and the form has held up, so I am definitely forgiving of her and buttering up here.
Big Danger: More Radiant (Best Odds: $4.20) is one of the better maiden gallopers in Australia. She is competing a pretty good level, but just can’t quite crack it for a win. She was enormous in defeat last time out at the Valley in the Crockett when second to the flying Tawteen. There will be no on pace bias here, touch wood, up to 1400m looks ideal and she finds a good race. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Dual Star (Best Odds: $5.50) was hopeless first up at Warwick Farm, but she didn’t handle the wet track, then went to Oaks Day at Flemington and was excellent without a great deal of luck when sixth to Onemorezeta in what was a really strong race. 1400m and back to a bending track looks ideal, and she did work very well earlier this week at Flemington.
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Race Four: Sportingbet Sandown Cup 3200m:
Back Me: Under the weight scale, I can’t see anything in the second half of the field winning. I am going to be forgiving of Shoreham (Best Odds: $7.50) and his Lexus failure. Class was perhaps a bit much, but he was ridden completely upside down and had nothing left for the finish. Best to put a pen through that and go back to his previous two outings, where he was five lengths of Lucia Valentina in the Turnbull and the same margin away in the Geelong Cup. He will have no qualms running the 3200m and is in very well at the weights.
Big Danger: Massiyn (Best Odds: $3.40) has bounced back to form at his past couple, running a closing fourth at the Valley to Pheidon, then was beaten a lip in the Bendigo Cup by Bring Something. Untried beyond 2400m, but given his tough nature, he gives the impression he will handle it. But if not, his class might be enough.
Roughie: Unchain My Heart (Best Odds: $26.00) has found the class of the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup too much, but at Flemington she wasn’t too bad I thought for a horse regarded as the rank outsider. She did beat six runners home, and it was a brutally run Melbourne Cup, so she got a big pass mark for mine, and coming back this level should see her prove awfully hard to beat provided she hasn’t taken too much harm from the run.
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Race Five: Deadly Design Zipping Classic 2400m:
Back Me: A cold ride and some good fortune got Prince Of Penzance (Best Odds: $3.50) home in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). They could have thrown the dice and had a crack at the Cup by winning the Lexus , but they instead ran last week in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and he looked the winner 300m out, but couldn’t quite peg back the margin on Le Roi. First big test here, but he is on the up and the drop to 2400m is a big tick.
Big Danger: Spillway (Best Odds: $4.60) was excellent at the start of the Spring, then lost his way a bit after his failure in the Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick before being freshened and then running an absolute beauty in the Mackinnon behind Happy Trails. I don’t think he runs 2400m, but if ever he was going to, this is the race. Barrier one, weak field…no excuses.
Roughie: Rawnaq (Best Odds: $21) was a strong winner at Caulfield two back, then went to Flemington last weekend and it’s best you put the pen through that run. Walker was dictated to from the wide barrier and the pace was very slow, so it was really hard for him to figure in the finish. He actually did well under the circumstances. He did run well in this race a couple of years, and this field is considerably weaker, so at around the $21 mark, he is worth including in multiples.
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Race Six: Mypunter.com Eclipse Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Putting Escado (Best Odds: $6.00) on top. He has been outstanding in all four runs this Spring, in particular last week at Flemington in the Emirates Stakes when making up good ground late behind Hucklebuck in a race dominated by those close to the speed. Could be heading over to Perth for their carnival, so I expect him to take some beating here, and given he is a Group l winner from last year, gee he looks well weighted.
Big Danger: All you can do is win and that is exactly what Sonntag (Best Odds: $9.00) has done, winning his last three including a Queensland Derby. He was massive in winning the Sale Cup first up given he carried topweight and the race was run at a strong tempo. Weighted up to his best, but he is on the fresh side and Chad Schofield, who steered the horse in the Derby, takes over, so that can only be a positive. Really hard to beat.
Roughie: Tipping a huge run from Zabisco (Best Odds: $9.50). I was on him on Cup Day, and he loomed as the winner 300m out, but given it was just his second run in a year, the fitness levels just conked out late and he weakened to run sixth, beaten only three lengths. Should be just about there fitness wise now, good gate, on the limit, McEvoy steers, stable flying…ticks plenty of boxes, as does Bel Thor, who worked home strongly in that same race on Cup Day.
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Race Seven: Sportingbet Sandown Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: I only see two winning chances here- Lord Aspen and Rekindled Power. But I am a huge fan of Lord Aspen (Best Odds: $4.60). Potentially, he could be the best three year old sprinter/miler in Australia IMO. He has no idea what he is doing out there on the track, but is unbeaten and is doing it easily, like last week at Flemington. He floated to the front 300m out and didn’t know what to do, but when he was challenged by the horse inside, he easily found another gear and won comfortably. A very exciting prospect, and I am confident he will just about get the job done.
Big Danger: Rekindled Power (Best Odds: $4.60) is a beautifully bred son of Redoute’s Choice who broke his maiden in dominant fashion on Bendigo Cup Day, spacing his rivals over 1400m to win by a widening three lengths, and ran the second quickest 1400m across four races on the program. He has worked very well at Flemington since, should relish the mile, as well as the bigger track.
Roughie: Ducal Castle (Best Odds: $8.00) put them away impressively first up at Mornington, then really caught the eye last week behind Lord Aspen with an eye catching third after getting a long way back in the run. Up to the mile looks ideal for him, and from gate one, he won’t be too far away from the speed and won’t be giving Lord Aspen such a huge start.
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Race Eight: Kevin Heffernan Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: I’m keen on Generalife (Best Odds: $3.60) here. He has been excellent in three runs this Spring. Had no luck when resuming at Randwick in the Premiere, then went to the Moonga and ran third to Lucky Hussler, then was third again, this time to Hucklebuck, on Derby Day. That pair ran the quinella in the Emirates last Saturday, so that’s clearly the best form for this, and he is in beautifully under the WFA scale.
Big Danger: Charlie Boy (Best Odds: $7.00) wasn’t wanted at all in betting on Derby Day, but it was understandable given the horse that won the race is the next sprinting star of Australia in Deep Field. Charlie Boy wasn’t too bad actually and did make up ground late to run fourth. Drops big time in class here and is another suited at WFA.
Roughie: Nearest To Pin (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed from a Winter prep with a strong fifth to Deep Field, and produced a similar run to Charlie Boy. The key to this horse and his chances is the fact he is the one with fresh legs and has a really impressive 1300m record. Second up stats aren’t great, but taking away a couple of runners here, and the field isn’t great.
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Race Nine: Le Pines Summoned Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for Rose Of Choice (Best Odds: $4.40). The former Perth mare has had two runs for Team Snowden and she has been outstanding in each. First up she ran in the Nivison and was caught three wide on the speed and only went down narrowly to a Group l performer in Avoid Lightning, then went to Cup Day and was again pipped close to home, this time by stablemate Mahara. Gun draw, well weighted under the scale, cherry ripe fitness wise and Mark Zahra has had a fabulous Spring carnival.
Big Danger: Interested to see Politeness (Best Odds: $5.00) run here. I would have thought that her Spring was done and dusted after her seventh in the Myer Classic to Bonaria, but Robert Smerdon has accepted with her. I don’t think she can run a strong race beyond 1400m, but there are a couple of reasons why she perhaps can here. She has the class, weighted beautifully and the forecast for rain in the week will be perfect for her, because she needs give in the ground.
Roughie: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $11.00) has been a real disappointment for the past season or so, but gee if ever she was going to bounce back to any sort of positive form, this is the race. I will forgive her for her failure behind Mahara on Cup Day given she was stuck wide with no cover. Last chance for her here though IMO. Needs to run a good race.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Lord Aspen
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Generalife
VALUE: Race Two Number 5 Vibrant Rouge
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 12
Leg Two: 2, 4, 9
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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