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Rosehill is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday with another strong eight race card. There are no highlight races, but there still is good depth amongst the program, so hopefully there is value to be found. The weather is fine, the track is good and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One: Cellarbrations Appin Plate 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Interesting race with plenty of trials to sort out. I’ll be putting Paceman (Best Odds: $1.50) on top. He is a first starter for Team Snowden who won a trial at Randwick by nearly seven lengths under no real pressure, and ran the second quickest time of the morning, which is always a good indicator. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Philosophy (Best Odds: $3.70) is a well bred first starter for Godolphin who trialled quite impressively at Warwick Farm recently, winning quite comfortably, and the time was quite solid, easily the quickest out of the two year olds. Stable is on fire with their babies, and they have another good one here.
Roughie: Right Of Way (Best Odds: $6.00) is on debut here for Gai Waterhouse off the back of a really nice trial win at the end of last month at Randwick. She has been the talked up horse this week, with Gai saying this filly will win the Oaks in Melbourne next year, so despite the fact she will be an eventual stayer, she does look sharp enough to run a competitive race here.

 

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Race Two: Cellarbrations Blacktown Handicap (72) 1300m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going to put the younger sister of Pierro, Snow White (Best Odds: $9.00), on top here. She has put it together in recent times, winning two on the bounce, including an impressive last start win at Warwick Farm when letting down with a powerful finishing burst. Weighted right up to her best here, which is the concern, but she is in form and drawn well.
Big Danger: Lucy’s Look (Best Odds: $5.50) ran on Cup Day at Randwick and was unlucky not to win there when second to Sebrina given she didn’t get much room in the straight and wasn’t allowed to build up momentum like the winner did. She won’t get stuck in traffic here from the wide gate, and she strikes a very winnable race.
Roughie: House Of Hingis (Best Odds: $14.00) has been disappointing in two runs back from a break, both of which in easier company. First up she had her chance when fourth at Moe, then went to the Valley and was just even behind Wawail. Perhaps a trip away from her natural surroundings of Caulfield and racing clockwise could spark improvement, because she did show last time in that she can be competitive at stakes level.

 

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Race Three: The Grange Wyoming Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Church Boy (Best Odds: $2.60) has really put it together since joining the David Vandyke stable, winning three on the trot, including his last two in dominant fashion at Warwick Farm. He has been smashing them up there, and now has to bring that to Saturday grade. This is a decent field, but he is a very decent horse who could step up to something like the Villiers. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: The other in form horse lining up here is Frespanol (Best Odds: $3.00) for Gai and Tommy. This horse hit the line best to win first up at Kensington, then ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and was caught wide all the way, yet kept surging, eventually hit the lead and clung on to win impressively. Should ping over from the wide gate and sit near the speed and prove hard to run down.
Roughie: Gangster’s Choice (Best Odds: $15.00) resumed over 1350m here a fortnight ago and really caught the eye with his closing furlong behind Hera after settling last in the run. If he could sit a touch closer from the good draw, with the claim for Winona Costin, he will be a threat for sure.

 

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Race Four: Whyte & Gilmour Handicap (95) 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Agent (Best Odds: $7.50) sat much more handy than normal when resuming over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and was very good when second to new stablemate Our Boy Malachi. I am tipping him to go back to the old tactics of riding him cold at the back given there is so much speed here, and he can pounce late with luck in running.
Big Danger: Green Beret (Best Odds: $2.60) can be forgiven for his failure over this track/distance last time out given he was caught three wide on the hot speed and was asked to carry 62kg. He loomed to win, but it was his first run in a couple of months and the work just told late. Second up record doesn’t read well, but he drops big time in weight now, so I can overlook the poor second up stats and give him a serious chance here.
Roughie: Dream Choice (Best Odds: $12.00) had his first run for Gary Moore at this track over 1200m a few weeks ago and worked home very strongly late when sixth to You’ll Never, beaten two lengths. He drew barrier eight there, and now draws the paint. He has shown in the past some gate speed, so if Tommy can take advantage of that, he won’t be far away, and he will be very strong late.

 

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Race Five: Cellarbrations @ Valentine Handicap 1900m: Form Guide

Back Me: Beyond Thankful (Best Odds: $5.50) had been quite ordinary this Spring until last start when racing over 2000m here where he ran an unlucky fourth to Grand Marshal, getting badly held up in the straight when appearing to going really well. Form has been franked with that horse winning on Cup Day at Flemington. Beyond Thankful has found form, and when he did that last prep, he held it for several runes, so I am hoping that trend continues here.
Big Danger: Malice (Best Odds: $2.25) worked home nicely over 1800m here a couple of weeks back when second to Best Case, getting a split near the inside and getting to the line okay, but not well enough to win. I think he takes a drop in depth to this now and stays at the same weight, as well as drawing a good gate again.
Roughie: There was a bit of specking for Midsummer Sun (Best Odds: $10.00) in that race won by Best Case, but when they sprinted on the turn, he couldn’t go with them and just plugged late for fifth. He gets a senior rider back aboard and is in a very thin race here. If he brought any of his old form, he’d go close here.

 

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Race Six: Cellarbrations Kingswood Handicap 1350m: Form Guide

Back Me: I am sticking very solid with possibly the in form horse in New South Wales at the moment, Road To Summer (Best Odds: $8.00). He has become a real favourite of mine in recent months, continually winning by burning the candle at both ends of the race, like he did when winning over this track/distance last start. Rises in depth, but tumbles in weight, and as we know, if it’s a firm track at Rosehill, with the rail out, leaders are advantaged.
Big Danger: You’ll Never (Best Odds: $5.00) absolutely savaged the line to win first up over 1200m here in what was arguably a stronger race than what he faces here, and he drops a half kilo, plus will get a hot speed from the top tip. He will again be steaming home late, it’ll just be a question of how far back he gets.
Roughie: Said Com (Best Odds: $21.00) trialled very well before running a closing fourth to Hera a couple of weeks back after settling near the tail of the field in the run. He won’t be too far away from the good gate now, he is fitter, on the limit and he does save his best racing for his home track, so he has to be given a chance.

 

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Race Seven: Cellarbrations In Hills Handicap (75) 1350m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value here in Tableaux (Best Odds: $35.00). Former Darley galloper who has had a couple of preps in Newcastle for Todd Howlett, and he has been quite good. He has had four runs this prep, and despite not winning, he has caught the eye, in particular when a fast finishing third in the Muswellbrook Cup last week behind proven city horse Pitt Street. It’s been a while since Tableaux has been in Sydney, but a fast pace and a big track will be right up his alley, and is worth an each way ticket.
Big Danger: Winsomemore (Best Odds: $6.50) had his first run for Joe Pride at Warwick Farm back in late September and was simply dreadful, running last, but was later found to have been lame, so there were excuses. He was ordered back to the trials, and did that last week at Warwick Farm and went brilliantly. Tipping a major form reversal here despite the wide draw.
Roughie: Choice Larga (Best Odds: $13.00) was a touch unlucky when resuming at Warwick Farm. He was narrowly beaten by Vashka, but that horse had the full momentum while Choice Larga had to change course, and at Warwick Farm, it’s hard to do that and win. He meets Vashka a kilo better at the weights for a narrow defeat. Great value there I think.

 

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Race Eight: Bacardi Untameable Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Looking for one at odds in the last and I believe there is one near the bottom in the shape of Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $21.00). I was really impressed by the way she finished off her race over the 1100m here a fortnight back behind Shiraz, making up a stack of ground from last on the turn. Up to 1200m is a tick, senior rider back on, drawn much better and strikes a winnable race.
Big Danger: Vanilla Princess (Best Odds: $4.60) ran along at a strong tempo on Cup Day at Randwick and looked as if she was going to be caught 100m out, but she kicked strongly enough to fend off her rivals and win. Steps up to Saturday company now, but she has no weight on her back and will again scoot along in front and prove a tough nut to crack.
Roughie: Miss Tenpins (Best Odds: $18.00) resumed under the Canterbury lights and worked home powerfully late to run a narrow third to Terra Amata. She has some really good from the Autumn behind her, including a sixth to Politness and a seventh to Estonian Princess, with both of those mares going on to perform at Group l level. That form reads well for a race like this, and one thing to consider a real positive is that Chad Lever, a noted heavyweight rider, is on the minimum with 54kg, a sign he must think this mare is a chance.

 

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BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Road To Summer

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 5 Beyond Thankful

VALUE: Race Eight Number 14 Fiftyshadesofgrey

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 5, 6

Leg Two: 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8, 12, 14

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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